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I don't understand how the invoicing in this business works along side the product delivery ..and so ask you - who understand a lot about many aspects of this business - some questions, please:
How long after/alongside 'fertiliser' - aka 'dust' by you - delivery might HMI, on approx average even, issue an Invoice to the customer for the product delivered?
Also, is it correct for me to assume that HMI don't issue invoices ahead of actual product delivery to the customer, invoicing only ever happens alongside/after delivery
How long, on average, after an invoice has been issued might HMI expect to get paid by the customer? ( I know it could vary... there may be some bad debts too.. hence just a rough on average figure please.. including.. banks etc may lend to customer to allow pay quickly .. or some have cash saved to pay quickly .. or some may be allowed pay after their harvests have been sold etc..? Please elaborate a bit as you see fit )
I understand that some orders may be placed in one for delivery in a future quarter ..as much as for delivery in the quater they're placed in .... and some of those orders may subsequently get cancelled by the customer hence why Orders versus invoiced sales can be plenty different.. what I need to understand better is why invoiced sales can be plenty different to Invoiced and delivered sales
Looks like the Q1 results are out tomorrow then !
Smalleyus you say:
''The Q1/23 RNS stated 3,560t invoiced and delivered, but they actually invoiced far more than then 3,560t in Q1/23.''
This has me thinking that there are potentially three different target figures that could be in play here:
1) Sales Orders received (which is also referred to as 'Placed Orders' in RNS's previously and probably going forward too)
2) Sales Order Invoiced
3) Sales orders Invoiced and delivered
I apologise for overly simply assuming 2) and 3) to be effectively the same thing in my previous posts.. and not get they are different
I'll also note that Mr McMaster had 'Invoiced sales' as the basis of his targets for 2023
as in: ''invoiced sales guidance of 200,000 tonnes for FY 2023."
But
he's changed to 'placed orders' as the basis of his targets for 2024
as in: ''gives Board confidence to set 2024 sales guidance of 70,000 tonnes of placed orders.''
And we don't know exactly what he's going to feedback us of the above 1) 2) 3) in the Q1 Update.. but we can expect 'placed orders' - as in 1) above - in the Quarter to be fed back on as that's the basis of his 24 targets .. and while we could potentially get 2) Sales Order Invoiced AND 3) Sales orders invoiced and delivered ; I'll offer it's more likely we only get feedback on one of those (and/or we get something else different again .. as Mr McMaster likes moving the goal posts )
Finally, when you say : ''When I stated 'less than 9,000t is disappointing' I'm referring to invoiced only in Q1/24 irrespective of when the orders were placed.''
I do hear what you're saying .. but - per afore - offer there's another angle of complexity too in that you're referring to 'invoiced only' and not 'invoiced and delivered'
.... And I further offer that you may not even get a figure for 'invoiced only' in this upcoming Q1 24 RNS to compare your 'less than 9,000t is disappointing' shout too ?
As you may - just/instead - get 'Sales orders Invoiced and delivered '
(and/ or something else different again even)
Please correct any errors I've made above.. in case I've just confused myself - further- now?
Thanks
Michu
Niceto...
The Q1/23 RNS stated 3,560t invoiced and delivered, but they actually invoiced far more than then 3,560t in Q1/23.
When I stated 'less than 9,000t is disappointing' I'm referring to invoiced only in Q1/24 irrespective of when the orders were placed.
Good Look
PS: I do get that the target offered by B mcMaster for 24 was placed order only :
''gives Board confidence to set 2024 sales guidance of 70,000 tonnes of placed orders.''
I would have liked there to have been a target for Invoiced sales too .. as that is far more meaningful and we've discovered is generally a -very- meaningfully different - as in LOWER - number than placed orders.
But history shows us that Mr McMaster likes giving himself significant wriggle room.. and is plenty partial to smoke and mirrors too !!
Whl2, I cut and paste from that 18th April last year Q1 update here :
Sales orders received total 16,755 tonnes versus budget of 12,000 tonnes
Sales orders invoiced and delivered total 3,560 tonnes
Both Smalleyus and I are focused on invoiced sales in the trail below .. far more than orders received ..
So it's the 3560 tonnes that I'm saying will be 7000 or 8000 tonnes this year Q1 .. and also what Smalleyus is referring to when he says less than 9000 tonnes would be disappointing....
ie what I'm hoping for is approx. a doubling versus last year for Q1 ..
which I would hope would support a decent s/p rally here off the back
There are sellers and buyers at all levels lbarlow.. if you're a large seller around 2.65p then I understand you could undermine any rally.. but the market cap. here would be so low versus a business that might easily be turning itself decently around in 2024, that I would hope a significant amount of buying would be occurring here in the 2's - and 3's p even - to absorb any any such meaningful selling...
