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not a joker .cos its keep falling
International Ferro Metals (IFL) BUY – Target price 20p (June year end) International Ferro Metals (IFL) BUY – Target price 20p (June year end) IFL report their FY Q3 production report for ferrochrome production at their facilities in South Africa. The company report production of 57,462t up 6% through the third quarter with sales just behind at 52,172t as the company raised inventory levels. IFL continue to reduce borrowings with net debt now down to ZAR338m ($31.6m) from ZAR347m ($32.5m). Management have restarted the Lesedi underground mine which produces lump chrome ore at site. Ferrochrome price negotiations for the CY Q3 quarter continue with no benchmark price settlement seen as yet. South African producers argue that European demand and costs are rising while we believe Japanese consumers are holding out against a price increase. A small price increase is expected if the two sides compromise. IFL report that Chinese demand for chrome ore has raised South African chrome ore prices by 20% for chrome ore concentrate. Fortunately IFL has the Lesedi mine at site and is able to offset some of the price increase for third party ore. The team have suffered a couple of setbacks through the quarter as the platinum strike restricted delivery of UG2 ore and the co-generation plant is struggling to work to plan. SP Angel Conclusion: IFM made good progress earlier this year with costs and production growth. The team continue to work on the cost base and are well placed to take advantage of our expected rise in ferrochrome demand and prices later this year. News from China is positive and we expect the Chinese authorities to make further progress in closing polluting ferrochrome smelters within China. * SP Angel acts as Joint Broker to IFM. The author recently visited IFL’s ferrochrome plant in South Africa.
Came across this while looking for something else. Not invested and sorry if already posted. http://www.*****************/international-ferro-metals-ifl-buy-target-price-20p-june-year-end/
And who are you joker mannnan .. some spiritual sooth sayer..making predictions
it will fall further
I agree... they need to sort out cogen plant urgently... i cannot help but question what the cost/benefit has been up till now.... at least they recognised what the problem is... it's so crucial they get it working to full capacity because of the competitive edge on other producers. I do give the company some credit the thus far... it's been a difficulty market to do business.. so long as they don't cut corners and take operational risks and just carry on doing what they are doing then market will hopefully eventually improve. though I think the share price could respond sooner.. it all depends on the short term price of FeCr. i.e. if the price of FeCr were to double tomorrow.. then sp would likely increase 10 fold.. though not much chance of that happening so soon..lol
you have to wonder if the co-gen plant will ever deliver in full, they are ticking over and how well they manage to do this until ferrochrome prices increase is more important than the sp for me. I think they messed up with smelters causing damage and rebuilds so as long as they avoid anything similar and keep costs down they should stay well positioned for market improvements. don't see much happening with sp this year
production up :-) but lower sales :-( cogent plant down :-( overall costs are up :-( short term borrowing to increase :-( global market is gradually improving :-) profit (if any) this year is looking marginal.. company still treading water... surely it can only get better from here??? they are trying hard to keep their cost down but too many factors outside of their control... its clear to me they desperately need a higher ferro-chrome price.. I suspect the market will respond in due course.
I'm feeling quietly confident that it will be a good update but I suspect it will take a few more good updates to restore confidence here and then this sp will really take off.. good medium term and long term hold.
RE: Latest production report, thanks for the info. Hopefully we will see an upsurge in the sp on that date?
Thursday, 24 July 2014 Production Report http://ifml.com/investor-centre.aspx
Any one aware of when this is due to be released?
we are waiting for the production report due some time this month.. the last one was quite good and showed the company had made a profit. We need consistent profits with no production hiccups if they are to clear the backlog of accumulated debt. China slowing is not good news but it is a global market and India and Europe and US are in better shape. Also plenty of disruptive forces going on in South Africa at the moment. Striking workers and Eskom the Electricity supplier which is struggling to meet electricity demand (IFL requires lots of electricity to produce). Its not all doom and gloom. Progress is being made on all fronts albeit slowly. A new power station is being developed and globel economy is picking up.
anyone know what is ultimeatly going to get the SP moving up to 10p/12p again. The results seem to be improving based on most recent announcements. Is China the key here? If a chinese competitor were to buy them as they seem to be doing in most of Africa at the moment to get their hands on resources this would certainly help but is China slowing down? any thoughts?
Sadly no reply as yet. We may never know the details of the signed agreement with Chrometco. Don't know if this deal was the reason to drag the price lower but it seems to be rallying these last few days, and against the market trend.
re: your email to IFL.. did you get a reply?
this is promising behaviour here... will it hold onto the price rise .. or sell off at end of day... either way it's nice to see this stock making an effort..
are you here
"Eskom has obtained an interdict barring its workers from going on strike, the electricity supplier said on Tuesday." http://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/court-prohibits-eskom-strike-1.1712768#.U7MmovldV8E
i sold over 52p .few years ago .but the trend is down wards continue .if goes under 5p .then i will be in again ,,don,t mind waiting
From last Aprils's production report:-- "Operations are expected to remain cash generative and net borrowings are expected to reduce steadily going forward" "The Company’s net borrowings decreased by ZAR25 million to ZAR347 million at 31 March 2014 from net borrowings of ZAR372 million at 31 December 2013, reflecting cash generation" http://ifml.com/~/media/Files/I/Ifml-V2/results-and-presentations/results/FY2014Q3-IMS.pdf Rducing the operational debt and accumulated losses should be the company's no. 1 priority. Lets hope the next production report due next month is just as good.
I failed to spot earlier that the big trade was of type UT so not from a single seller. I have search for news and but found nothing to explain the price fall other than negative media coverage regarding SA economy, ESKOM and China. Looking forward to the IFL full year results which should be with us soon.
massive sell order went through at 4.30pm... stake amounted to ~2% of the company... hmmm
I've fired off an email to IFL with some questions regarding the last RNS. Will post here if and when I get any answers.
you make a fair point. But by my reasoning, it is Chrometco that is in the business of extracting chrome ore and selling it. However the market for chrome ore is in a slump and Chrometco is struggling to sell the stuff. Chrometco require a ready committed customer ; enter IFM. So my guess is that Chrometco will do all the drilling to prove the stuff is there and IFM will mine a set quota of not more than 200,000 tons per 12 month period.. ongoing. The limit here is interesting because it suggests they are squeezing Chrometco to the bone... otherwise Chrometco would surely let IFM have as much as they want. I would be surprised if IFM were paying for the drilling but yes they may have put some money towards it. I think the rns implies quite strongly that the terms are favourable to IFM's benefit to acquire CHEAP ore and that is key. I suppose we could ask the company for more details.