Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I’m hoping 70’s this week too but, surge in Covid across Europe and negativity around that might slow us a bit potentially. I feel 70-75p is more than possible with Thursdays announcement though.
Surprised this is not in the 70’s already.
Strong feeling we should see 70’s this week...
I think the share is going to have a good week. The latest updates have indicated a more positive stance, control around Covid and a world where we manage these new risks around what we do.
I think we Will read positive updates that demonstrate worth investing certainly for the medium term
SP pick-up may suggest further news before next Thursday 29th.
My understanding is that the early deadline by when holders of existing GBP, SEK and EUR notes must give their voting instruction or exchange instruction by Wednesday 28th. The final deadline is the 3rd Nov. Otherwise they must attend the GBP, SEK and EUR meeting on the 5th and vote in person. It would suggest that if all votes and exchanges instructions are received before the 5th then this meeting on the 5th may be unnecessary given the present circumstances.
It wouldn’t surprise me if get rns for debt restructure earlier. All depends on the uptake and interest level.
ii loading up before is a massive confidence within the company equity value...easy buy and hold.
...should be quite interesting with a Trading Statement due next Thursday on the 29th and then the results of the debt refinance approval on Wednesday 5th Nov. Would be surprised we don't get to 70p beforehand.
massive show of confidence.
If thats not a buy signal that i am not sure what is....BUY!
Slightly down but not much, really happy in this share, update next week, Artemis buying in so positive moves.
I have been a bit surprised by the lack of sp momentum in the last couple of days and can only imagine that the sp is being held back for other IIs to load up on.
Straight upto 5.11% - funds and IIs posturing.
Refinancing the notes means no share dilution. Current trading will be weaker due to lock down. But this is not NFS, AMGO. Dividend may be reintroduced next year, once full year results are known, and how much free cash is being generated? Personally I'd like the company to buy back some notes, to reduce interest payments and then room to pay dividends.
May take some time to return to pre covid, but this is a well run company IMO and should get there. News of full take up of notes in November should propel SP northwards. Not that anyone needs reminding but immediate pre covid was 3x current price and it's been 4x that before
Been a long road for a lot of ipf holders but the board have gotten refinancing done at an acceptable rate given the times. No reason why can’t re-trace to at least 70-75p by end of next week. The dividend reinstatement I feel could be a longer process but great to have the bond issue behind us and hopefully over the worst of this. Hat tip to Gerard Ryan apart from the negative response to going concern statement he’s handled Covid well imho.
GLA
Great day so far. This should have a lot of legs for the rest of the week. The sp got to 74p on the hope of a refinance. With the offer now out and on these terms it looks like a done deal. We should easily get to past highs in the next week I imagine. My main hope is that the divi gets re-instated as that will bring in institutions and will then return the sp to the 100p mark.
That's exactly my take too.
*big
a possibility once debt formally gets refinanced ?
a bit uncertainty would be removed till 2025....
Following on from the update, it appears IPF are on a solid footing and certainly have got their house in order.
The bond issue was a formality imho, the terms of the note seem fine in the current environment with the coupon extended by 5 years.
Business appears to have returned back to normal with a circa 95% collection rate. Headroom looks healthy with a good cash balance to boot.
I do believe dividends are likely the reinstated also which will then attract further funds into the mix.
Share price whilst risen has only made a small appreciation based on the news to date, I fully expect this to move steadily north from the lows.
Those in from these levels should see an excellent return in the coming weeks and months AIMHO
Hopefully sp should start to rerate now since now the bond issue is almost sorted.
Key thing is the removal of uncertainty that this refinance brings. The Group reported pre and post profitability in Q3 and an annualised impairment of 48%. The sp however has fallen 2/3rds though since pre-Covid levels despite the bond price recovering to 90%. Next news hopefully should be the reinstatement of the divi to sweeten the pill.
I guess this is why they’re trying to minimise the financing required now - going forward with possibly only 80% of notes (the rest in cash now if refinancing not taken up). I expect the interest rate is high to compensate for the likely drop in the market price after issue.
But there is a cool logic to this strategy. There is no financing for business growth at the moment (this refinancing probably won’t even get them back to pre COVID levels). I’m thinking a year from now when markets are calmer and IPF is perceived as a more stable company (moody’s etc) then there will be additional financing for growth at far better rates.
Exactly. The main news story here is that the bond will get refinanced on the generous terms given and the 5th November should just now be a formality. The business is profitable and can take the higher rate of interest.
Atleast bond issue is out of the way which was a big uncertainty.
9%+ interest Is current going due to covid risk with a lot of other companies had similar rate I.e genel energy etc.
My initial reaction was a little surprise at the rate however they probably had little negotiating position in today's environment. Even if they refinance the full 80% which is unlikely, 80% of 412m euros * (.975-.575) is incremental interest of 13.1m euros per annum or 12m gbp. That is only if the full 89% is taken up which is unlikely. We have saved far more than that in cost savings ytd. On the positive the refinance looks like it's getting sorted allowing them to progress with certainty and increasing credit again
Well I’m sure the issue of the new notes will be taken up at that interest rate, which is good for the share price.
But In this low interest rate environment we’re in, just shows how our business is viewed, which is bad for the share price.