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I don’t know if it was commented on here yesterday but did you spot the first sentence in the “Return of Capital” section of the RNS? It stated:
“As part of its total return model, the Company remains committed to delivering a sustainable monthly dividend to complement its organic growth profile.”
Note the word “monthly”. Is this a copy and paste error from a previous RNS or a hint at the future, made possible by the new debt facility meaning the previous restrictions no longer apply?
Stas20,
CAD 2.21 /mcf CAD 3.18 /mcf - These are the numbers that WHI use in their forecasts for 2024 & 2025
For a bit of context, the actuals in April and YTD are CAD 1.47/mcf and CAD 2.23/mcf (AECO)
In my own spreadsheet which I Update monthly with actuals and a reforecast for the remainder of the year – I come up with CAD 2.37 for 2024
So, in short, as things sit right now – WHI’s numbers look reasonable Imo but could change significantly in either direction. May is typically the weakest month but I’m using the same number as for April and progressively strengthening month by month until I get to CAD 3.17/mcf in December (CAD 3.00/GJ).
Its anyone’s guess where gas will be in December – will Canada still be oversupplied with record storage and production or will demand increase with Oil sands and LNG Canada boosting prices significantly higher? My pricing assumptions are based on the later.
And wti touching 84$
I was expecting some m & a to accompany the capex. Undeniable that Majid is playing a long game. It's a healthy yield.
I3e is now a safe boring divi stock. A solid buy but nothing to get excited about especially with party pooper Majid at the helm.
@surprised interesting post thanks
Cheers, I'll have a look.
Concerns are showing up in the futures market re gas prices. The contracts for next winter are the most expensive on the curve.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1783539479178776630
"I think its interesting that there is only a couple of wells slated for Clearwater - these are nearly 100% Oil - a question for the upcoming meeting me thinks."
Clearwater is not proven out yet.
"Where else can you get a safe Divi of 8 to 9%"
well MnG, Lgen,Osb are good. MnG is cheap as chips. UKW is also reliable with around 7%.
Not plugging them, just answering. Hold lots of I3E and content to keep them all.
Short term collect the divi, which is very good. Where else can you get a safe Divi of 8 to 9%, also top up on the lows like today.
Okay, today has been a bit of a kick in the nuts, but we're still receiving a great a great dividend.
Medium term, I believe we are in safe hands and the out put will only grow, which in time will increase the share price, which will hopefully increase the Dividend.
Hold your shares tight and they will go up again.
GLA.
Well that was an interesting day, some bargains available. We just need to now pop back up after Majid has given his presentation and the current 9.35% dividend sinks in and what that might mean once the total return model is factored in, assuming we get some capital appreciation also.
" I3e being punished in the market by old news (lack of spend in 2023). "
Weird. It's like they are paying that money in the form of dividend to folks who got the shares for free.
Guided 2024 exit production of 20,250-21,250 boe/d reflects the back-end loaded nature of the company’s expected drilling effort – with annual production guidance for 2024 in the range of 18,000-19,000 boe/d. We see the company’s 2024 drilling efforts culminating in strong production growth into winter 2024/2025, just in time to capture the robust
natural gas prices expected for that period. Critically, the futures market for North American natural gas has found its floor and, based on the futures market, gas prices can be expected to increase significantly in the mid-term.
We are adjusting the basis of our fair value estimate to i) use our 2025 (vs. 2024) debt adjusted cashflow (“DACF”)
estimate as the denominator for our 5x EV/DACF valuation and ii) align our gas price forecasts to the futures market.
We also highlight that the value accretive disposition of non-core royalty interests for $US 24.8m announced on
17 April 2024 had built upward backpressure into our fair value estimate, which we flagged at the time. As a result of these changes, we are increasing our fair value estimate for i3 Energy to 21.2p from 16.2p
i3 Energy confirmed its commitment to pay its annual dividend of 1.0260 p/sh (via four quarterly dividends of 0.2565 p/sh). We highlight the generosity of the resulting 8.2% dividend yield based on the company’s closing price yesterday of 12.5p
Gas prices are expected to strengthen dramatically based on the futures market pricing. Oil prices are robust and likely to strengthen further in our opinion. We believe that i3 Energy has consolidated and is now maintaining its balance sheet in
preparation for scaled up growth in order to produce into a significantly higher natural price. Our updated fair value estimate of 21.2p reflects our positive appreciation of i3 Energy’s judicious strategy, combined with the inherent benefits of significantly rising natural gas prices in North America
Yes. It doesn’t look like much is on the horizon. Really disappointing.
You don't drill, you get punished, but enjoy your dividends.
50m capex is exactly as predicted. It is giving an 8% increase from today. I3e being punished in the market by old news (lack of spend in 2023). If company can sustain 8-10% growth each year then that is okay.
I would be very interested in what the Simonette well pad in 2025 looks like. How many horizontals are planned. That could be the accelerated growth.
Unfortunately 2024 performance will be driven by oil and gas prices rather than drilling. Fingers crossed for AECO.
Markets can be irrational at times, bb posters sold out early in day on mis reading rns, sp plunges, others follow selling their holding on an sp fall, broker reports follows later stating target price raised as business metrics look better going forward...guess it's what makes a market 😉
@stas hope so because Ive just topped up :)
Me too. Like the approach of the new CFO who seems to me to have steadily undone the mess left by the last one over the past year. Now on a more secure basis and seems to me to be taking a conservative approach, so more likely to surprise the market to the upside over the next year. Plus not many places where I can get this kind of dividend!
I think it is and have bought a small holding 50,000 @ .107732 worth holding for that divi.
Massively overdone! It’s retail herd following the masses.
Too many in this group play the audience with positive words while waiting for news to take a profit and then drive price down to buy back in. Seen it many times now.
Is this drop now overdone?
If you go to their November 2023 Presentation - they have a pie chart that gives the production break down for the different areas. For Central Alberta:
55% Gas
27% NGL's
18% Oil & Condensate
This is an average well an of course this varies across the acreage with some wells having a higher gas weighting and some a higher liquid weighting.
They describe Alberta acreage as Liquids Rich Gas with EMERGING OIL. So it seems in the last year or so they have found areas with much high Oil Weightings so even though they appear to be targetting Central Alberta - I would imagine their looking at Liquids Rich wells.