Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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The minimum share price offer comes into play when a stock is in a situation like Evraz . Where you are forced out of your shares the minimum is the 12 month high.
In cases like Royal Mail they usually offer 30-40% above current market price , which is roughly what was offered. Doesn’t mean it’s enough, just opportunistic timing with a low current sp.
Opportunistic is the word used by Royal Mail in RNS and DLG
Its late in the day, so I thought I'd just do a quick sum to calculate how much it would cost Kretinsky if he were to pay £3.20 for each of the outstanding shares:
Total number of shares= 950,000,000. He owns 27.5% already, so he has to fund the purchase of the remaining 72.5%.
950,000,000 x .725 = 688,750,000 shares he doesn't currently own.
688,750,000 x £3.20 = £2,204,000,000.
He's got £2.2 billion down the back of his sofa.
Talk2Much - ‘I remember reading from you guys on this very forum that if DK hits 30% he has to put a bid at his lowest price paid in the last 12 months, which would be easy wouldn't it?’
Yes, DK and VESA were obliged to offer AT LEAST the lowest price paid in the last 12 month period……but the offer was much much higher than that and it was still outright rejected….and rightfully so.
The shareholders hold the power. ALL shareholders not just institutional. Any offer that the board think is worth putting to shareholders will be put forward by ballot with a recommendation of either accept or reject based on what they ‘think’ is acceptable.
A lot of OliGarch misinformation still swirling around here and given he’s pretending not to read my posts I’ll just clarify the situation for people…..
‘So, the largest shareholders have turned down the initial offer from VESA’
The largest shareholders haven’t turned down anything. The board have outright rejected the bid and they wouldn’t put anything to the shareholders both institutional and private investors until they think there is an offer they think is worth considering.
‘If that's the case then these institutions will have already made up their mind that they are happy with that figure and the deal will be rubber stamped or does it still have to go through the formality of balloting every shareholder?’
Oligarch doesn’t know his a*se from his elbow, clearly. Once the board have an offer they think will be worth putting to shareholders they will ballot ALL shareholders whether they want to accept or reject the offer.
Don’t let clueless idiots like OliGarch confuse or misinform you.
Evening JB, regarding the union, yesterday's message stated....
"The truth is Royal Mail needs a new ownership and governance model that builds a postal service for the workers and customers and not one built solely focused o shareholder payouts and driving down the service and the terms and conditions of the workers."
I guess that this could be read in more than one context however I took it to mean that they were saying "anything is better than the structure that we currently have?"
I notice that they have issued another statement today which clarifies their objection to a takeover bid but in all reality I'm not sure that any of the major political parties will see this as a priority, election year or not.
Darbo just meaning I will keep an eye on how things progress and just being sensible I hope. I don't think anyone can really say how this will all unfold.
JB- continue to review? Sounds ominous. But your voice was the one missing. Wolvesposty (if you are still listening) was imo correct when he said £6 was the peak...in fact the peak of RMG shareholders innocence before the carnage. Now the city (and the world) knows there is more to the full picture. More observations to come....
Not all institutions are guaranteed to vote in favour of the share price cash offer. So they would need a sizeable portion of private investors to back the deal alongside the institutions that do, plus there’s a minimum % of all share holders voting in favour. To avoid low ball offers being accepted
Oligarch I assumed your comment re CWU being supportive of the bid was sarcasm as they as have expected started trumpeting the renationalisation call to Labour and their vision for what the business model should be. I am no expert on the details of making a bid for a company but I thought it was the business who turned down the offer. I don't think any shareholders have had a say at this point although of course VESA could be influencing in the background. In my head I thought 75% acceptance was required. Hopefully someone can confirm or put me right. Bck to the football. GLA
Darbo the answer is sitting on my favourite chair watching the football. Very funny re holidays and we are actually away on Tuesday for a week. Need to get away from the rain and get some sun. I've just been reading the comments for the last couple of days and didnt feel the need to add to the mix.
Not surprised at the bid and DK is playing a very smart game IMO. It will play out and no doubt there will be lots of twists and turns. I am happy to stay invested but will continue to review.
So, the largest shareholders have turned down the initial offer from VESA. Presumably these are institutions holding in excess of 51% and they have made a decision so when they arrive at a figure that is acceptable this will be put to the 49%?
If that's the case then these institutions will have already made up their mind that they are happy with that figure and the deal will be rubber stamped or does it still have to go through the formality of balloting every shareholder?
