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Thank you Jatw for your opinion.
More than 20 year old “budding” pharma company. based in a country with stable governance and economy. 5000 personnel with 1200 working in oncology and immunology. 3 oncology drugs already in the pharma market in China, one is marketed in the USA, pending approval in Europe. Finally, attractive pipeline and a healthy positive balance in the bank. Market value a mere 3 billion!
Yet, no news of ‘expression of interest’ for takeover (or merger) from bigger companies.
(Possibly, that is the only hope for long term holders)
Amones, from what I can tell AZN has been acquiring in areas that are novel but adjacent to their existing businesses.
They get new capabilities and can then explore combinations with their other therapies. HCM may be producing better/ safer compounds but if you already own similar assets the incremental value may not be there to justify the 5/6bn CKHH would want to sell up. However a share based merger when you can then take forward the better products and deprioritise parts of the research programmes would add value to the combined entity.
Innovent results are tomorrow….it carries a higher MV and has a larger pipeline but makes larger losses. The company strategies seem to be similar and they are at a similar position of moving towards sustainable profitability. It will be interesting to see how the results are assessed in the market..
I think we know the answer is four letters…….CKHH…..
The assets and the pipeline can be evaluated and a number suggested for a deal, but unless it is a very large number (2.5-3x current) I doubt CKHH would entertain it.
It will be interesting to compare the assets/ pipeline/ number of scientific staff/ ongoing clinical studies of various drug candidates/ research and production facilities of HCM and the two companies that have been taken over.
What might the reasons for HCM not being (at least, until now) considered for takeover? Is it the “Grand” market value of 3 billion USD/ the pipeline unattractive??
..from a company that HCM is currently partners with, who have expressed a strong commitment to China, building out new offices and R & D facilities, not to mention oncology portfolio.
Two deals in one month..
Astra seems to be buying the Company when it wants the lead product…….it has to be that way in rare diseases, and I expect as the treatments extend out into rarer cancer treatments.
The deal with HCM is from a different time in AZ’s history. I suspect that if Savo was being offered up today, they would try to take the whole company.
I see HCMs future being a larger China entity and its drugs licensed for use where it is politically difficult for China based organisations to operate. AZ / Lilly etc may need to split their assets into China / non-China (perhaps US/ RoW) entities at some point with cross licensing arrangements if it becomes operationally difficult to be a player in US and China markets.
The deal is AstraZeneca’s second this month after it agreed last week to buy Amolyt Pharma for $1.05 billion to shore up its rare disease portfolio.
The drugmaker will pay $21 per Fusion share, a premium of more than 97% to the U.S.-listed company’s closing price on Monday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/astrazeneca-bets-on-new-cancer-treatments-with-2-billion-fusion-pharma-purchase.html