Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I totally agree Trump will be hell bent on a combination of nationalistic chest beating, and laying blame at China’s door for everything that COVID has created plus much more. The trade war messages will be repeated and ramped up, it makes you wonder whether global equities will withstand, unless continued central government intervention in both east and west continue to support for foreseeable ? It all could get very ugly eventually.
Contemplating the currency peg being pulled, surely this spells disaster for HSBC and shareholders ? I’m surprised shares didn’t drop more or whether will today, led from HK Hang Seng index trade ? Perhaps dismissed as Trump hot air threat so far ?
What does it potentially mean ? Well HK and HSBC in a large part, has been China’s gateway to the West with their goods and currency. My understanding is, if the peg is removed the likelihood is the currency becomes destabilised and massive dollar reserves will be needed to stop the local and mainland currencies having to pay significantly more for USD. In having publicly announced Asia strategy as all in approach recently, HSBC is going to see profits savaged under this scenario and margins in other Asian markets eroded, due to inevitable capex cuts that would surely follow as a chain reaction to lower profitability ?
The ‘British Bank’ is right at the eye of a potential storm appearing on the financial radar. It could take another course, but if doesn’t then share price surely falls at mere prospect ? At what point do western investors wake to this reality and the follow up of stock cheapening to extent that a takeover from China becomes not just inevitable but the only choice ? A previous post covers the uncertainties that surround state intervention and impact that may have.
Remember what the initials stand for, it appears Trump does.
Am pleased to be out of this with a reasonable profit
So much uncertainty and risk to carry with a long position
Good luck to all brave enough, but think I will watch and wait.....
M
With the US Presidential elections looming, Trump will inevitably focus his rhetoric & economic sanctions on China.
HSBC becoming a Chinese Bank, I would not have an appetite for those shares.
GLA.
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/HSBA/hsbc-hit-as-white-house-said-to-weigh-future-of-hong-kong-us-peg-c2ykw2gd3rqgpft.html
Significance of this possibility not factored in yet, I won’t pretend to understand how significant it would be but cab be sure it’s a huge game changer.
Beware the unknown in this case, unless someone wants to educate why it could be a positive ? I’d be thinking a liar if did, unless you want to hasten moves towards a mainland buy out and be a shareholder in Chinese bank instead ?
Looking fairly grim in Hong Kong and this is only early days. Not one for the investor at the moment but more for the lucky trader.
"HSBC fell as much as 3.1% in Hong Kong, the most in more than three weeks, making it the biggest drag on the benchmark Hang Seng Index. "
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/hsbc-slumps-as-us-weighs-moves-to-punish-hong-kong-banks-2157316
I’ve never quite understood a few things :-
1. The need of people online to personalise matters, when only insight not buy/sell is shared
2. The failure of same to recognise market rather than individual stock movement.
3. Identifying a small rise as a Pyrrhic victory when a stock has slid so much further than previous levels.
4. The fact I’ve previously stated the advantages HSBC has, as well as its challenges and failings
5. I do not hold the stock as believe the risk/reward premium is significantly higher than many believe
I never said they were dead, nor likely to be, but they and their SP have been looking pretty sick for some time
HKtruth, so HSBC is not dead yet then?
CV19 Deaths seem to be staying flat despite a 21 day lag with cases .... So that is a positive .... still the case that populist USA , UK and Brazil are among the worst performers in the world.
Took profits here today ... leaving shares Profits To add to longer term hold .... 380 again would suit me fine ;)
A good day across the board, which usually aids financials. HK market up nearly 4% and more conservative FTSE may breach 2%,. I’m waiting and hoping for US to follow suit, with futures looking strong for now.
What has prompted today’s jump ? US virus figures, where deaths lagging the spiralling case numbers ? Always going to be the case, or has Donny declared it as a win against the invisible enemy ? July 4th weekend US hysteria maybe ?
Over £4 and a good foothold for HSBC and as yet profit takers not jumped in, the trend will probably be with broader market as per recent weeks
HK; my 381 looking good at the moment. 404 as i type (+5%)
Last time i sold out far too early @ 393 and they went to a whopping 428
GL all.....
35% is good going HK; well done.
Started trading on 12 March after everything collapsed.
Trading HSBC, AV, LGEN, BT at moment.
Previously done very well too with GLEN, RDSB & IMB
If market say trade, you trade
If market say invest long term, then do it
Work whatever market you are presented with HK
Good man, volatility the trader’s friend for now, as markets no idea where to go. I’m circa 35% up in 4 months so struggling with any kind of conventional wisdom.....
My 381 looking ok ,so far, HK
Miffed i didn't top up yesterday @370 tho
Remember, i'm a trader. Trading the high's & low's
Hoping for a run up to £4; 428 less than a month ago......
HK, yes am worried about situation there. & today is a particularly bad day as i read on South China Morning Post.
Worse for you who reside there of course.
For Sec Raab has just made statement in HoC re HK situation. Very serious indeed.
Am going to run with these a little but do take your point & consider HSBC one of my higher risk trades...
Waiting for Dow to open 2:30 GMT as that will give FTSE direction & pressure HSBC lower (or not)
Yes and to you. If HK volatility does not phase you then Prudential in similar boat but may be a better “British” bet as they tend to have greater momentum on the good days and percentage returns are proving to be bigger and faster
Yes, HK i am a short term trader; not a long term investor. Recently been trading these & also BT.
