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Slipanchor, understand your frustration but Dr T has already provided the roughly right statement re Lancaster in his Sep Results commentary below which for him is positively bullish. The calculations involved to get a more detailed update for Lancaster are extremely complicated and require a lot of accurate information, hence the 6 mths analysis to be RNS'd this month. Dr T will want to provide a precisely right answer rather than a precisely wrong one so just settle for the roughly right version already given for now.
Dr Robert Trice, Chief Executive of Hurricane, commented:
"I am delighted to announce our half year results for 2019, Hurricane's first financials to include revenue. The Lancaster Early Production System is the first phase of development of our significant Rona Ridge assets. Achieving first oil on schedule and on budget is a remarkable achievement and a huge credit to our operating team, our partners and contractors.
"Since first oil, Hurricane has sold over 1.6 million barrels of oil across four cargoes and Lancaster has been producing at an average of 14,100 barrels of oil per day. The operating cash flow that the EPS is delivering provides Hurricane with greater control of our future as we seek to deliver growth in reserves and production across all of our Rona Ridge assets.
"Whilst the financial security gained from production is crucial, the ultimate goal of the Lancaster Early Production System is to improve our understanding of the reservoir to aid planning of future phases of development of Hurricane's significant Rona Ridge resource. Throughout the start-up phase and following first oil, the reservoir has performed at the higher end of expectations. However, we remain cognisant that it will take at least six months of steady state production before we are able to evaluate the validity of our reservoir model.
Come on Dr T. you were quick enough to stop the rise with an RNS but you are doing SFA to stop the fall, which is reinforcing the case for the people trying to destroy the companies value
Shuttts, fair enough, but a little tip, information gathering normally involves reading and analysing rather than shooting opinions from the hip
Nobodies teased anything out of me, I posted that I'd sold when I sold.
There are no emotional apron strings, it's information gathering - either I made the right decision or the wrong decision, knowing which will help to make future investment decisions.
So now we have teased out that you have sold, why can't you cut the emotional apron strings you still have with the company and move on?
Yes I did say that because to me the sentiment was exceptionally bullish - but that was 7 months ago.
The sentiment now is **** poor and the share price is going the other way.
It's not got more of a feel of a Stanelco to it than a Tanfield, and I think that since sentiment has turned the other way it in a big way it isn't going to be hitting the kind of crazy highs that I thought I could possibly hit - not because it was inherently worth those values, but because sentiment could drive it there.
I now believe the news is bad, the model is flawed, and the share price will continue to fall - which is why I sold it all and transformed my paper loss into a real loss - since I'd rather take a known hit now, than an unknown hit later that could in theory end up being 100%.
There's zero chance there was an upside of 100% at the point I sold vs the price I bought at.
Shutts, who posted this on 16th May I wonder?
Hi Hydrogen,
I think it's impossible to say since there are so many variables that we don't know the answers/numbers to.
However, what I do think is that HUR has the potential to "do a Tanfield" and hit highs that have no bearing on reality whatsoever, since it's story and the amount of oil down there makes for an ideal stock for speculators and get rich quick merchants to drive the price ever higher.
Back in the day no one would have believed that lowly little Tanfield could go from c.50p to £11 a share on nothing but hype and big claims for the future, but it did before it came crashing back down again.
I think HUR has a similar story of possible big gains in the future, but unlike Tanfield it is based on sound and conservative numbers and managed by a really solid CEO and BoD, whereas the former was all fluff and smoke and mirrors and based on nothing more than fantasy and rampant speculation.
So I do believe we could easily see £5 - not necessarily because the company is going to be worth £5 at that point, but because greed and excitment will push it there.
IMHO
Couldn't you spend your time more usefully by studying the stocks in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, rather than AIM oil stocks?
I am just curious as to why you're interested in HUR.
Are you still invested in it?
And he never bought any shares in HUR at any price - so if we're playing do what Buffet does then you lose.
LONGWAIT - surely all clairvoyance is delusional.
