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Banks to write off :50mil
Leaves you have to issue 2.75 bil new shares at 20p.
Give 1.75 to new investor. 350mil. To get 55-60% of the mine.
Existing corners take the rest of the 1bil at par with their existing percentages to put 200m
They assume 35% of the mine (so diluted 50%)
We are left with 5%, so diluted 10x times.
This is really what I am thinking it will happen.
Its a big big big ask to expect each of the existing to put 60mil
You cannot ask a new to put 350 without giving 50% of the mine.
Banks might just be willing to write off 50m.
Is this fair? Well everybody loses.
And yes done at 20p. An mo you do jumps to 35-40.
"If assets sale gives shareholders £50m, that will be almost 20p. £10m gives 4p, £20m gives 8p."
If an assets sale gives shareholders £500million that will be almost £2 per share, but so what? An asset sale first has to pay off debtholders so the starting bid has to be in excess of however many hundreds of millions of debt is currently out there.
The situation the company is in makes it an utterly terrible entry point - its a high risk gamble that no one should touch with a bargepole, private investors are last in the queue in and almost certainly will get hugely diluted and more likely completely wiped out. Existing holders should also apply the same logic and protect whatever capital they have left and move on if for nothing more than your own sanity - but you won't as you are emotionally invested and hence dreaming up all kinds of unlikely scenarios.
You can but try ThePublican777 and IMO well done for the effort!
I was invested in HZM for many years and called it and exited before the storm....my thoughts were the size of the ££debt.....the same with HUM (and I highlighted that to you when you first looked at it from SHG as an alternative (the money at HUM just disappears)...and POLY...and SOLG....and GGP.
The only thing AIM is good for is the odd momentum play...you can't stay at the party long! Sadly it is addictive and I have still got 15% odd of my net worth in 56 different Shares (mostly in AIM).
Certainly well shagged at SHG.....but I can understand it from the Patel's point of view too (I'll post there next).
As for here at HZM the SP gets to a point where you've lost so much on paper...it's just not worth selling and the clutching of straws is all that is left.....it is worth trying to trade a bit to make up the losses but any gain of course is just at the expense of someone else's loss....sadly I think there is less chance of peaks here than troughs from now.....so probably not worth trading.
But it is up to each to make their choice......that e.g.1% to 2%? chance of success here could come good or you can take your remaining capital however small and start again elsewhere! There is still hope I've been in two spectacular less that 10p shares that have peaked above £15 and the GGP less than 1p to 38p (again called that one and valued it at 6 to 7p when at 29p and got banned from LSE).......sadly my problem is taking profits much too soon.
It hasn't been easy of late with 50% odd AIM indices down in the last 3 years or so and miners also....but I'm not giving up...ever.........but only with my 15% or so!
GLA
p.s. But my other 85% is well spread between cash, collectibles, property etc. the 15% is a gamble for me......reminds me of Eagles Hotel California "check out anytime but never leave" Sure the 15% is just like VAT...lol
It's all about risk/reward ........each to choose....everyone different!
Agree with Wasa & Mv, everyone is allowed their own opinion.
All I was saying about the banks, is that with any sale of the assets they get first bite. Shareholders come last and are therefore likely to get nothing.
In my view, if the banks through, say restructure, are willing to take a haircut, then I absolutely cannot see them giving any of the remaining 600m.
To me it makes no sense for them to keep lending.
So we might be faced with a scenario of 'find 550 new equity' to fund this all equity.
(Say 50m is written off from restructuring)
Such a huge figure to find : bad and bad and a bit of good.
You have to navigate this with a low enough price to attract external money.
As I don't expect the existing corners to refinance this with more than double of what they previously put in.
Hence a 4th player has to come in sight.
Well i did the math for myself and 1 and 2 p don't work.
Anything above 30p is unrealistically optimistic.
I am thinking it will be a figure 20-25p.
What chance i give it?
Well, but of course, 1%.
I don't see the banks getting all their $300m back, and La Mancha seeing 1% of $97.1m back. That's the slider you have to play with. What's a fair number. Surely that's what's being discussed, extensively, as well as where the missing $600m is going to come from (if indeed it can be found).
It's clearly not going to be great or even good for shareholders. If they are negotiating hard with the banks, because that is the only way to refinance, and the banks are going to take some hit, they will also insist that equity takes a hit. What people here disagree on is the extent of the hit. It might be 100% it might not. Given that the current price is at around 1 or 2% of the former price the betting is it is a pretty massive hit in any case. The contrarian view says not - we'll be back to £2 in no time, the contrarian view is this isn't completely done and the cornerstones don't want to refinance at 1p or 2p a (new) share. Both opinions are valid, as is the 'Horizonte in it's current corporate structure will never actually mine nickel' (technically they have mined it because there is a pile of ore but that's a moot point). What we don't know is which position is right and that's why there is still trading, both buys and sells, as people places their bets. All IMHO
I think we should go with 3m as that what prevailing market implies at 1p.
So the cornerstones spend all this (whatever) time, with legal (or without) doing the paper work to shaft it for that 3m.
And all this time, they’ve seen all the 99% collapse without moving a single share. None of them!
So they hold all the (whatever) cards at the negotiating table to achieve just that…
1p, because market does not reward failure.
And who’s this market that knows everything?
The mm’s algo who runs the bid/ask every morning..
And the mikes, wasas, and what not little (or big for that matter) chats in here…
…who has to be a reflection sample of the 49% market base…
This is by no means intended as inflammatory.
You have your thesis, we have ours… it’s a free country…
Why it had to become personal i never got it…
Anyhow… good luck to us all.
I wouldn't say it was allover just yet.
