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Why do I get the felling of “Deja Vu”..
This problem was always waiting in the wings but
the DOJ problem always stole the headlines …
But still some positives to take away from the numbers..
I wonder why growth slowed in Europe
I guess other positive is buyback eats more shares after this drop.
Positives -
double digit growth, profit with exceptions removed.
Appears that perseris will start to make a significant contribution over the next few years $200-300 million NR.
They already appear to have 2023 forecasts in this year's and all looks reasonable - on track.
Nasdaq listing still planned this year.
$900 million reserves
Negatives
Litigation - And it looks like they're trying to mediate rather than fight based on very recent (end Jan discussions).
Slowing of growth in Europe
Suboxone slowing - but we knew this would happen
A mixed bag and the market has reacted predictably negatively on the news.
Tanking. All the share price appreciation of the last 3 months or so wiped out
Man, why did I get the feeling it was a bad idea to chase this name….stock ran so much into earnings. I’ve never seen that work out well.
Indivior swung to a pretax loss of USD95 million in 2022 from a profit of USD190 million the previous year, despite a jump in revenue to USD901 million from USD791 million. The pharmaceutical firm explained that it booked a USD290 million exceptional provision in the year as it navigates initial mediation sessions in late January regarding legacy civil multi-district antitrust litigation. "Because these matters are in various stages, Indivior cannot predict with any certainty how these matters will ultimately be resolved, or the costs, or timing of such resolution. In particular, any final aggregate costs of these matters, whether resolved by settlement or trial, may be materially different from this provision," the company said.
and we will see what the market thinks
Commentary on VIC last November on this:
"
There’s a lot more back and forth in the document on whether what INDV did actually caused harm to the market, and we are by no means antitrust legal experts. However, there are couple of fact here that make us feel comfortable:
- The recent quarterly filing mentions they were offered a $290m settlement which they did not take. This leads us to believe they think they have a case where they will likely settle for much less or not incur any penalties. $290m therefore seems like the ceiling for a potential fine and that wouldn’t be completely devastating to the company. $290m is 11% of the market cap and given the fact that the stock dropped ~11% from August 23rd (the day that the summary judgement was denied) to September 1st likely indicates that a fine is now priced into the stock
- In a recent status conference for the case, the judge asked how much INDV already paid out for the DOJ settlement. The judge was apparently very impressed with how much INDV has already paid out, a great sign for the case and the amount they are likely to pay out for this. Keep in mind INDV/Reckitt have already paid out $2bn+ for a related claims
- The denial of summary judgement simply said that this case needs to go to trial to be decided and that it “in no way signals that Plantiffs will ultimately be successful on the merits of their claim”. INDV seems to have at least a decent case here on our reading. There don’t seem to be any large product hopping awards as a precedent, so this also makes us feel comfortable on the outcome
"
The last paragraph on Litigation on the CEO comments doesn't look very good.
Not sure what to make of it. Sublocade is certainly growing fast, but not fast enough to move overall revenue growth yet...and more powerfully offset Suboxone revenue loss?
Nice rise again today! Can we break 2000 before results day?
Thursday 16 February
Indivior PLC Full Year Results
i am sure we will know more Thursday
Dunno, it will presumably be announced with the results next Thursday, not that long to wait.
Meanwhile, it looks as if the Opiant take-over has gone through on the nod, so Senator Warren might as well have saved her breath:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opiant-pharmaceuticals-announces-cfius-approval-210100542.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAN2btvxL2KvHoIFEqGSXVQPlEzbxKTxrlMYUe4FbgK6qDE4B0yo5eCQvnI1LJo797wTjOcKe7H03qA6Ar9ReUagUjoPkriQTHFK0ewJjMcpkY4DfL66EqaXoyITLNUWPRzXEYvzaLYsRi9M9ZSKfNX9PBzacbJc0Eyp_C9prmd-b
So they said Spring 2023 on the NASDAQ. That means sometime between now and....April?
"Indivior is a global pharmaceutical company working to help change patients' lives by developing medicines to treat substance use disorders (SUD) and serious mental illnesses. Our vision is that all patients around the world will have access to evidence-based treatment for the chronic conditions and co-occurring disorders of SUD. Indivior is dedicated to transforming SUD from a global human crisis to a recognized and treated chronic disease. Building on its global portfolio of OUD treatments, Indivior has a pipeline of product candidates designed to both expand on its heritage in this category and potentially address other chronic conditions and co-occurring disorders of SUD, including alcohol use disorder and cannabis use disorder."
INDV is not just about opioid addiction (although that is a whole mega-industry on its own). It is concerned with developing medicines to combat substance use disorders (SUDs) and serious mental illnesses. The important part in the above abridged "Mission Statement" is that "Indivior has a pipeline of product candidates designed to both expand on its heritage in this category and potentially address other chronic conditions and co-occurring disorders of SUD, including alcohol use disorder and cannabis use disorder." I like "pipeline of product candidates" which indicates a highly motivated, focused organization looking to grow & develop outwards from the success of SUBOXONE & SUBLOCADE.
Much more growth to come from INDV & next Thursday's results will not disappoint. I am expecting news of dividends to re-commence & possibly new product initiatives. It is to be hoped that INDV will be allowed to develop its business for a little while yet before it gets taken out by Big PHARMA for a price well North of £30-£40 per share which is only £6 to £8 per share pre-consolidation.
IMHO, DYOR etc
I share your optimism, @mythyaar. It would be disappointing if, after raising FY guidance in October and then Sublocade potential in November (before the capital markets day), the results were below expectations.
It's also encouraging that the shares in Aelis Farma, with whom Indivior have a partnership / agreement for cannabis addiction treatment (June 2021), are now trading near all time highs. Hopefully trial results will be good... All IMO.
GLA
C
You'd hope/ suspect that they will at least hit market expectations, if not surpass.
In readiness for the US listing later this year, and all the opportunities that holds.
I'm glad I've held, and added. Hope I'm right to be this optimistic!
Yes - it’s reported each day that a buyback takes place including the price paid etc.
New to UK stocks - is it required for all LSE listed companies to show when they buy back shares? I just found the RNS site for Indivior, and I didn't realize they report buyback activity on a daily basis.
That's always the way lol
Of course, right after I first build up my position, the stock falls lol
Any LTHs considering adding? I will at 1875p should it go that low.
Hi, the document you referenced actually says "• Adjusted operating profit expected to be modestly higher than FY 2021’s adjusted operating profit of $187m (previously “broadly similar” to FY 2021 adjusted operating profit of $187m)."
Can you tell me where you saw $205 million for 2021's operating profit?