Short term meaning (to me) 2/3 weeks. BT last week was in & out in 2 days; 114p to 119p. Trading the low's & high's. My £7k @ 381 am happy with. @ 370 i will round off to £10k & bring my average down.
Don't think i'll achieve the 428 mark but above 400 i hope. Target is usually cap gain of £500 to £1000.
Fingers crossed......good luck to all
Nearly a month is a while when you guys were talking about short term trading with me !! That 373p support being tested on a day and week where FTSE going nowhere fast. Your 381p should be fine depending upon timeframe, should be.......
"Fickle world though and a rebound not beyond question but 400p+ has not been sighted In a while now"
Was @ 428 on 6th.June HK.....
Am back in here @ 381 for £7k
Good support @ around 370/372 mark
Watch out for the news today. Birthday of PRC and large numbers protesting on streets, as well as increased police presence. Could be an interesting test of stance being taken by both sides when considering the new security laws. Note UK government has stated will reconsider Huawei role in 5G, looks like Mark Tucker opinion counts for nothing with Boris !!
More patience needed, the border with mainland reopening extended a further month at least. Again, I emphasise the significance of the loss of income from repatriation of yuan by HSBC, all AML requirements adhered to of course !! Fair play to the guys who took offence at my sharing truths, there seems to be a lot of support at that 373p level but should be noted that both FTSE and US markets are pretty strong still whilst HSBA is only recovering on the best days. Hovering just above that number now, the downside could be severely tested if a pessimistic swing occurs which has every chance with virus and oil volatility ? Fickle world though and a rebound not beyond question but 400p+ has not been sighted In a while now. Q2/half year update Won’t be far off and if anything but scary I’d be both surprised and suspicious of a polished turd !!
Asian revenue and a UK regulator which stole our dividend, lovely.
No dividend and no share price growth and probably another 10 -20 % reduction in SP with another market rout.
I'm starting to think this has almost nothing good going for it, caught between the USA and China who do you take your chances with the devil or the deep blue sea?. Yes I do own shares here but I wish to God i didn't.!
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3091031/china-loosens-rules-fund-flows-between-greater-bay-area
In response I attach the above to illustrate the massive advantage in terms of potential over UK rivals. Hingston is recently promoted head of HK, with all those below him moving up one notch, based upon the perceived success locally. I’d have limited faith in any of their ability to truly maximise the overwhelming opportunity, however, it’s so vast they will probably stumble to “success” versus internal group equivalents and UK peers who are not in the game locally.
Quinn has effectively publicly stated the group’s asset allocation is Asia, so that’s what investors should consider in what for now is a British bank. Are you a believer in the region’s future, the political backdrop and a British bank’s ability to manoeuvre its way through the peaks and troughs ? Will it be able to stay a British bank and do you wish to be invested in a bank that potentially becomes like so many other Chinese banks and be state controlled ?
These are the realities of an investment in HSBC, if you would not pick a unit trust with such weighting then I don’t think the British bank wrapper should fool anyone.
HKtruth , So what is your trading strategy ?
Aside from the costs of patience shareholders have endured , the facts remain. HSBC is surrounded by varied risks from an economic and political backdrop.
Should there be confidence in the big 3 appointments to arrest what could become an historical slide ?
Chairman Tucker - not a banker. Long time HK face enjoying success in CEO roles at both AIA and previously, Prudential. Will be familiar with mainland landscape but who could not have succeeded in the past decade plus of massive repatriation of Yuan into the global financial system via insurance bonds ? The commissions so widely criticised and removed in UK markets prevail and are of little consequence to those seeking to switch large volumes of cash out of China. As I’ve described elsewhere, the continued closed border and this easy money is what is hurting HSBC not this assumption that loans turn bad overnight. Still under DPA in US, Tucker will do well to maintain legitimate income as scrutiny and interpretation of it intensify.
CEO Quinn - insider whom Tucker turned to in what seemed a very public last resort when notable outsiders approached and declined the poison chalice invitation after a prolonged period of searching. Part of the old guard, an era where acquired business has now been lost as regulatory adherence meant mass enforced customer exits In the face of inevitable censure. Has now filled the basket full of Asia eggs and entrusted the limited existing talent pool in Hong Kong to be an even greater saviour, whilst shedding thousands globally whom do not share the previously mentioned market advantages.
CFO Stevenson - ex RBS, hence will be accustomed to a crisis and one assumes his appointment was around competency there, rather than jobs for the boys that saw those that preceded taking their “skills” to similar roles at Glaxo ? Further assume he sits in UK or is he enjoying tax advantages in HK also ? If numbers are his responsibility, perhaps volume and value of HSBC accounts held by global hierarchy in HK may be something he and gatekeepers need ponder from a CRS perspective ? Maybe something to remind all of their tax responsibilities when that next global meeting is scheduled to align with Hong Kong 7s rugby ? As an aside, anyone know the eventual outcome of past CEO Stuart Gulliver Panama papers and UK/HK tax investigation by inland revenue ?
Netflix Dirty Money featuring HSBCis such a revealing watch and surely has a great follow up episode just waiting to be filmed ? Who might be the leading characters ?
Let’s dream of it being a tale of where they turned matters around