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Tonynorstrom,
Beware of false prophets, was one of the first statements my combative CEO boss told me back in the 1980s.
Nuttall, for all his great analysis and charts, which I have often used myself, is in danger of becoming a very stubborn uber-bull on oil and gas prices, irrespective of the changing global demand dynamic. He seems to believe that whatever decline is in store for global GDP growth, whatever recession we are in currently, will make little or no difference to the POO because of the unique supply constraints in this cycle. Hence, no worries, just keep on buying.
Of course he is the hero of the hour because of his two-year call on Canadian O&G companies, from when we had a negative POO in the forward curve in 2020. A brilliant call. Well done to him and he deserves every cent he has earned from it.
But the danger in following his pov slavishly now, is that he misjudges the extent of demand destruction in a global recession, which is nailed on. And as for his point about financial and physical demand being out of sync but physical winning ultimately,you only have to observe the pressure that the POG is under, or spot Silver, after years of manipulation by the big investment banks, and probably aided and abetted by the Feds too. It can go on for longer than most speculators can withstand, if using leverage. Retail still believes in PMs so they still buy and accumulate physical metal in the form of coins, bullion etc, as do I. But as a capital growth opportunity, I've relegated it to the bottom drawer for now, as this recession tightens its grip on available liquidity.
It is in that context that I made my earlier, perhaps too brief, remark about Nuttall's quoted remarks. Financial flows can overwhelm physical flows in the short term, which can last several quarters or longer. He will probably be right over the next several years, but PIs buying his uber bullishness today need to understand why they are invested in junior O&G companies, what their downside risk appetite is, and their time frame for creating capital (or total return) growth. Remember, the long run is made up of a series of interconnected short run cycles, any one of which can be marvellously bullish, but which at other times can also test the nerves of even the most committed holder.
Olderandwiser - you say that but he seems to be doing pretty well for himself and for Nine Point Capital ! Are you saying you know better than him and people should be listening to you ?
The other thing and mentioned below - everyone should DYOR - read what the various experts say - good and bad and try to form your own opinion.
Even Warren Buffet doesnt get it right 100% of the time - you dont need to - you only have to be more right than you are wrong!
I'm afraid Nuttall hasn't learnt anything from the Gold and Silver arena.
Energy Aspects: "we can only say in so many different ways that this is the tightest crude and products market ever, and prices will need to be high to kill demand. Any sell-off (while possible in this macro environment) will be limited and unsustainable."
Eric Nuttall - "The FINANCIAL demand for oil can at times collapse even when the PHYSICAL demand for oil remains strong, and this can be one of the biggest confusions/frustrations for energy investors to have to endure. Just like free cashflow, the physical wins out in the end."
When oil was at $70 per barrel, I3E was making great profits, even at $100 per barrel, I3E is making unbelievable profits and remember they have no debt
Pi’s are just panic selling, sell if you believe that is the best decision for you or don’t buy if your a new investor
But personally I am buying coz I know I3E fundamentals will out perform the market fears and when we are at 50p + , I won’t say I told you so
DYOR
TSSZ - you should know that you must not give investment advice here. At least put 'DYOR' after your comment in future...
DYOR
@TSSZ: "On days like this just buy buy buy more I3E shares, its a no brainer"
That's the reverse of what people need to do and the worst newbie investing mistake at the worst possible time - when entering a nasty bear market.
Apart from the fact that giving investment advice here is illegal, not everybody here will be sitting on a huge profit buffer, so you should avoid telling people to 'average-down' which is one of the worst possible things to do.
On days like this just buy buy buy more I3E shares, its a no brainer
"It's had a massive climb, so a fall isn't unexpected?"
I'm not so sure most expect oil to keep climbing, either way the issue here is when it climbs it's not having much effect on i3 but when it drops its having a marked effect, particularly as we don't know if this is cost of living crisis / UK bank concerns, or to do with gas restrictions due to the war. Biggest concern I think for most when we get very large moves like this is being able to point to a specific reason.
It's had a massive climb, so a fall isn't unexpected?
Currently over 7% down...not sure why yet, maybe the closedown of nordstream 1?