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In your dreams Ed.
Word on the street is JOG will be sold to a buyer once confirmation of Serica goes through. £25.00 per share being talked abot. And in connection with a new role for our current CEO, well we all know where there is a vacancy. No wonder both CEOs are increasing there share holdings . Hence any day now watch this space. This is the worst kept secret ever. I am off to have another pint at the Globe in Buckfastleigh. I hope to meet Dick there once JOG is sold.
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I think the backdating was always virtue signalling . The industry wouldn't take that without a long and expensive legal challenge. Hopefully the industry has made it clear to labour that their tax revenues will decline in the face of increased rates - more must be ready to up-sticks and go elsewhere. Others can always soft-pedal the extraction plans so profits are pushed out until govt of the day play fair. My guess is the debate about the Laffer Curve (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve) will be raging within two quarters of NS production profits & tax revenues once Starmer et al are in power.
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/09/rishi-sunak-latest-news-labour-green-pledge-starmer-live/so increased and extended but not backdated, could be better, could be worse.
Has just announced it’s raising the ‘windfall tax levy’ from 75 to 78%. No idea if there is a minimum level for the oil px to be for levy to be introduced. With Gas at multi year lows I’m not sure what profits there will be if oil falls in a similar fashion. Think I’ve also read they r closing ‘the loophole’ re investment- which I think might be v v bad news for tge industry.
Why bother to invest if you’re going to get taxed at 75 or 78%? Wonder why I bother to invest in anything sometimes?!
Onthe6
If it was a sale the sp would have crashed. I am inclined to agree with Rollo, (Today 10:31).
If it’s not a transfer, imho it’s more likely to be a sell. But it’s kind of good, hopefully seller is now gone. Good luck all. Up and up we go!
"Or just a simple transfer transaction?? Who knows."
Thats the most likely event between related parties.
Or just a simple transfer transaction?? Who knows.
Not sure. It was clearly late reporting. If you look at the price actions over the last 5 days, it slumped all of a sudden yesterday or since Monday, Tuesday? That suggests a huge sell. Now buy around 185. It connects the dots. Whichever, does it really matter? Current price is below 190. We want it to be way above. Good luck. The only way for the directors and longtime holders to make any money is to sell the company, timing as per Dick’s posts. I said this many times before but was shouted down. Have a good weekend!
Based upon this mornings activity and price movement the 400k trade was clearly a buy and it looks as though MM's depressed the price earlier in the week to accommodate those purchases.
A lot of recent trades shown as sales have been buys going through below the share price. I suspect these were also buys.
Seems odd for the price not to have budged, I've never bothered transferring shares to a family member but could it be one is a buy and another a sell on a stock transfer?
............unlikely to be a sale...........price would be through the floor if it was........
jmofwiw - mbw
'The Environmental Statement and draft Field Development Plan for the Buchan project have been submitted, with completion of Serica's acquisition of a 30% interest is expected to occur during February.'
From SQZ.
Dick
"We'll probably find out more on Monday morning"
Confirmation of the deal would be good, an out of the blue full bid even better, dreaming again.
Thanks for that, MPO818 - interesting reading. Some have questioned why SQZ doesn't use a part of its significant cash pile and buy JOG outright. JOG and its people would be included in the deal, so there'd be an existing CEO with a good track record within the enlarged entity, who SQZ could do worse than considering as a successor to Mitch Flegg. I don't rate MF as highly as some others. The Tailwind acquisition was strange (I'm being reserved).
We'll probably find out more on Monday morning. I'm hoping we'll at least get confirmation of the legal completion of the SQZ FO, which will put a further $6.8m in JOG's bank account and perhaps provide a boost to the SP.
Malcy's most recent commentary on JOG went as follows:
"This is a fantastic state of the nation update from JOG who are making huge progress at the Greater Buchan Area where following a double farm-out with highly respectable partners the company is fully carried and shouldn’t need to raise any more money in the foreseeable future.
Indeed the longer term outlook for cash is extremely promising, JOG has 20% of a very substantial project which will generate a highly satisfactory free cash flow, this from a low carbon development at Buchan which will lead the industry in returning cash to the partners.
With a target of first production in late 2026 CEO Andrew Benitz and his team has given shareholders a huge value proposition that with all that cash will undoubtedly make for a very decent proposition and be attractive on value grounds. JOG shares are amongst the cheapest around and with such a massive upside on the books I am solid in my Target Price of £10 per share, it might be more… "
dyor
Malcys latest blog covered this and I thought since SQZ are now a partner in the Buchan project JOG investors may be interested- "top of the 2024 bucket list" well if they do well maybe we will too.
