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Waste of time, vermehlo in my opinion. Nickel is not rare so if you want to develope a resource, grade is everything;
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/vermelho-nickel-cobalt-project/
Now, why would you develop a 1% resource when the big money is developing 1.5-1.7%?
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/HPAL-development-project-in-Indonesia_tbl1_356950657
Referencing the company website on develppement costs, of 500M£ for 25Kt, against industry standard of 2.3Bn$ current for a 50ktpa setup is just lunacy, it's quite clearly a lie to attract investment. I would also add, that vermehlo is probably a decade away at least from production and the bfs is a wate of time!
So answer me this; Why is vermelho in your calculations? In a wider market context,now, should all the phillipines 1% ore be in peoples global output forecasts also, along with all indonesian 1% that isn't being mined???
Just to quote a source for the 100kt plus...
BMO Conference presentation Feb 2023, slide 4.
https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20230301-bmo-conference-presentation.pdf
Totak PFS / FS of three projects 107kt p.a.
Vermelho will likely be resized down from 46kt to the 29kt for initial development to control capex.
Araguaia North does not have a current FS in development but was previously sized at 32kt p.a. By Glencore.
Araguaia South 29kt for lines 1 and 2. There is potential to add more lines to extend this further.
By the way, Glen haven't managed over 100kt for a while. 2023 YTD (Q3) 68kt FY projection ~85kt , 2022 81.6kt.
Glencore is one of the worlds leading Nickel producers at 102kt p.a. 100kt p.a. puts us right up there globally on one of the most important metals for clean energy technology. The mine is almost built. £55m market cap beggars belief.
Just to say the £1.7m wasn’t made up, it’s the total as stated in the 2022 annual accounts.
Pickedpeck - thanks for that. Huge capacity…. I think this is going to take off as the enhancements to production infrastructure and independent review should be the driver and assurance for additional funding thus allowing them to draw further on the senior debt facility and get Araguaia established and functioning. Good luck…I’m really bullish with this….
That’s a great reply.
Just look at the site, what is being constructed, and how close it is to completion. It is an enormous project, and yes most definitely the schedule of build and costings will vary.
The key factor in any project particularly a mining project is viability, and this is an enormous viable tier 1 mine that is in every way viable.
And another tier 1 mine in the making too.
There will always be challenges, always questions asked of any BoD, but it will be completed and it will be a globally significant mine. And, it it’s 100% owned.
Billy,
If you really want to dream about the long term future then the ultimate estimated potential of all the current assets is 105kt p.a. production, that still gives a 35 Yr mine life against best guess of reserves. The 60kt p.a. is the relatively short term (5 year ish) target of just A1, A2 and Vermelho first line. Araguaia North, Serra do Tapa, more Araguaia South lines and so on extend that a lot.
A major buys this and they could mine that 100kt plus, or more than Glencore or Anglo American current production, and probably top 2 or 3 in world production outside Indonesia.
That's without further exploration. The Araguaia license is more or less the size of Sussex and has more exploration potential to extend reserves.
Obviously we need to compete the first line at the first mine as a gateway to all that potential. But the Ni in the ground hasn't gone anywhere, and the potential is what attracted all the blue chip backers in the first place.
Obviously none of that will happen without a deal this month, but there is a big incentive to get one done.
Legin252 - I genuinely feel the same when I looked at this again. It’s a massive venture…they’re talking with the two mines a capacity of 60000 tonnes per annum. The maths is scary in terms of revenue @$18k per tonne.
Website reminder
Horizonte Minerals is a leading nickel company that is developing two, tier one projects in the Pará State, Brazil. The Araguaia ferronickel project and the Vermelho nickel-cobalt project are both high-grade, lower quartile, long mine life projects. This portfolio provides Horizonte with a scalable production profile of over 60,000 tonnes of annual nickel production, positioning the Company to be a significant global producer. As a critical component in both stainless steel and in electric vehicle battery technology, nickel is a key enabler of the clean energy transition. As a member of this sustainability driven supply chain, Horizonte is committed to the ethical, safe and responsible production of low carbon nickel products.
So £1.7m was just a made up number then?
I also am guessing the 'other' and share based bonuses go out of the window if the schedule isn't met. Share based payment will be the taxable value of anything granted and not necessarily cash value.
The 5m in options only has a value above the option price, so if the bulk granted last year were at 170p (? Anyone know the actual figure) then they are worth a CGT taxable 1p each IF the price gets to 171p, 30p each if it gets to 200p, and nothing at all with a share price of 170p and below.