I'm not claiming to have psychic abilities, I'm simply extrapolating the blatantly obvious to it's logical conclusion.
Don't worry if it all goes wrong I'll send you a sixpence to stick in yer christmas pud.
Buffet once invested in a company at $5 per share.
The price fell to $2 and he bought more.
He didn't say, 'But the company is sat on it's hands watching the share price fall, and fall, and fall - and they still say nothing. Which tells you it's because there's nothing they can say to contradict the share price fall, which means the share price fall is correct.'
Buffet is talking about following overall market trends, not speculating on an individual high risk stock - in fact mentioning Buffet and HUR in the same breath is laughable, he wouldn't touch it with a 10ft barge pole.
As Warren Buffet says "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
'... the next RNS will decimate the share price.
That is logic ...'
Amazing.
You seem to be confusing delusional clairvoyance with logical ability.
LONGWAIT: "Since neither you nor I know of any cause of the share price fall, how can it be contrary to what I want to believe?" That's got to be one of the most non-sensical things you've said, and you've got some real competition in your previous comments.
Clearly what you want to believe is that HUR is amazing, is worth a £gazillion, there's no risk at all, everything is 100% hunky spunky dory and you're going to be rich, rich, rich beyond your wildest dreams.
But the company is sat on it's hands watching the share price fall, and fall, and fall - and they still say nothing. Which tells you it's because there's nothing they can say to contradict the share price fall, which means the share price fall is correct.
Meaning the next RNS will decimate the share price.
That is logic, and logic beats flights of fancy and wanting to believe HURs streets are paved with gold.
It provides an opportunity to pick the shares up at a steal of a price, be brave when the herd are scared.
It's all about sentiment. And I don't think it's just traders that dived in too soon.
You can keep saying that there is no reason for the fallin the sp til you're blue in the face Longwait, but the simple fact is there is more negative sentiment here than positive, and until that changes shares will be sold.
'And there IS a reason for the share price - it's just that the reason is contrary to what you want to believe, so you have dismissed it.'
Since neither you nor I know of any cause of the share price fall, how can it be contrary to what I want to believe?
And there IS a reason for the share price - it's just that the reason is contrary to what you want to believe, so you have dismissed it.'
Since neither you nor I no of any cause of the share price fall, how can it be contrary to what I want to believe?
It's actually quite commonplace for a company to issue an rns stating they know no reason for a dramatic price movement. Be it up or down
"There is simply no rational explanation for the current valuation."
Except that's life .......more sellers than buyers.
However I think it indicates the type of PI in this share, just in for a quick buck and then out just as fast if they can! Most haven't a clue about the oil business in general and HUR in particular. It's the herd instinct, a whiff of something and its a self fulfilling stampede!
They could issue an RNS if they had a reason to do so - all we have currently is a load of whispers on the BB's with absolutely no foundation - there may be a problem, there may be no problem - we don't know.
However, they have said very recently that they will update the market in December and given no one any reason to think there is a problem - why would or should they react to the desires of a few PI's to arrest the fall in SP.
It will recover and recover strongly if the news warrants it, so I repeat it's stick or twist depending on your risk appetite. I asked at the end of last week for any evidence of a problem - still haven't seen anything so I take it no one knows anything other than what everyone knows.
>> they could issue an RNS observing the tumbling share price
..and so could PMO, RKH, MATD, ECO, CHAR - Tullow already have. ;)
LONGWAIT - they could issue an RNS observing the tumbling share price and negative speculation and say there's no reason for it - you know, like they did to shut down the positive rumours.
And there IS a reason for the share price - it's just that the reason is contrary to what you want to believe, so you have dismissed it.
You seriously suggest that HUR issue an RNS because some posters have convinced themselves there is a water problem?
HUR have already made it clear that there isn't a problem and they have provided figures by way of explanation.
Maybe they should have issued an RNS to reassure TDG too, because he is convinced that HUR have too many shares?
There is simply no rational explanation for the current valuation.