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Informa: Panmure Gordon keeps buy rating and 525p target; Investec maintains hold rating and 410p target.
One positive impact of the tough market environment is that price expectations for assets, even high quality digital subscription businesses, have eased. We are well placed, both strategically and financially, to capitalise on this trend through selective bolt-on acquisitions. While these are likely to continue to be relatively small-scale, the pipeline is healthy, as illustrated by the recent successful acquisitions of Primal Pictures and Zephyr Associates. Events and Training: The Summer period is typically quiet for our Events businesses with few large events scheduled, while delegate sales across smaller conferences are also muted by the holiday period. We have seen no change in this type of seasonality and this year there has also been a particularly high number of events that have moved between quarters, distorting organic growth figures. This includes the Broadband World Forum, Cityscape Global/Saudi Arabia, TOC Middle East and a number of Agra Events. Offsetting some of this effect, we successfully ran our Brazilian biennial show Formobile in July, although the scale of this single show does not fully compensate other movements. Organic growth across the Events & Training division was -2.6% after nine months. If we adjust for biennials and the other timing differences outlined above, the nine month like-for-like growth rate would have been broadly similar to the H1 organic run rate. With the benefit of a number of key events moving into Q4, we are anticipating positive organic growth across the division through the final quarter of the year. Within the Events business, small conferences remain tough, particularly in Europe, and we continue to actively manage down volume in areas where demand is limited. By contrast, large events continue to grow healthily, at similar rates to peers and with strong rebookings for 2013. This provides us with confidence that our strategy to cut back on small conferences and redirect our efforts into large-scale events is the right one and we remain very active on this front, both via geo-cloning activity and acquisitions. Corporate training remains weak, reflecting a broad lack of corporate confidence, particularly in the US, where the Presidential election is further discouraging companies from committing to new projects in the short-term. Earlier this year we successfully disposed of Robbins Gioia, our government training business, reducing our exposure in this area. The recent strengthening of Sterling against the US Dollar and the Euro is unhelpful to Informa's reported financials reflecting the high proportion of its earnings that are generated overseas: approximately 46% of group sales are in US Dollars or other currencies that are closely aligned with the US Dollar. A one cent movement on the average full year £:$ exchange rate impacts group adjusted operating profit by circa £1.4m and EPS by 0.20p. Our exposure to the Euro is lower.
The visibility and resilience of Informa's cashflow remains very strong and we view this as a key attraction of the business. We are on track to report another year of 100% cash conversion which should leave our leverage ratio well within our target range of 2.0 to 2.5x net debt to EBITDA, even after recent bolt-on activity. Academic Information: We continued to trade broadly as expected through the Summer months with revenue growth for the division after nine months at +5.5%. Like-for-like revenue growth over the same period was +2.2%, the easing in growth rate since H1 as anticipated, reflecting the tough comparable for the division through H2 after its success in securing a number of significant 'one-off' content access deals in 2011. Looking forward, the Academic subscription season is just underway. While budgets in developed markets remain relatively tight, this is not the case in other geographies where demand for our content continues to grow strongly, underpinning the overall resilience of this business. Our investments in product development and our new online platform, which has been warmly welcomed by our customer base, also continue to reap benefits. As a result, we anticipate Q4 organic growth close to the nine month run-rate, and full-year margins to be broadly similar to 2011. Professional and Commercial Information: The revenue performance at PCI continues to be impacted by a number of factors, including deliberate management action to exit lower quality revenue streams, but also a tough market backdrop. Renewal cycles for some products, notably in the Pharmaceutical sector, remain longer than they have been historically and new sales difficult to secure. Nine-month organic revenue growth across PCI was -4.7%. As previously indicated, about two-thirds of this decline reflects pro-active pruning of lower quality revenue streams such as advertising products, one-off reports and consulting. This action has taken a little longer than expected to implement but is now largely complete, leaving a much higher quality, robust portfolio as we head into the 2013 financial year. Against this backdrop, management continues to manage costs tightly, ensuring any bottom line impact is limited. Consequently, we continue to expect healthy profit growth across PCI in 2012. Q4 trends should also be helped by the early impact of new product launches, notably within Informa Healthcare. We are particularly excited by the development of our Chinese medical product, which will offer exclusive access to valuable local medical records data.