Mitch Flegg is one of the most experienced, high quality CEO’s in world energy not least in the UK and it is a serious blow to Serica that he has decided to move on after two spells at the company. This news is to me a shock but not a surprise as they say, in one sense with the deals he has done in recent years and the one he fought off he has a 100% track record and Serica rightly sits at the top of the new Bucket List.
Also, having met with him very recently, whilst he said nothing about this I get the impression that firstly SQZ is so well run that it runs itself very well, not a criticism but he has assembled a highly professional, experienced team that deliver time and again and secondly, frustration with the rating, something shared by other CEO’s may have contributed to his decision.
Next week a group of Serica followers are gathering in Scotland for a Capital Markets event, it will be difficult for it not to become a Mitch tribute extravaganza. Nevertheless, it will not be easy for the nominations committee to step up and find a replacement, after all, how do you replace the best in the business….?
Mitch Flegg commented in some depth on the deal, I found his final sentence unusual, but very encouraging
Below is the start of his statement and the final sentence - most strange that he is leaving as they announce results.
"We are delighted with this transaction which gives Serica a significant interest in the proposed Greater Buchan Area project, potentially adding a third production hub and further resilience to Serica's North Sea portfolio. In common with our other hubs, the GBA plan involves utilising existing infrastructure - in this case an FPSO - with the possibility of exploiting multiple accumulations in the area. Moreover, the development has been designed to deliver an industry-leading low level of carbon emissions, consistent with Serica's objective of reducing the overall carbon intensity of its activities.
We congratulate Jersey Oil & Gas for having created and progressed the GBA project before recently transferring operatorship to NEO Energy. We look forward to working with them and NEO, including the latter's experienced and well-respected project team."
Dick, I’ve just got round to reading your post from later this afternoon and it looks like you’ve already answered my question on £6ps.
I reckon we’re on a winner!
You will be my first guest at Jaywick.
Well, Mr Upham, all these letters and terminologies: NPV , LAV , DCF , I dunno it’s all alphabet stuff to me.
What I do know, after a night out at bingo where I made a bob or two: gotta be quick but my good luck pencil served me well, yeah, where was I? Ah yes what I do know is that in order to buy the mobile home my girlfriend (don’t tell the wife) has her eye on down at the coast (Jaywick Sands) I need ‘only’ £5.75. So Dick , if you could fire up your abacus, can you please tell me what magic alphabet assumptions NPV, DCF, PDQ anything you like , to get me to be able to buy my mobile home?
Maybe it’s next week? Or at least in time for summer and what with the Klimate and Kost of Lyving Krisis, summer is due around the end of Feb this year, or so Grunter Turdberg and someone on the Telly (BBC) would have us believe.
I’d happily round my target price up to £6 if it makes your calculations easier: none of those fiddly decimal things but accountants can probably handle such things. I’m sure I could find a home for the extra 5 bob per share , maybe an inflatable jacuzzi?
See last sentence below. Might JOG get a mention in SQZ's trading update?? Haven't so far been able to decipher the code re MF's departure
" (Sharecast News) - Serica Energy announced a significant leadership change on Thursday, with Mitch Flegg set to step down from his role as chief executive officer and director.
The AIM-traded firm said the transition was expected to happen after the publication of its 2023 full-year financial results.
Flegg would continue to serve as an advisor to Serica until after its 2024 annual general meeting, expected to be held in June.
In the interim period, David Latin, the current chairman of the board, would assume the position of interim CEO until a long-term successor was appointed.
The board said it had initiated the search for a suitable successor with the requisite skills to lead Serica through its next phase of development.
It said the search was being overseen by Malcolm Webb, chairman of the nominations committee and senior independent director, with the support of external advisors.
"It has been a great privilege to lead Serica since 2017 and to be part of building a strong platform with a great team," Mitch Flegg said.
"Serica is firmly established as a leading listed UK E&P company and in a strong position following the Tailwind acquisition and planned changes to executive and board positions.
"Now is the right time for me to help support the handover to a CEO to lead the next phase of Serica's growth and development and I believe there is an exciting future ahead."
Serica said it would release an operational trading update on 5 February".
dyor
For 3 consecutive days now there has been a 25k buy going through in the latter half of the day. Assuming the buyer is the same person each day, someone seems to be taking an interest in JOG.
Ran out of road.......................DCF/NPV, NAV, recent deals – you decide
dyor