That salary for a CEO is not that unreasonable. He is getting it for taking a £10m mkt cap junior explorer through bargain basement asset acquisitions, PEA, PFS, initial fund raises, DFS, complex low cost Export credit, bank debt, and equity raises, negotiating an extreme low cost power supply, a 100% off take contract, and getting a green field mine permitted and almost built in Brazil. Anyone here done that? Not exactly washing cars or walking dogs is it. What do you think he should be paid?
You're also a moron if you think for a moment that JM was at liberty to 'tip off' anyone outside of an RNS. Firstly it would be illegal, see what happened to Elon last year, secondly the board would have been controlling the message not JM, third the Nomad forced their hand on announcement before it was quantified and likely also prevented suspension, fourth the cornerstones would have had every expectation of being informed and controlling the news first. What do you expect? JM to phone and tip off every PI personally? Or just you?
Yes the schedule and mine build is compromised, the market herd baling out dumped the price and set the new value. Could it have been done better? Probably, but anyone that has run a very large and extremely complex project like this knows sh*t happens. You earn your crust by how you deal with the sh*t. Bringing in a new ops director, having an independent engineering assessment, walking the key stakeholders through the issue and forming a detailed action plan is what you would do. Jury is still out on whether that is enough to give them many choices on completion of the build.
When you read through the detail, it is very clear that this project is not only enormous, but it is being constructed professionally and will be cost efficient when in operation.
This is a tier 1 mining facility, which is 100% owned.
An additional tier 1 mine is currently in the feasibility stage.
I would recommend that anyone on the sidelines that is not invested should read this report as it gives a detailed company position.
Due diligence is key to any investment decision.
I am confident from my own due diligence that mid to long term will see significant increase in market cap, and a cost efficient operation that is profitable and sustainable with future tier 1 mine in development.
Not financial advice.
GLA
Https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/press-releases/2023/construction-update-for-the-araguaia-nickel-project-3/
Funding and senior lenders visit to operations;
As of 30 September 2023, a total of US$429 million has been spent on construction at Araguaia.
As of 30 September 2023, US$215 million has been drawn down from the senior secured project finance debt facility of US$346 million (the “Senior Debt Facility”). As of 30 September 2023, the Company had total liquidity sources of US$253 million comprised of US$131 million undrawn on the Senior Debt Facility and a Group cash position of US$122 million. Of the Group cash position, US$93m relates to the project to cover current construction activity and working capital which includes the full draw down on the Cost Overrun Facility of US$25m as well as US$5m cost over run equity. The cash balance is committed to near term capital expenditures. US$16m of the Group cash position is segregated for the development of Vermelho with the balance of US$13m spread amongst other entities for the ongoing running of the Group.
The remainder of the undrawn Senior Debt Facility of US$131 million is intended to be used to fund current project capital costs, and in order to draw down on the Senior Debt Facility, all conditions precedents must be satisfied including a cost to complete analysis. With the estimated increase in overall Project capital, the Company is working closely with its senior lenders and its cornerstone shareholders on a financing solution to solve the funding gap. The Company’s objective is to put in place a financing solution which will satisfy the cost to complete requirements and thereby allow the Company to continue to access its Senior Debt Facility.
The senior lenders and the independent technical engineers were on-site on 4 October 2023 undertaking a review of construction progress to date.
I was given grief by a fellow poster about ramping. I have never ramped and stand by my genuine beliefs that this company is going to make its shareholders very wealthy….the assets are huge and the remaining finance is small stuff when considering the genuine asset value of probably $6bn? Looking forward to 50p in a few weeks as a starter…
JM
Base £363k
Other £240k
Incentive plan £100k
Options 31 Dec 2022: 5m
Share based payment £478k
As per FT.
The Snake - £603k
Retter - £437k.
Stellar performance to date by the above.
Oh and did I miss where JM gets a £1.7m salary? I thought his salary was £325k but I admit I haven't checked for a long time. Are we sure the £1.7m isn't for the whole leadership team?
Bear in mind the options have an exercise price which was 10% higher than the then market price. I think from memory the options granted were at an exercise price of 170p but would have to check and CBA, the actual price is irrelevant as it is several multiples of the current price in any case.
The point is that JM, SR & Co only have options and hardly any shares, and due to the exercise price those options are effectively worthless unless there is a huge recovery.
The C suite effectively had their stakes wiped out to pretty much zero.
Well said LawrenceH.