Peter Rigby, Chief Executive said: "We continue to actively manage our portfolio to improve the underlying quality of group earnings, with recent bolt-on acquisitions such as Zephyr bolstering our digital subscription base further and MMPI in Canada expanding our portfolio of large-scale B2B exhibitions. Equally, we have a history of disposing of assets or exiting lower quality revenue streams where the structural growth profile is weak and this remains a key focus, with management continually re-assessing the potential future returns from our asset base. The quality of our content and brands puts us in a strong position even in what remains a lacklustre macro environment, whilst our bias to subscription revenues affords Informa great visibility and cashflow strength. In combination with an experienced management team, resolutely focused on cost efficiency, this is enabling us to deliver healthy profit growth despite the tough backdrop and we remain confident of meeting our expectations for the full year."
Interim Management Statement Informa plc ("Informa" or the "Group") is releasing an interim management statement providing an update on the performance and financial position of the Group since the half year ended 30 June 2012 based on the results for the nine months ended 30 September 2012 with comments reflecting trading up until the date of this release. Highlights Full year expectations remain unchanged Quality of group earnings continues to improve through pro-active portfolio optimisation Highly attractive cash dynamics - on track for 100% full year cash conversion Group nine month organic revenue growth of -2% Academic Information trading in line, resilient business model Profit growth on track at PCI, despite ongoing market weakness and product rationalisation Large events growing strongly, smaller conferences and corporate training still muted
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20121016071600T8638
And what about the bid as reported in the press....red hot whispers of 5.50 bid....
Informa: Investec keeps hold rating and 410p target.
Peter Rigby, Chief Executive of Informa said: "The acquisition of Zephyr is perfectly aligned with Informa's strategy to focus on high quality, digital subscription revenues attracting strong renewal rates and attractive cash dynamics. It is a great fit with our existing business in this area and will enhance our leading market position, ensuring a healthy return on investment."
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20121009070000T8628
In order to enhance its presence in the digital market, Informa (INF) has agreed to buy Zephyr Associates for a cash consideration of 62 million dollars (38.7 million pounds) in cash. The publishing and exhibition company noted that the target serves over 800 customers in the investment management sector and expects the acquisition to be earnings enhancing from 2013. The shares crept down by 2.8p to 401.9p.
Canaccord Genuity maintained its "buy" recommendation for Informa Group (INF), with a lowered target price of 445p, from 480p. The publishing and exhibition company performed broadly in-line with the broker's forecasts in the first half of the financial year, with improved margins compensating for a fall in underlying revenues. Canaccord noted that the conference business struggled, leading the firm to sell its US Robbins Gioia business, together with some low margin European conferences. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on a prospective earnings multiple of 8.7 times and offer a dividend yield of 5.1%.
Informa, which provides academic and business data, as well as information on bond prices to the financial services sector, reported operating profits for the second quarter around £160m yesterday and the shares now sit at nine times earnings. With financial services firms slashing budgets Tempus can only recommend a hold.
