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Itaconix Launches Biobased Functional Additives for Decorative Paints :
https://coatings.specialchem.com/news/product-news/itaconix-biobased-functional-additives-decorative-paints-000221458
Great interview. Been invested a good while now bur one of the things I've struggled to get my head round is direct competitors. Great to hear Jon confirm that when it cones to non fossil ingredients, there isn't a competitor. That's very reassuring!
I still think we can expect future govt policy around micro plastics to give us a good knee up
(Accidentally posted too soon)
I presume the customer would just revert to the previous (pre-ITX) formulation, so wouldn't really take any time to change back.
Maybe the cost of old ingredients came down and used that as leverage against ITX?
I'm not holding my breath for the customer to come back, but I would like to see the lost low-margin profit replaced by higher margin beauty and hygiene sales.
I p
Justdeezerts commented -
"Apparently, our 'lost' customer will more than likely have to replace ITX product with petroleum-based alternatives - well, good luck with that!"
I guess this could take a while so they are probably still using ITX product and will very likely need more before they reformulate, therefore, the reduction in revenue may not be as much as forecast in 2024.
Bearded - Let’s see how well your post ages. Today’s rise on a bit of publicity won’t change the fundamentals for 2024.
No hidden agenda. I’ve made my intentions very clear.
I believe the time to buy will be next January before the H2 trading update. That’s the earliest we will get any insight into the expected improved margins because of the timing of the exit of the largest customer during H1.
I continue to maintain there will be share price drift downwards unless the company salvages a deal with its largest customer. The figures don’t lie!
Hi DB/Elsol
Spredsheet updated to show 160 metric Tonnes of raw material delivered this year so far.
https://www.seair.co.in/us-import/product-itaconic-acid/i-chemtan-co-inc/e-qingdao-kehai-biochemistry-co-limited.aspx
1 16/06/2022 COHECTASE2035082 Itaconix 19800 20PKG
2 03/07/2022 KLSQTAOKW2204354 Itaconix 19800 20PKG
3 04/08/2022 EXDO62Y0220197 Itaconix 19800 20PKG
4 25/08/2022 EXDO62Y0220796 Itaconix 19800 20PKG
5 15/10/2022 KLSQTAOKW2208079 Itaconix 39600 40PKG
6 19/03/2023 TXSLQD2302Y376 Chemtan/Itaconix 19800 20PKG
7 19/03/2023 TXSLQD2302Y375 Chemtan/Itaconix 39600 40PKG
8 02/05/2023 UULNQD23030547 Chemtan 19800 20PKG
9 01/07/2023 TXSLQD2305Y361 Chemtan/Itaconix 59400 60PKG
10 09/02/2024 UULNQD23120454 Chemtan 39600 40PKG
11 15/02/2024 UULNQD24010550 Chemtan 39600 40PKG
12 20/02/2024 https://www.seair.co.in/us-import/product-itaconic-acid/i-chemtan-co-inc.aspx Chemtan 39600 40PKG
13 25/03/2024 https://www.seair.co.in/us-import/product-itaconic-acid/i-chemtan-co-inc.aspx Chemtan 39600 40PKG
ATB
AJP
Good interview with Ian King on the Business Section - a great promotional opportunity, well taken!
Back to JS's presentation - I listened carefully to the explanation of the lost customer and it was interesting to hear that the breakdown in negotiations was NOT as a result of failing to agree a price increase, but related to ITX refusing to give away to this (greedy?) long-standing customer, all of the post-pandemic global cost savings attributable to ITX's unit cost.
Presumably the cost-savings demanded were more than the profit ITX had been making on the $2m contract - so JS walked away and good on him for holding his nerve.
Yes, a major set back in revenue streams and profitability by about 12 months, but rather have this pragmatic conclusion, instead of reporting results next year that we are selling volume product at a loss.
Apparently, our 'lost' customer will more than likely have to replace ITX product with petroleum-based alternatives - well, good luck with that!
We look forward to welcoming back this customer, next time with cap in hand - so, fingers crossed....