TDT
I don’t know the full details but didn’t the bod award themselves options after the financing, many if which weren’t exercised. I note the 2022 Options were huge, JM got £5m worth on top of his £1.7m salary. How do the sleep at night? Answer: very soundly I’m sure.
Lawrence - always good to hear from you. Not bitter at all, In all honesty when i hit the sell button and was qutoed £1 i was shocked, it wasn't lower after reading the news- within minutes and days later it was significantly lower. HZM is a page in history for me and I'm very grateful i got out where i did but i will be watching it closely and commenting where appropriate as it interests me on how badly JM and Retter screw over PIs next and how they both will without a doubt benefit from it - It's inevitable.
"Fear" - what caused the fear? Could it Jm saying a few week back all good rerate expected and then the rns starting at least 200m short and 12 month delay. What did you expect? People to tell themselves "I'll fight the fear" and watch my invest reduce by significant amoun just to fight fear? Its logical reaction, you read the rns and then know the news being announced couldnt be worse and our BoD are deceitful in everyway. Its time to sell, knowing everyone else will likely do the same and then sp will sink to epic proportions.
Nice philosophical quote but 4pm is a little early to be smashing down the vino.
Like your optimistic outlook always Lawrence but in this case with an average of 72p, you got very up hill battle IMO.
Strow - not sowing saddness or trying to horrify anyone. There was enough of that in the October 2nd rns.
Good luck to all innHZM and have a good weekend. I have no doubt th Snake and Retter are having smashing weekend so far.
Well that’s me told hey
Won’t question your extremely clever thoughts again.
Please keep posting them for us all to feel sad and horrified about
Clever, You certainly sound extremely bitter for someone who says they sold out with a profit, if I had managed that manoeuvre I would have walked away and been thankful so your comments make no sense whatsoever.
Unfortunately I didn’t sell any as I didn’t know where the bottom was going to be and nothing I’ve read or heard leading up to the bombshell news lead me to believe there was an issue.
The reason the SP is where it is, is because of the herd, not MM’s not that the fundamentals which haven’t changed, it was pure FEAR !!
“A person who doubts himself is like a man who would enlist in the ranks of his enemies and bear arms against himself. He makes his failure certain by himself being the first person to be convinced of it.”
This is a simple truth, even if it’s a little painful to hear. Doubt in general, and self doubt in particular, is a killer. It will tear down your resolve, it will weaken your will, it will cloud your vision, it will wear down your spirit, and it will lead to failure!
Now that said I understand that some have lost heavily in RMM ACP just to name 2 and other sectors so they are acting on past experience and they have put themselves in a FEARFUL STATE! Making decisions with this mindset will only ever lead to Failure.
I have averaged down to 72p from £1.42 & if I had more funds I would have lowered it more, hey ho we are where we are & I await confirmation of our funding arrangements and moving forward in a Positive direction.
I am Positive of a successful outcome and a re-rate to fair value, that said, this is Not a buy recommendation but people need to look back at their own research .
GLA
Bitter, no. I exited at £1 with a small profit thankfully on my significant holding.
My "speculation" Is based on strong past precedent of PIs being shafted three times every time worse than the last.
On top the shafting, they decided give themselves commissions of millions for securing a unfit financing on top of there annual salaries of of several hundred K on a project which doesnt generate a dime yet. Based on the strong trend and past precedent of screwing the pi you can expect another shafting by JM and Retter because its what they do this time with the blessing of the apex predators.
Your speculation is strictly based on rose tainted glasses, NOTHING more so go read some and learn. Back to investopedia, and maybe start with what FTSE stands for.
Good point mumbles but I don’t think either La Mach’s or Orion would be interested in owning / operating the mine. That would leave Glencore who I imagine would very much like this on the cheap (sub £1 per share).
Mumbles, Bearing in mind if they wanted to make an offer to buy the lot that would be open for others to make an offer for the lot? Would they want that ? I doubt it ……
Been thinking about this today, as straight capital raise, a 3:1 rights issue would be required at 25p to raise $200 million USD. this would dilute the 3 major shareholders down to 12.5% if they dont take up their option at a combined cost of $ 100 million to retain their share of the $1.3 bn NPV ($565 m).
if they were to combine together for a take over at $1 a share, it would cost $135 million to purchase the shares they dont own, plus $200 million to finish the project, giving them 100% of the NPV for an additional cost of $ 235 million compared to a $ 100 million cost of maintaining their equity stake %.
They could of course offer less than a $1, say ($0.50), giving a combined cost $ 266 million to finish the project, rather than $335 million for a $1.00/share but they would have to get that past an EGM. Just a possiblilty to mull on.