Should be earlier.
Last year early April the MD was busy on site discussing ideas to achieve >200kt sales for this year, planting vegetables in Carmo do Paranaiba and looking at other projects (somewhere else).
But if they hang on until end of April I could ......LOL
Q1/2023 numbers released last year on 18th April so a fortnight to find out. 16.75kt reported last year so I think smalleyus' figure is more accurate, perhaps 10kt.
Niceto, you are missing one very important fact.
If there is a stock price rally to anywhere near your idea of 3 to 4p then I believe there will be a massive sell off by people like myself that just want to get out of this dog of a company with minimal loss. Just go back and check inflows that occurred between 2 and 4p that will almost certainly bail.In my case that will be anywhere close to 2.65p
Then it seems that I'm more bullish than you now.
You say 8,000t is bullish and I say less than 9,000t is disappointing.
Good Look
As a shareholder and believer in a half decent turnaround happening here in 2024 my q1 guess might be a bit too bullish I'll offer back to you now, Smalleyus.. I first got to 7,000 odd tonnes q1 24 Invoiced sales and then, on reflection, revised up to 8,000....
Sub 9000 tonnes Invoiced sales may reasonably be defined as disappointing by you, I get.. but from where this co. was at in 23 - in a total mess - any decent turnaround here will be incremental and over years more than months..
PS: The market cap here is still decently under 3 m gbp as I type.. and, in the round, even in a half baked turn around scenario, that feels low to me.. and at 3 to 4 p s/p range I'm looking forward to it's still 7 m ish market cap only.. ( This versus two years ago here when the m/c rallied hard up to 30m gbp plus, which some thought was still too low then, for comparison)
Good reasoning there Niceto....though invoiced sales are now the main event here. Orders placed may just get the shareholder excited but with Harvest track record with orders placed, who would or who cares...........?
I'll stick to 'not guessing this time' but your 8,000tonnes, invoiced, would be the highest tonnage reported for Q1 so far?
That said, and this is not a guess, I'd say anything less than 9,000tonnes invoiced would be disappointing.
Good Look
Accepting Invoiced sales will always be at least decently lower in whatever period than placed orders at hmi.l; I'm hoping that a significant amount of the approx 6000 tonnes that were placed orders last year but yet to be invoiced at year end will be invoiced in q1 2024 .. say approx 4500 tonnes of that 6000 tonnes .... and I'll also guess that approx 13000 tonnes of placed order will occur in q1 of which approx 3500 tonnes will actually be invoiced in this quarter...
So Invoiced Sales of approx. 8000 tonnes in total in q1 is my guess Smalleyus
(PS; Accepting q3 as the busiest quarter here as a rule, and that by a good distance too, I'll further GUESS at approx 45,000 Tonnes invoiced in total in 2024.. which, while no more than semi decent in my mind, will be very progressive from - a dire granted - 27,000 ish invoiced sales in 2023 and could under pin a very good s/p rally here from .75p on Jan 1 - when this company going under in 2024 was a distinct possibility - to v approx 3.75p by year end 2024.. a year when this company turns itself semi decently around)
Quisad you r annoying ending a statement with a question mark. learn some manners in your grammar.
Bfdinvestor aka trading4good (barred from the site for his absolutely appalling behaviour ) should come with a wealth warning to other readers. He is a serial loser with him losing 90% of his investment in HMI and BOO,all the time ramping and sniping at other more sensible posters with a better understanding of shares. Please beware. It will almost certainly cost you to listen to his ramping!
Anyone going to have a guess what the Q1/2024 invoiced sales figures will be?
I'm not guessing this time, wouldn't be fair really?
Good Look
Barlow see my previous message on bopd
I asked about bopd
Trust me "quisad" is now smalley , the similarities are glaring. check the messages from 2021 and before. Cyber warriors like to use many identities. Just look at advfn it s like an echo chamber with the same person talking to himself, kreature etc... possibly also quisad from the style.
I haven't seen bopd posting for a long long time.
What makes you think he is Smalley?
I’m convinced Smally is bopd
'Big Bad John 'couldn't save the mine so I dont think you've got any chance with this one
You posting 5 messages a day is bad for you smelly but not as bad as it is for the rest of us. if you re not gaining financially of course.
We all have our crosses to bear.
Good Look
Lbatlow o I've worried you could be losing your entire rockbum investment. I d have expected you to cheer my coruscating smeel