Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Is this really relevant ? ITM have chosen to refocus their product lines and no longer do refueling stations.
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/electrolysers/unacceptable-performance-itm-unveils-new-strategy-with-staff-cuts-exit-from-hydrogen-refuelling-and-biggest-ever-electrolyser-order/2-1-1395972
I think the problem is overhyped and lack of execution. Then doubts are raised about whether or not they can deliver, which means sales dry up.
For an enlightening and sometimes brutally honest view of what’s happening on the other side, you might do worse than listening to NEL’s presentation here: https://nelhydrogen.com/quarterly-presentation/
Looks like it was only installed in November last year!
Not great news for ITM, I’d say:
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/exclusive-shell-has-quietly-closed-down-all-its-hydrogen-filling-stations-in-the-uk/2-1-1335049
Good luck with that one! They had a 43MW order backlog a year ago if I got it right. Yet Revenue of £5.5m suggests they might have delivered 1/4 of that. From this I conclude that their ordered backlog of 75MW is increasing due to lack of delivery while actual sales are flat.
I’d be happy to be proven wrong. But until then I’ll watch it fall further. GLA
I’d say ‘not enough deliveries’
12 months revenue of £5.5m when they had a 43 MW order backlog a year ago. This suggests to me they have only delivered what … 1/4 of the ordered backlog? So the current 75MW backlog is growing not because of increased sales … but because they can’t keep up with the delivery.
No wonder big 100MW orders will be going to those who can deliver.
Ouch! I’m glad I sold a while ago. I expect it still has further to fall! GLA
This big one is another one that didn’t go to NEL, but to a US OEM despite the project being in Europe: https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/first-ever-gigawatt-scale-electrolyser-order-confirmed-for-offshore-wind-powered-green-hydrogen-project/2-1-1220683
And I suspect the reason is again the need for flexibility to match wind turbines variable output, hence the choice of PEM technology.
NEL need to accelerate their deployment for an automated PEM electrolyser production line if they want to grab that part of the market. Until they have that I’m not sure how the large deals will come through…
Though, of course, I might be all wrong. DYOR.
Not quite true… The Yara 24MW PEM electrolyser at Heroya, under the nose of NEL, on NEL’s home turf, is a contract between Linde and Yara, as far as I remember…
But, I agree that more should be done faster to stop producing H2 via SMR. Just not sure why we are not seeing more purchase orders being signed faster? Price? Limited production capacity?
After all the price of natural gas has gone up so much that you’d think there would be more of an incentive to order these electrolysers.
I see lots of info about the pipeline increasing with high growth rates, but I don’t see the growth rate on deliveries keeping up.
Supply chain constraints?
I guess they’ll need the cash to invest in automated production lines for PEM instead of alkaline electrolysers.
After listening to the presentation they gave in the middle of Feb, I’ve got the feeling they will pivot towards more PEM rather than build a second production line for alkaline in Heroya.
Loosing to ITM in their backyard when YARA bought a PEM electrolysers recently was quite telling I think.
Then you’ve got the big boys getting in the game, also with PEM https://www.h2-view.com/story/siemens-energy-to-begin-industrial-scale-electrolyser-manufacturing-in-berlin-germany/
NEL will need to pull in these 200MW + deals pretty quickly if they don’t want to be overtaken…
For now, having also seen some pretty big director sales recently, I’m out.
GLA
2 GW of 1MW electrolysers is still only 2000 a year. Not 144 / day… still don’t get it.
What is the source for the claim of 144 electrolyser per day?
I thought the new line in the factory was for 500MW per year.
Not sure how large the electrolysers are on average, but if 1MW then that’s 500 electrolysers a year.
What am I missing?
Yet someone is clearly filling his boot… judging by the rise. I tried to get an offer, to check what price it’s going for, and could not get an offer!
With Thyssenkrupp electrolisers.
See https://www.ammoniaenergy.org/articles/saudi-arabia-to-export-renewable-energy-using-green-ammonia/
In light of the ongoing developments, I thought I’d answer some of the questions that some posters asked.
Why did I bother write about my doubts on the value of this (and other hydrogen related) shares, when I no longer hold any? Because I’m genuinely interested and concerned that we might end up investing a lot of efforts for the energy transition in an area which will end up slowing down the transition. I think that as a society we would get a better return (in terms of avoided CO2) by pushing for more electrification. Someone who made this very clear, based on physics/thermodynamics and eventually efficiency of investment, is Paul Martin. Look for his posts on LinkedIn.
Having said this, I’m still very much in favour of green hydrogen to be used in industrial processes (fertilizer, steel, industrial processes). But not for burning or transport.
This share is still on my watch list. I might get back in when it drops to 150. That’s what I see as a realistic price based on the mid term market once the projects are starting to come in. But based on technology readiness and current prices, I expect delays and teething problems. There sure will be plenty of projects started based on how keen the EU is to make an impact. But for this to pick up in commercial terms, I see a time horizon of 10+ years. Which will give it plenty of time to drop to levels I might be more comfortable buying.
GLA
Not just Cebon with that opinion.
See this for an excellent summary : https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/distilled-thoughts-hydrogen-paul-martin
In short: green hydrogen for the process industry (fertilizers, chemical, steel making, etc...). Yes please by all means (I.e. replace the grey stuff).
But for heating and transportation? Way too inefficient/costly. Just ‘hopium’ sold by the oil and gas who are lobbying strongly in its favour because they see hydrogen a way for them to remain relevant (by producing blue hydrogen from methane using SMR, since the green stuff will take too long to make a meaningful impact ).
Full disclosure, I sold the little I had in ITM and NEL shares a while ago, for a good profit. The reason I sold is the feeling that the valuation of these was totally unrealistic. While I still very much think there will be a move towards green hydrogen as part of the energy transition, there is a lot of hype, none of which can warrant the current market cap of nearly 3.5 billion GBP for ITM.
A lot of enlightening comments on the future of hydrogen without the hype in this podcast : https://open.spotify.com/episode/1HAoPpBNlFPGYBbhVFe7CI?si=lFRnY5kFQ2i_YJKQjsOtSg
If the link doesn’t work, search for ‘podcast redefining energy, hydrogen:it’s complicated’
I’m out (been out a while)
GLA.
Bilbo according to https://www.thyssenkrupp-uhde-chlorine-engineers.com/en/products/water-electrolysis-hydrogen-production
TK have their own technology. Tk website suggests they have a highly automated supply chain able to deliver 600MW per year. Not sure why they would need ITM as a contractor.
Been into ITM and NEL for a while as I see them as the future but came across this:
https://renews.biz/61569/saudi-arabia-to-host-5bn-green-hydrogen-plant/
And was surprised to see Thyssenkrupp listed as the provider of the electrolyser technology. Hadn’t heard of them on this context before. Strikes me that having the backing of a major industrial company might be just what is required when developing these large projects. Can the likes of ITM and NEL compete with such large empires? Views anyone?
Been into ITM and NEL as I see them as the future but came across this:
https://renews.biz/61569/saudi-arabia-to-host-5bn-green-hydrogen-plant/
And was surprised to see Thyssenkrupp listed as the provider of the electrolyser technology. Hadn’t heard of them on this context before. Strikes me that having the backing of a major industrial company might be just what is required when developing these large projects. Can the likes of ITM and NEL compete with such large empires? Views anyone?
Glad I held back before buying any more... Sticking to my earlier decision of waiting for the funding to be sorted out was the right one. While I lost even more on current holdings, at least there is now hope that the company won’t go to the wall and I won’t loose the lot.