I don't know...can't weigh it up....my sentiment is wavering.. because the big question is..where is jbthistle?we know he has more holidays than Alan whicker but this news can't have passed him by
When a bid was put in for DS Smith of 373p
The share price rose slowly toward that price after an initial jump to 320p
IDS has had an initial jump to 275p, and the initial bid is 320, with a further bid on its way presumably.
So I would think in the coming weeks the share price here will gain toward the 320p mark.
Czech guy is already a share holder, with long standing interest. Int paper weren’t holders or long standing potential bidders for DS Smith.
Same with AGEAS and DLG. They weren’t long standing or holders.
So I would think further bids from Czech boy are on their way and so the price rise is inevitable .
Even if he walks away after a 2nd bid, the SP will remain uplifted from 220p even if it drops back a bit from the bid rise.
Yet again this stock manages to defy all market rationale.
It's understandable that there would be a degree of profit taking but under these circumstances you would expect there to be a far higher level of buyers looking to take advantage of a potential buy out.
The fact that the share price hasn't at least gone up to the rejected offer price of what is widely reported as being 320p once again defies all logic and yet again I can only find one word to account for it... manipulation
A lot of old guard are been slowly pushed out
And new faces from larger cooperations been brought in
Even if the bud is unsuccessful I can still see the share been 3.50 plus in about 12 to 18 months
So no reason for management to sell out cheaply
Hounddog10 - Thanks for the more in depth information on the 8.3 and 8.5 forms.
I’ve seen these forms coming through on other companies I’ve been invested in when there’s a takeover going through. I haven’t really paid too much attention to them personally but you are correct that you can gauge institutional activity throughout the bidding process if it’s important to your investment decisions.
Sid786 - ‘Plus I think he would want to complete the deal before a possible labour government comes into power’
Yes, I agree.
There are a few market forces which have aligned for Kretinsky and he knows it’s now or never. A labour government in power could certainly put a block on the deal so now is the time.
He’s also jumping on the weakness of the share price which we’ll help him to drive a hard bargain but at the end of the day he’s going to have to cough up if he wants this company because I don’t think shareholders or the board will let it go on the cheap.
To add to TMS’s post. The 8.3s show opening disclosure positions, required as TMS pointed out, for any investor that holds more than 1%. Such investors have 10 business days from a bid (or here putative bid) to make the disclosure. If they deal they also have to keep the market updated by submitting a form 8.3 by 3.30pm the next day. If they go below 1% they no longer need to disclose. The forms are of interest because they (may) give some indication of the views of major shareholders, through their buying and selling, on the bid (if it comes) and are also of interest if new investors start to come in. If a bid is made and votes are required it also gives an indication of where voting power lies.
There are also form 8.5s which are for market makers who are part of firms involved in advising on the bid. The Panel will have deemed them sufficiently independent of their corporate finance arms (advising on the bid) so that they can continue to market make IDS stock but they have to disclose anything they do on a daily basis.
There will be a lot of these forms going forward.
Plus I think he would want to complete the deal before a possible labour government comes into power
TMS my point was that he's been in touch the past, so there he believes they won't be any major obstacles in the way
That's why he has launched this bid
Sid786 - Mr K doesn’t need to be in touch with the government dept or the business secretary at this point because he and his private equity firm have already been through the necessary formal process to bid for this company if they so wish.
The people clinging onto the hopes of government intervention are either desperate, delusional or both.
This is now between Kretinsky/VESA, the board and the shareholders. Either a deal will be struck or they’ll walk away but the government won’t do anything at this point.
Where are the hordes of MP’s taking to the streets after yesterday’s news? There weren’t any because it’s passed that.
Why do many sellers
Are they unaware a bit has been put in
Are they unaware that a that a larger bid is prepared
Mr K has been consistently been in touch with IDS and government dept / business secretary
He would have not launched this bid unless he felt there was a good chance of success
I would use the Liberum recommendation as toilet paper if I could. Lol.
They are pathological when it comes to IDS. Like the conspiraloon postal workers that come here.
The UK’s National Security and Investment Act ‘could’ bit won’t do f*ck all…..given Kretinsky’s holding has already been under the necessary scrutiny and came out the other side with a fat green light……hence why VESA have taken the time and made a bid. Lol.
Liberum, OliGarch, IsleworthSpy and Co May be desperate for the government to block this to save their face but unfortunately the facts don’t care about their feelings.
Consistently wrong in retrospect!