Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Pleased to note that JPM see things in a more positive light.
Major bounce back in the States. Monday may not be so bad. GWA
What sort of transport? Car, truck, rail, ship, aircraft?
What do you propose a method to get through the windless foggy days? Nuclear, hydro, battery, hydrogen storage?
How do you intend to get around potential constraints on access to rare earth supplys
I understand where you are coming from that car transport is an issue but I don't have answers to these questions of mine apart from hydrogen. I also don't see compressed air a reliable alternative. It is an old idea from the IMechE and it is run by the old Train lobby there. Not realistic just so much cold air.
In light of the ongoing developments, I thought I’d answer some of the questions that some posters asked.
Why did I bother write about my doubts on the value of this (and other hydrogen related) shares, when I no longer hold any? Because I’m genuinely interested and concerned that we might end up investing a lot of efforts for the energy transition in an area which will end up slowing down the transition. I think that as a society we would get a better return (in terms of avoided CO2) by pushing for more electrification. Someone who made this very clear, based on physics/thermodynamics and eventually efficiency of investment, is Paul Martin. Look for his posts on LinkedIn.
Having said this, I’m still very much in favour of green hydrogen to be used in industrial processes (fertilizer, steel, industrial processes). But not for burning or transport.
This share is still on my watch list. I might get back in when it drops to 150. That’s what I see as a realistic price based on the mid term market once the projects are starting to come in. But based on technology readiness and current prices, I expect delays and teething problems. There sure will be plenty of projects started based on how keen the EU is to make an impact. But for this to pick up in commercial terms, I see a time horizon of 10+ years. Which will give it plenty of time to drop to levels I might be more comfortable buying.
GLA
Verticas, I suspect you have a vested interest elsewhere. The feasibility assessments have been done for offshore hydrogen and it is cost competitive. Read the feasibility study for yourself: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/866375/Phase_1_-_ERM_-_Dolphyn.pdf
Bilboburgler, bit off topic but working in the field (quite literally), agriculture is one that interests me. About 10 years ago, New Holland developed a hydrogen powered tractor -
https://agriculture.newholland.com/eu/en-uk/about-us/whats-on/news-events/2011/nh2
- this was shelved I believe and they went on to look at methane. The thinking being that farmers could utilize methane produced at an o farm AD plant.
https://agriculture.newholland.com/eu/en-uk/equipment/products/agricultural-tractors/t6-methane-power
I'm not sure about engineers but I'm an Engineer but let's just look at NOx and burning. Most NOx comes from incomplete combustion in the presence on Nitrogen. The main source of this is internal combustion engines which are driven from fossil fuels. H2 could be used in such highly inefficient engines but it would be better to use in far more efficient fuel cells which do not generate large amounts of NOx.
I'll leave you to think about decarbonising Agriculture, Flights, Steel, Cement, Ships, Heavy Trucks without hydrogen.
Costs.. there is a thing called the learning curve. If the last 40 years has told you nothing the learning curve shows making more reduces the costs significantly. Bill Gates made that point this week as Bezos showed it perfectly.
I'll
Coal is where it’s at Shame cars can’t run on coal. Beautiful stuffs demonised. Comeback on the way I reckon
Great article Taskmaster.
Verticas: 22.07.2020 Sell ITM ( 269p ) and buy Boohoo ( 245p ish ). ITM overpriced , rubbish concept , blah blah , stick with natural gas , let me give you a chemistry lesson..... better watching “Breaking Bad”.
Diffusion flame.
https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/features/hydrogen-the-burning-question/
Best of luck Verticas if that's what you rate as research.
Look - any share that grows as much as ITM is a bubble share. It has value but is not a green business - burning hydrogen releases very high levels of Nox which will exceed acceptable limits. In addition many of the concepts for hydrolysis are simply uneconomic- below is an engineers review of offshore green hydrogen via hydrolysis. But please make up your own mind.
‘Offshore H2 is just the latest silly idea in a field full of them. Offshore wind? Sure, that's where the wind is. Offshore oil & gas - same story. But as the OP notes, doing ANYTHING offshore that you don't NEED to do is a terrible idea. Onshore hydrogen is a deeply flawed concept. Moving it offshore just makes a bad idea laughable.
The idea of using "excess" electricity is also ill-conceived. Desalination and electrolysis equipment is expensive. If we can only run it when there is excess electricity, much of the time it will sit idle. This is not a wise use of capital equipment.
Unless the offshore wind turbines are fully devoted to hydrogen production, there will also be need for parallel electric transmission cables alongside H2 pipelines, totally unnecessary compared to simply bringing ALL of the electric power onshore.
Is there a competent engineer involved ANYWHERE in the "Hydrogen Economy" insanity?’
There is undoubtedly bubble activity going on across the sector. You can see it plainly on some of the forums where some 'investors' only measurement/research is that their company is 'cheap' compared to ITM or Ceres and therefore will 'obviously' catch up soon. Doesn't seem to matter that the companies in question don't have a product, no production, no customers. Nope. Just they're cheaper than ITM, they've got something to do with hydrogen, or EVs, or both, so they're bound to go up big soon. Sooner or later one or more of those is going to tumble first and likely ripple across the whole sector. Chances are the more established names, ITM, Ceres, Nel, Plug, will get dragged down too. Fortunately those four at least are easier to value, and although ITM may appear over-valued to some, I have detailed how it can be justified at 650 if we see appropriate order flow. As long as we see some order flow, then if we do get dragged down on bubble sentiment I think ITM would be one of the early recoveries from it.
Why does someone take the trouble to come on here and write a long post on why they are no longer invested here.... hmmmmmmm!
Just like Tesla, sure in a bubble! If the market can see an opporunity to for a share to be monitised in the future, its no bubble. Previous examples would be also Amazon, etc
What is this share currently worth in your opinion then
Full disclosure, I sold the little I had in ITM and NEL shares a while ago, for a good profit. The reason I sold is the feeling that the valuation of these was totally unrealistic. While I still very much think there will be a move towards green hydrogen as part of the energy transition, there is a lot of hype, none of which can warrant the current market cap of nearly 3.5 billion GBP for ITM.
A lot of enlightening comments on the future of hydrogen without the hype in this podcast : https://open.spotify.com/episode/1HAoPpBNlFPGYBbhVFe7CI?si=lFRnY5kFQ2i_YJKQjsOtSg
If the link doesn’t work, search for ‘podcast redefining energy, hydrogen:it’s complicated’
I’m out (been out a while)
GLA.