George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Clot,
So even a Verde two year outlook figure is more accurate than a Harvest guidance figure!
That sums it up!
'...Harvest sales were only 14% of guidance figure.' - that's 86% down.
Were Verde as good, or as bad as this?
'So I'll have a rough guess that 2023 invoiced rev is down c.78% compared to 2022 and down c.57% compared to 2021.'
Good Look
Don't really care about your convoluted thinking Smalley. The simple fact is Verde had an INITIAL target that they missed by c70%
Maybe you could share the HMI/Beaufort stuff. That is supposedly the purpose of these boards, the dissemination of information, not childish name calling
Clot,
Beginning of May 22, not mid 2022
The clue's in the title:
Verde’s 2022 guidance and two-year outlook revised upwards.
The HMI 2023 target 200kt, the huge invoiced sales for Dec 22, add to that the Feb 23 & Mar 23 invoiced sales figures came in very handy for that R$5,000,000 loan. Great idea to defer repayments, very lucky considering all that thinking?
I would have wonder if the loan was foremost in their thoughts, not 2023 target.
Good Look
Yes smalley from the two year outlook in mid 2022, the same time HMI would have started thinking about their 200k target.
pls do share your info, its what these boards are meant to be for.
So you now admit that Verde had a 2m target for 2023
Clot.
Those are figures form two year outlook releases - try looking at figures in the PFS, gets worse!
I've got some figures from Harvest/Beaufort that make the current situation with Harvest look a complete basket case.
Should I start comparing those figures?
The figure for 2023 was dependant/based on the 2022 target being achieved - it wasn't.
They only managed 628kt.
Target for 2023 was 800kt to 1,200kt.
Good Look
Can't you Smalley. More fool you
Not as smart as you like to think are you
https://investor.verde.ag/category/guidance/#:~:text=May%2016%2C%202021.-,2023%20Guidance,Year%20(%E2%80%9CYoY%E2%80%9D).&text=On%20April%2026%2C%202022%2C%20Verde,of%20microorganisms%20to%20its%20Product.
Can't see you backing that one up clot,
Good Look
...my GUESS is that algorithm(s) is still looking to, in the round, buy more here ..and continues trying its best to confuse and disguise around this intention..
...and the algo(s) would like to tease out more shares from existing holders to mop up at sub 1.75p, of course... hopefully few currently holding oblige.. and algo(s) is/are open to pushing this s/p decently on up from here.. and such activity/rally begets further buying again.. getting us to a fairer - imho - level of 2.5p +
Come on Smalley you should be better than that
You know as well as I do that Verde's original guidance for 2023 was 2m tonnes that was subsequently revised downwards
Clot,
Verde guidance/sales target for 2023 is 800,000 - 1,200,000t.
Q4/23 and as such FY/23 for sales figures have not yet been published.
However, they have provided an estimate FY figure of 427,750t.
From those figures Verde sales were 53% of guidance figure.
On the same basis, Harvest guidance for 2023 was 200,000t and they sold 28,707t, so Harvest sales were only 14% of guidance figure.
I think clot fits, no excuse!
Good Look
Smalley why embarrass yourself with stupid name calling.
If the market is just an excuse Smalley, did Verde make an excuse as well. After all, they forecast sales of 2m tonnes for 2023 and achieved less than half a million
Clot,
'under-performed'
Yes!
'last year' - I'll assume you mean 2023?
So I'll have a rough guess that 2023 invoiced rev is down c.78% compared to 2022 and down c.57% compared to 2021.
What does your RNS data say?
'overall market was massively down'
'overall market', is there one for remineraliser niche products?
The market for conventional fertilisers was difficult, but 'massively down', no, that's just an excuse.
Good Look
So Smalley do you believe HMI underperformed on sales last year.
My reading is that the overall market was massively down
Thanks for that feedback smalleyus
And I agree you generally are indeed well worth paying attention to here
Hmmm, reading of the RNSs?
Best you find a better way to get that data!
Some have?
Good Look
Niceto...
'....early June or early July, though nothing to do with figures from Harvest.'
Nothing has changed but depends on those figures + the 6,173t carry-over at R$200/t
IMO there's still a huge risk here.
Good Look
Smalley my reading of the RNS is that HMI upped prices, but kept them significantly below more traditional suppliers and massively increased their sales.
I could be wrong as I don't have full market sales data for 2023 Vs 2022 but I don't believe HMI particularly underperformed the market.
Are you still open to buying in here around Summertime smalleyus?
Or Spring time even?
And what might be an acceptable price range to you for any such buying here?
I can't recall any such shortage of fertiliser in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine (February).
Record high prices yes, but no shortage in Brasil.
I do recall Harvest raising their prices a number of times during 2022.
Big mistake that IMO, surely it was an ideal opportunity to gain market share and demonstrate there is an alternative, yet Harvest chose to...would profiteer be too strong word?
Many farmers chose to use the residual macronutrients rather than purchase expensive conventional fertilisers.
Along came 2023, falling fertiliser prices.... over-supply available and we know the rest.
Harvest's 200kt target for 2023 ended at 28kt sold?
Good Look
Initially, there was a shortage of fertiliser everywhere when sanctions came in against Russia, but the status of friendly country for Brazil meant that possibly a larger share of Russia's fertiliser would come to Brazil. This was one thought I had a while back when they were designated a friendly country.
Not sure if this is impacting sales or not
Still out as cannot see a clear way forward yet, and unsure how 'pent up' costs such as directors' salaries are going to impact down the line.
as a relative newcomer here,18 months,the only accurate posts i read here are those posted by smaleyus. everyone else seems to be ****ging him , ramping,or trying to find any excuse to justify buying this pitiful stock. i only arrived her after doing a bit of research into mosaic . i must say that the overall regulatory performance of aim stocks leaves a lot to be desired which is probably why mcmasters is comfortable here.
think i'll stick to the us exchanges in future.
Algor buying here ,will revert to sell shortly if it follows usual pattern
Niceto...
Nothing has changed here........
Good Look
Smallyus is not bopd though bopd has a scam going with his so called secretary which I caught him out on. There was at least one other id who was an alter ego of Smalley, used the same writing style and even phrases. E.g. rock dust and cryptic references
Looking thru trades here today.. I'm thinking algorithmic from Professional Investor/s..
Smallyeus could of course be tied in with such in some shape or form, granted....
I'll start to pay some attention to this now.. open to topping up here - as I think from last RNS that this business could easily see a decent turnaround in 24 - but will look to get a better feel for this rally in coming days..
(very tricky share this.... and I often wonder about leakiness in hmi.l too.. so caution always appropriate here imho)
DYOR