Informa Buy 31-May-12 £51,945.00 John Davis 15,000 @ 346.30p
INFORMA UNDERVALUED DESPITE MIXED UPDATE Consensus forecasts are likely to be trimmed following Informa's first quarter update but the shares still look undervalued. INFORMA - QUESTOR SAYS, "BUY." The events and professional information company has a mixture of defensive operations and business that is geared to an upturn. That's why it was named as a tip of 2012. The shares have outperformed the wider market but have moved off highs on resurgent eurozone debt fears. Informa operates in three divisions – academic, commercial information and conference management. The defensive parts of its operations are its subscription publishing operations which service businesses and academia. The events business, which organises about 9,000 conferences a year, is the one with the most cyclical upside. The market was spooked by weakness in its professional and commercial information unit. Two of the larger sectors – pharmaceuticals and financial services – saw "longer renewal cycles and reduced subscriptions", causing organic revenue to fall 4.1pc, but the group still sees organic growth in the full year. Academic publishing saw a 2.5pc increase in like-for-like revenues and the events business saw organic growth of 3.6pc. The shares trade on a December 2012 earnings multiple of 8.9, falling to 8.2 next year. This is substantially below its historical rating and the shares should be supported by their 5pc yield. They are up 3pc this year compared with a FTSE 100 down 4pc. Buy. P.S. Here's a couple of links about SCLP, one of the hottest stocks at the moment: http://www.euroinvestor.com/community/discussionthread.aspx?threadid=252803 http://www.euroinvestor.com/community/discussionthread.aspx?threadid=253089
Questor in the Telegraph goes back in to bat for one of his tips of the year, publishing and events company Informa. Currently trading at just 8.9 times 2012 earnings and yielding five per cent the maths look good. The firm runs 9,000 conferences annually, from which it ought to be able to milk strong earnings, if the Eurozone crisis doesn’t wipe us all out completely. Questor says buy.
Singer Capital reiterated its "buy" stance on Informa (INF), increasing its price target by 14p to 536p as the specialist publications company increased its full year dividend by 20% to 11.8p. An adjusted pre-tax profit increase of 7% to 296 million pounds was anticipated in the 12 months ended December, however such a significant dividend increase came as a surprise to the broker, who commented that it inspired confidence that shareholders will receive high cash returns if further acquisitions are not made. The business has reportedly had a good start to the year and Singer expects all of the group's divisions to generate positive organic bottom-line growth in 2012.
The Times’s Tempus column is keen to inform readers about exhibitions and publishing firm Informa. It announced a 20% boost to its dividend yesterday, with the suspicion this was done as a defensive move to protect the share price. The exhibitions sector in general has shown resilience through 2011 says Tempus and Informa is no exception, with like-for-like revenues up 3.9% and pre-tax profits gaining 7%. Trading at 11 times earnings the guidance is to hold. The stock, thinks Tempus, is where it ought to be.
Informa (INF) kept its "outperform" rating from Credit Suisse, with a reduced target price of 480p, from 500p. The company is one of the broker's preferred mid-cap publishers, and the lowered price reflects a tougher economic climate than previously expected, with 2011 and 2012 earnings reduced by 3% to 37.53p and 40.72p respectively. However, Credit Suisse expects the the events and training division to benefit from an eventual economic recovery. Informa shares grew 4.3p to 365.6p.
Peter Rigby, Chief Executive said: "We have seen the Group make further positive developments this year with value creating strategic acquisitions in both high growth emerging markets and key industry verticals. At the same time, we have enhanced the business further with an increase in the number of highly resilient events as well as further growing subscription revenues. Although the economic environment is uncertain, we have not seen any impact on current trading. Our experienced management team is well prepared should any change occur and the Group's resilient and cash generative businesses are better equipped than ever to combat tougher trading conditions. The Group is generating organic growth across all three divisions, recent acquisitions are performing well and we remain on track to meet our expectations for the full year."
nterim Management Statement Continued Progress - Confirms Full Year Expectations Informa plc releases its latest interim management statement updating trading since 30 June 2011 based on the results for the nine months ended 30 September 2011 with comments reflecting trading up until the date of this release. Highlights • Organic revenue growth of 4.2% (ex IPEX) • Recent acquisitions performing well • Subscription publishing remains resilient • Positive momentum in forward bookings • Strong operating cash flow • On track to deliver our full year expectations
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20111026070000T8456
Informa (INF) kept its "buy" rating from Singer Capital, with a 522p target price. The publishing and events company reported that academic book sales performed in-line with expectations in its third quarter, and the broker states that this removes the greatest risk aspect of the group's forecasts. Singer anticipates a solid performance from Informa's other activities and expects the chief executive's announcement that he is open to a sale of the company to keep investors interested. The shares jumped 8.7p to 353.7p.
Informa: UBS keeps buy rating, target upped from 460p to 520p.
Nomura upgrades Informa from neutral to buy, target price raised from 482p to 515p.