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BigEgo - ‘Otherwise efficient market theory would tell you the market price should be exactly the offer price - if it was 100% in the bag that's the only logical price.’
Wrong.
Why would the market be at 100% of the offer price when it clearly states in the RNS that this very much ISN’T a concrete offer……and is yet to be put to shareholders?
It’s nothing to do with ‘risk’ it because at this moment in time it’s a proposal, nothing more.
Or to be more blunt - the fact that the current market price is below the revised takeover offer price reflects the risk the market perceives in it completing.
Otherwise efficient market theory would tell you the market price should be exactly the offer price - if it was 100% in the bag that's the only logical price.
It's not. It's still down around 322 - hence some risk is being priced in.
Sure 'tank' is the wrong word - but the elevated value from the 'pre bid price' usually disappears if a bid fails - so dropping back to where it was should be expected.
The price might linger a bit between old and new zones on the hope of another bid - but if nothing else comes, then...
Henky - ‘Thanks for the advice that moneyshark boy is definitely not playing with a full deck’
You’re right, I’m in a perpetual state of Royal flush. They’re the only cards I need.
I’m not the one asking a public forum what I should do with 3000 shares……
Natural selection….learn about it, at least that way you’ll understand where your life is heading. Lol.
Thanks yk everybody who replied
Thanks for the advice that moneyshark boy is definitely not playing with a full deck
Brock "Red, a lot of hurdles for MrK to jump before he gets his way"
Totally agree and my point was not that this is a "done deal" more should this go through etc.
I very much doubt it will go through in it's present form. Depends how badly DK wants IDS? We know he has deep pockets.
Personally I feel the Company should be owned by the great unwashed.
ONWARDS & UPWARDS!
Bigego
It could be argued that why would the SP tank if the bid failed
If a bid has been made at 370 than there must be clear evidence to the bidder that its worth it in the first place
Certainly it would slip but tank...absolutely not
Yes, we’ve all read it very differently to Broch….but that’s not difficult given he’s a broken man, a broken soul…..
His imbecilic marxist utopian dreams are being dismantled in front of his eyes so he’s desperately scrambling to any and every hope that could stem the free market capitalist tide…..
Unfortunately for him though her just making himself look like an even larger plum than he already was.
Henky - generally speaking never take advice from online forums :) but I see your message and although I'm not a poster in this forum im happy to share my opinion as if I were in your position.
You say you have 3000 shares so they are worth, what, about £9600 today at £3.20?
I am not fully over the details of the BID but I think it's worth about £3.60 max (if no more bids come)?
So that would be worth about £10,800, so another £1200.
The risk is if the bid falls apart this would tank back to 225 or below - so you seem to have an opportunity right now.
Personally then I would probably be happy with the £9600, and the key thing is what will you do with that money? If you need it for life stuff fine - but if you are able to reinvest it elsewhere then what opportunities are available?
It's your decision, but it seems you have already achieved a good return in my view.
Indeed Hold Henky
Henky "sell now or keep a hold of them"
Hold for sure!
Henky - ‘Could do with some advice here I have roughly 3000 shares in royal mail .What advice would people in here sell now or keep a hold of them.’
Certainly. If I was you I’d sell up very quickly and then put that cash very quickly into getting the care that you need so that you don’t become a burden on the British taxpayer. Good luck.
Could do with some advice here I have roughly 3000 shares in royal mail .What advice would people in here sell now or keep a hold of them.
Just look at the general theme from the media this morning.This will slide through.Both political parties will make a few words seeming like they are actually bothered.If it was a problem they should of blocked the increase to above 25%,where is the logic to say we will let you above 25 but not 100.
Broch I read it a bit differently. IMO it sounds like the BOD are saying to the current government you have had 4 years to address the USO issue and failed to do so thus part of the reason we are in this current financial situation. But dont worry we (the BOD) will get agreements from DK that the brand will be protected. employees will be okay etc etc.
Would now not be the time for the public backlash when 2 offers have been made and the business are like minded to accept. The apathy shown by the general public in this country around local elections and Mayoral appointments with very low turnouts suggests to me that if they cant be xxxxx around local services/councils then the subject of who ultimately who owns IDS is not going to be a major issue for most. Yes you will have the usual groups voicing concerns but will any party pick it up as a potential vote winner/loser in the upcoming GE I am not so sure.
PostmanPorsche - ‘Does it mean that the 2p is going to be mentioned in the forthcoming results or could it be a different amount?’
The dividend was 2p…..plus an 8p special dividend….and yes, it will be mentioned in the year end report.
Don’t have to be a genius to figure out that Royal Mail will be spun off from IDS once takeover goes through. Price… 50p -125p. Who the hell wants 150k employees!
The dividend part of the offer is interesting. Does it mean that the 2p is going to be mentioned in the forthcoming results or could it be a different amount?
Broch - ‘The pressure on the government and opposition will ramp up. The public backlash of selling off to an overseas private owner will be immense and the IDS board knows this and are using it as a weapon to fend off the bid!’
Your desperation is palpable. The government won’t be saving your blushes anytime soon. Just accept that your incessant whining was a million miles away from the mark and you look like an absolute melon.
Where is this public backlash you’re imagining? Maybe it’s just in your hovel? Where as in the rest of the country no one gives a f*ck.
Thanks Hounddog10, after reading your comment, it's not a done deal....
It's just sad the board have thrown in the towel at such a low price, as if they can't be asked...it's up to the major institutional shareholders to put up a fight now for all shareholders..
Assuming the offer is accepted for 370p. With the current price at 320 there is the possibility to make 15% on buying shares now.
If the offer were to be rejected are we back to the mid 2's?
Just vote no. Tell your postal mates to buy Ids shares and vote no.
Red, a lot of hurdles for MrK to jump before he gets his way.
Reading the boards statement yesterday it looks more like a challenge to the government than anything else. It's obvious that they want the approval to go to 5 day letter delivery so they can turn round to Mr K and reject his offer.
The pressure on the government and opposition will ramp up. The public backlash of selling off to an overseas private owner will be immense and the IDS board knows this and are using it as a weapon to fend off the bid!
Just vote no. Tell your postal mate to buy Ids shares and vote no.