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The main drain on the share price is Lanstead selling imo, any news is heavily sold into as per the last FDA rns as it creates liquidity for them to sell, and without news they look to be just drip feeding sells imo which sees a steady decline. The worry is that Lanstead drop the price to say 5p and then a placing is needed.. then shareholders are in serious trouble imo it’s not looking good
All don't forget Tim McC told us at the last placing that they had enough funding until the end of 2023. Mind you I only trust him as far as I could throw him and I'm no WWF wrestler. But you have to admit he spends our money quickly.
Pokerchips:
Thanks, PC, for the pat on the head and the advice to wait for Big Daddy to tell us that all will be well!
Not a surprise retail investors are impatient given all the failures and delays over the years, multiple placings, huge dilution and another placing needed imo before much longer, and with Lanstead selling the share price is only going one way imo 5p a real possibility over the next few weeks
Cauldstream7
I doubt there was any real intention to update until after ..say..8 weeks..Sep/Oct
They just know that they have all the impatient retail investors...so...they just try to keep them happy ....they see themselves as parents having to talk to impatient children
Pokerchips:
Thanks for your comments this afternoon. They have clarified some of the financial and investment issues that have been troubling me.
I would feel more assured if the confident tone adopted by Tim McC in his two recent Proactive interviews were supported by concrete evidence of progress in both the PK Lupuzor study and the research programmes being conducted by IMM's subsidiary in France.
In both of these interviews (17 August and 4 October) he says confidently that the market will be updated on the progress of the PK study but neither in these interviews nor in RNS notifications has there been any detail provided on progress. Eg: has recruitment of the 24 healthy male volunteers started? How many volunteers have been recruited? Over how long a period will they receive doses of Lupuzor? How much longer will it be to achieve completion of the PK study?
How will success be measured?
Tim McC said the study would take 8 weeks but to allow 12 weeks for "wriggle room". Unfortunately, none of us know when the study officially started so none has a clue as to when it will finish.
I'm afraid it stinks but it is unfortunately so typical of what we have had to endure since the failure of the first Lupuzor Phase 3 trial in May 2018.
Indeed Pokerchips,
We all get our wings clipped in this business at some stage.
Still all to play for here,may or may not be a placing.As I have said before the only way to look at these highrisk/high reward small caps is to look at the share price as a long dated call option premium price and forget about it.Only 3 things can happen,it expires worthless,one cashes in the winning coupon or one expires before either of the above.
Best of luck.
" the CLN deal has been a disaster"
these things are never ideal and are never going to "awesome" .....but...you don't get bank loans without regular cash flow income....so.. it isn't as if companies at this stage have a pack full of options to choose from
" I fully expect an Mcap of £150m-200m during the next phase 3 trial if we get the go ahead.Not many if any shares on aim offer this sort of potential reward from a £20m Mcap with a New management team, new US partner funding and designing the trial this could be something very special "
oh those sunny days in August lambo222 when you were so chirpy and full of optimism
I would think if they could get a placing away at around 6p that would be good business imo, the CLN deal has been a disaster and needs repaying in 6 weeks time, and Lanstead selling is just draining the share price week in week out so imo better to do a placing sooner rather than later at say 6p before Lanstead decimate the share price towards the 5p range, all imo
Cash and cash equivalents at start of H2 - £4,248,412
H2
R&D and Admin costs of say £2.2m
leaves £2.0m
They made a lot of purchases of equipment in H2 2020 and that expense was minimal in H1 - £52.5K... so..say £50k in H2
Tax Received - say another £350k
Trade Payables - say £200k expense against receivables
leaves - £2.1m
say..they pay off the £700k in cash... (dont know if they will agree to sell the CDN for a cash investment as new shares instead)
leaves £1.4m.... which would mean needing more cash into 2022 ..rather than by year end .....
Cash flow is being assisted by the time period of Trade Payables though .. which have increased in H1
I would be interested to know if they would get a cash injection from Avion to assist with the phase 3 trial ...maybe that will be agreed when Tims go to the US ?? ...anyone know how that would work ?
I am using ball park figures , rather than "exacts".... and happy to work with it to get more input
Pokerchips:
Thanks for your analysis of the current financial situation of IMM.
If you are correct, the cash outlay for Admin and R and D in H2 of 2021 will be £2-.0 - 2.2m while the cash in hand is £1.6m, leaving a cash shortfall of £0.4- 0.6 mill. at year end.
3 ways in which this can be covered: Cut costs; borrow; raise more equity. Or sell the company/declare bankruptcy.
A non-cash gain via eg an increase in the valuation of Incanthera shares will not suffice.
Is this correct?
Pokerchips:
Thanks for your analysis of the current financial situation of IMM.
If you are correct, the cash outlay for Admin and R and D in H2 of 2021 will be £2-.0 - 2.2m while the cash in hand is £1.6m, leaving a cash shortfall of £0.4- 0.6 mill. at year end.
3 ways in which this can be covered: Cut costs; borrow; raise more equity. Or sell the company/declare bankruptcy.
A non-cash gain via eg an increase in the valuation of Incanthera shares will not suffice.
Is this correct?
The company has no bank loans and no bonds etc ...so a £700k CLN liability isn't so bad ... you cant run R&Ð companies without loans, funding etc
The "expenses" in H1 consist mainly of
R&D - (£1.3M)
Admin - (£1.5M) (with £0.5m as a one off) )
Finance Expenses - (£0.9m) - non-cash adjustment including the drop in the Incanthera asset value
Share based expense (£0.288m)
The Finance costs are largely non-cash Accounting entries, rather than actual cash expenses ...and feed down into the "Retained Earnings" Account as an account adjustment ..which reduce the shareholder Equity level
You can tell they are a "non-cash adjustment" because they are written in the "comprehensive income" statement ..rather than as a cash expense ...the fall in the value of the Incanthera financial asset is shown there
The actual Net cash( after a tax gain payment) used in operating activities in H1 was (£1,679,963)
in H2 - the combined R&D and Admin costs may be a more averaged level of (£2.0m-£2.2m )..less if more of the so-called "savings" materialise
If Incanthera share price increases in H2 as a result of ..say...distribution agreement for SOL ..then there may then be a finance cost gain in H2 account for the finance value gain
Share price at historical lows, £700k repayment
Low cash flow