GLA and DYOR
WOW very surprised. Good to John. Brilliant exposure on mainstream Sky business news
Agreed BD.
Agendas hidden in plain sight. Lol.
And yet it's currently back up 17% this morning. Glad I bought at 135p yesterday rather than listen to so-called Smartinvestment calling out 110p .
High profile stuff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDWacMhmvps
10 minutes into the video.
Can only be good to have that level of exposure.
ATB
AJP
Also the crooked MM's and the way the small cap market is run, any weakness in share price is manipulated, mm's will be taking every opportunity to steal these cheap shares.
ATB
But's. Lol.
Good morning LTH's.
It's. Burt's and Maybe's?..?
My own personal opinion, is that the interview was one of the most honest ive seen .
I also believe that these guys would not let a large customer walk, if they either have them in a corner? Or they have someone more lucrative waiting in the background to take up the slack.
I see the share price as grossly oversold.
OIMHO.
ATB
Thanks for the acknowledgment Dougerboy. For those who have followed my posts here over the past 3 years you will know I am not a day trader and I am pro-Itaconix.
Unfortunately as soon as news of the loss of the largest customer dropped and the revised forecast income for 2024, I worked out that this put us back 1 year which was confirmed by their broker and in yesterdays presentation.
Unless they manage to renegotiate with their largest 2023 customer the share price will drift down to where we were at the start of the year. That means 110p to 120p. It’s even feasible we touch 100p. Ask yourself why invest now when we are months away from H2 trading update at the end of January 2025. Holding Itaconix shares during the next 8 months is like dead money unless they pull a rabbit out the hat.
SP. But forecast gross profits are looking above average for chem industry (premium) so all we need is enough volume at this profit level ( ie plant capacity utilisation needs to go up which looks highly probable given current trajectory of underlying growth). Funny thing is if tomorrow we re acquired this one marginal customer we lost; ITX investors would buy the stock back up to say 200p-250p; it doesn't make intuitive or logical sense that this marginal contract is worth that uplift in market cap. Its optical only at revenue comfort level.
IMO that's what's going on here and very much short term ism investment horizons for some of the investor base. The valuation defies logic of :
1. Prior professional fund raise around 250p over a year ago offset by worst case we are 1 year behind EBITDA delivery; net net zero change
2. Ability to fill plant more aggressively as price takers in H2 if we need or want to
3. A few diversification channels are now at cusp of conversion and probability of market access is lower than 1 year ago for sure
4. Management confidence on upside new client opps at higher profit potential
5. Free cash war chest that now seem in worst case tev projecton that will not be spent in capex duplicate plant in next 12 months
6. Capacity to expand quicker if we suddenly get demand.
7. Valuation Multiples now look odd after considering Free cash
A solid business? It has never made a profit and now we are told revenues are no longer increasing. Neither indicate that it is a solid business. However, i do agree that in the medium term this could do well, however, many AIM investors are too impatient, hence the drop
Chardude - its well oversold due to a few day trader sellers and will come back since its so cheap today. ITX is a solid business and never looked so good in the medium term as per John S CEO - it will rebound for sure in coming months with news on upside developments.
Honestly it's madness how much this has gone down based on what?? The FTSE is laughing stock.
Don't know how the rest of you are doing but every AIM share I've got has had such a battering in the last couple months, even the ones that have had several positive RNS's. Half tempted to cash everything out and move markets altogether...
Down 15% today on a measly 30k shares traded. What a joke AIM is. SI called it right. If it goes down anymore I’ll be hitting the buy button. Back to 2.8p in old money!
I can see the markets are not the best at the moment but I hope the next RNS from ITX is a good one cos a nearly 25% loss in two days is painful.
I am satisfied after yesterday's presentation. Never a nice thing to prevent loss of a customer.
I got the sense that there are bigger projects in the background. It would be nice to have an RNS everytime we signed up a new customer.
Interesting to see what happens in the leather business.
Sorry all but think I missed this - they said they'd be issuing an RNS shortly relating to a new product? That's quite exciting if so.