Something is going on 🤔
Whatever, it is ,it won't be good for existing shareholders.
In terms of asset sale the shareholders will get nothing as banks will get most of any funds in.
So we wait . Mid April might get some update 🤔
If assets sale gives shareholders £50m, that will be almost 20p. £10m gives 4p, £20m gives 8p.
I do wonder what it will actually take for people like KRSS to realise this is all over. Obviously a 99% loss and being short of a billion dollars doesn't cut it. So ?
Project NPV has risen after investment, imo it’s still going to generate value for shareholders in any scenario. It is something happened seldom but resource is intact, probability is high for returns to shareholders
It will be enough when the Publican or Contrarian think it is enough. You spammed the board daily. Everything you said did not come to pass. Everything they have said has. If anyone should not be posting its you. People like you are still floating theories as to the outcome, so is the publican and contrarian and they are fully entitled to keep posting their views - which continue to be right by the way.
Enough is enough ffs , move on !
ThePublican777
Posted in: HZM.L
Posts: 1,208
Price: 3.25
No Opinion
RE: Humm20 Mar 2024 12:52
I did sell this morning average 7.7P
Roughly lost 25 grand as had 200 grand invested
Was very surprised to get out that price as I sold all within 3 mins in chunks
I then saw the letter from the contractor that said HUM owes them 27 million
Wow !
I made a lot on Shanta and trading after I left Shanta 13.2P
I now have 175 grand left it’s not the end of the world
It’s another lesson nothings nailed on and AIM is full of crooks
I am now never investing in anything again and I’m taking my pension out of my hands something I should have done a long time ago.
I feel relieved and lucky
If you look at my posts over there you’ll see this is all accurate
Good luck here and that’s my final message on bulletin boards
This really is goodbye and good riddance to AIM
Really sad to see what has happened here. First invested back in 2008 and very luckily sold at £1.50 as needed funds for extension on the house. The remaining funds I invested in crypto currency which have more than quodruppled in value. High risk but so is the AIM market.
$97.1m. Imagine that. Go large, they have. Lose it, they did. Reckless gamblers, they are.
And just to point out the obvious, Karim Nasr was issuing a cautionary statement to La Mancha Investments S.à r.l. (“La Mancha”) - the organisation he previously led - that they might not get all their money back, when those cautionary statements were RNS'd.
The irony being, that prior to 10 March 2023 a date on which he resigned from his director role from La Mancha Services Ltd, he was a director of La Mancha when they made the investment.
I still maintain - much bigger players, with much better information than us, got it wrong. Gambling? Yes. Was worth a punt? Yes. GLA
That's the point, what's a positive outcome for recent shareholders & those who've averaged down around the lows will be totally different to those holding at £1.50/£1/or 50p !
So Publican stating its going to zero & everyone's getting wiped out is pure scaremongering as he doesn't know the funding price just as none of us do, the company itself included at this point in time.
The man's not even invested, yet spends much of his time here monotonously lecturing everyone on the perils of investing in a high risk junior mining company that's already lost 99% of its value, as though we didn't already know 😆.
He pathetically pretends he's some kind of saviour on a ridiculous mission to help hzm investors cash in their remaining 1% and see the ill of their gambling ways.
Unfortunately, the man doesn't appear to understand the vast majority of us are fully aware we are invested in a high risk AIM junior mining company and we are willing to lose the remaining 1% and punt even more on the outcome being more positive than the 1 or zero pennies he predicts.
If he's not careful he might end up owning the entire company lol - A big whole in the ground and some assorted machinery and a ton of liabilities
I see my handle being used in vain lol - I also see an incurable gambler - For the love of all that is holy to you do not listen to the gambler.
What, the publican posting factually incorrect or misleading statements? never.
If you bought shares at 3.7p and 3.6p on the prior days to those cautionary statements, and only on those prior days, and a finance deal is done, I think you might see a very positive outcome. Ironically I recommended the share exactly then to a couple of friends non-holders and explained it as a binary bet - deal you (probably win), no deal it's 0. They took the bet. Being gambling types.
For those of us with averages 100p+ then yes, I believe deal or no deal going to be hard to see a positive outcome :-) The problem is the cautionary statement mentions no average shareprice and why would it....
The Publican says " People need to read this ...They have stated even if a solution is found current shareholders get nothing "... But they didn't actually say that- they said any deal is unlikely to lead to a positive outcome for existing shareholders!
Now 5p/10/15 or 20p is not a positive outcome for the vast majority of existing shareholders so it's up to each investor to assess what the outcome might be.
I am, for example, betting on an outcome of more than 1penny and I 100% accept & agree that any deal will not be a positive outcome for existing shareholders but that's not to say the funding price will be 1penny , the definition of what isnt a positive outcome for existing shareholders could be anything from £1 to 1p.
Funding could as easily be at 5p or 10/15/20 or who knows what pence.
There's no point the cornerstones doing a deal @ 1p, If that be the case, then they would simply firesale it and not risk anymore capital having been wiped out but I expect a deal to be made at a higher than 1p price based on the projects attractive economics and I have as such been buying over the last few days as have other speculators gambling on a more than 1p outcome.
-111,
Well we are all gamers here, and that’s the point. Some are slightly more risk averse than others due to being burnt. Even yourself, but you came back and got burnt again. Each of us has to learn. Some are more thick skinned. You have learnt and now have retired from AIM. I too have learnt and when in a position will exit to. Sure others here will follow at some stage, but that’s up to them.
4-Apr-24 09:51:53 2.475 267,812 Buy* 6,628 O
04-Apr-24 13:21:53 2.175 400,000 Buy* 8,700