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RNS to confirm ;
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HBR/significant-gas-discovery-at-tangkulo-indonesia-xrfcedrw14m0o05.html
Huge. Fantastic news. What must that be worth to HBR?
Thanks Kign,
Wonderful news.
atb
From mubadala: https://mubadalaenergy.com/news/mubadala-energy-announces-major-gas-discovery-in-south-andaman-indonesia/
Discovery with potential for over 6 TCF of gas-in-place marks a major development for the Southeast Asia energy landscape
Https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/uaes-mubadala-energy-makes-its-second-big-gas-discovery-in-indonesia-1.1715582799210
"The Tangkulo-1 well encountered 80 meters of gas column in a good quality Oligocene sandstone reservoir confirmed through an extensive data gathering campaign that includes obtaining a full core of 72 meters, wireline logging, sidewall core, pressure and fluid sampling," the company said in a statement.
"Utilizing a new Drill Stem Test (DST) design, the well successfully flowed 47 mmscf/d of excellent gas quality and 1,300 barrels of condensate. Although testing was constrained by testing facilities, the estimated well capacity is 80-100mmscf/d and over 2,000 barrels of condensate."
OPEC Signals Lasting OPEC+ Alliance in Oil Market Management
OPEC is preparing to replace the ‘call on OPEC’ forecast of global demand for the cartel’s crude oil with ‘call on OPEC+ crude’ in its closely-watched monthly oil market report, signaling that it remains committed to the broader OPEC+ alliance to manage supply to the market.
The change in forecasts of the amount of crude OPEC needs to produce for a balanced supply-demand picture on the market is expected to be published in the Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for May, scheduled to be released on May 14, sources close to the matter told Reuters this week.
Demand for crude from the producers that form part of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) – as OPEC+ is officially known – has become more relevant to assessing market balances, according to one of the sources.
OPEC published for the first time an assessment of ‘Demand for DoC crude’ in the April report, alongside the outlook on demand for OPEC crude. From May, it will no longer publish estimates of ‘Demand for OPEC crude’, per Reuters’ sources.
In April, OPEC said that “Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is projected to stand at about 43.2 mb/d in 2024, which is around 0.9 mb/d higher than the estimated level for 2023.”
Demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 is expected to rise to about 44.0 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 800,000 bpd compared to the figure forecast for 2024.
Demand for OPEC crude is set to increase to about 28.5 million bpd this year, up by 1.2 million bpd compared to the estimated level for 2023. Demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 29.0 million bpd, up by 400,000 bpd over the level expected for 2024.
The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC members and 10 non-OPEC producers led by Russia, is now a more powerful force on the market and a key factor in global supply than OPEC was before the alliance was created at the end of 2016, to address the market and price slump of 2015-2016 following the glut in 2014.
OPEC+ holds a 41% share of global oil supply, compared to just 27% for OPEC only as of end-2023 when Angola left the OPEC cartel, per Reuters calculations.
Evidence of the sway OPEC+ now has over the market is the fact that analysts have started to speculate how the next OPEC+ meeting on June 1 will unfold. The alliance is currently withholding around 2.2 million bpd from the market by the end of the first half of this year, and is set to decide in early June how to proceed with the ongoing production cuts into the second half.
Goldman Sachs, for example, expects OPEC+ to stick to its production output reduction agreement at its next meeting, revising an earlier stance that the cartel may partially unwind the cuts.
“While our interpretation of OPEC+ communication is that no final decision has been made, we now expect Saudi crude supply to remain flat at 9 mb/d (mill
CEO increasing already big stake in company
Debt almost removed. 100m $ remaining.
Sensible xxx to protect investment grade in 2025
Major hurdles German and Norway overcome regarding merger
Currently production 172k slightly ahead of guidance
9% Year on Year dividend growth
Zama FEED expected this year with Khan 2 in H2.
Indonesia huge potential with testing and further drilling this year.
Ever improving safety record.
Viking CCS progressing to FID & huge potential with Wintershall projects.
Liquidity of 1.6$ billion
2025 Free Cash Flow marginally improved on 2024
Huge Wintershall Dea upside with 500k production and global expansion.
Shorts significantly reducing
CEO increasing already big stake in company
Debt almost removed. 100m $ remaining.
Sensible xxx to protect investment grade in 2025
Major hurdles German and Norway overcome regarding merger
Currently production 172k slightly ahead of guidance
9% Year on Year dividend growth
Zama FEED expected this year with Khan 2 in H2.
Indonesia huge potential with testing and further drilling this year.
Ever improving safety record.
Viking CCS progressing to FID & huge potential with Wintershall projects.
Liquidity of 1.6$ billion
2025 Free Cash Flow marginally improved on 2024
Huge Wintershall Dea upside with 500k production and global expansion.
Quite a few things to like in the update.
Debt is almost gone which is very rare for an oil company. Wintershall deal rubber stamped by Germany and Norway should be a shoe in. Wintershall boards announced stepping down which shows their certainty of the deal.
Still talking about 500k production so Winteshall must be increasing theirs. Next year much more profitable with less capex. Our production slightly above guidance which is always good. Also some very good hedges in the future..
Investment grade will be huge and FT 100 should represent some stability.
Indonesia, Tangkulo being tested which sounds promising and Layaran 2 being drilled soon. Could be a hughe new frontier....
No real news in Zama and personally I’m have "cash in and move on thoughts".
Plenty of small discoveries/ exploration in North Sea and Norway which is our bread and butter at present.
The only think I am concerned about it where the SP goes with all the new shares. I know the market cap, investment grade and extra production but we have some major sellers looking to off load nearly 40% of the company as we did before who by the sounds of it don’t want to hang around…We shall see. Perhaps when the dust settles we have more new ii who want in on the deal.
Also worth remembering we paid a heafty price to get this deal done and beaqt the big boys. I still wonder why we managed ??
All in all things look great and with a fair wind we should do well. We shall see.
Please share any thoughts positive and negative.....
Enjoy The Sunshine......
NSS
Always excellent to note, still even further reductions in HBR Short positions as evident once again here today, now this being the FIFTH consecutive/back to back rapid reduction by GLG Partners LP during the months of April and May (3, 4, 5, 16, April 2024 and now also on 09 May 2024).
Let the trend be your friend!
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BMBVGQ36/
Post from ADVFN today:
Onlylongterm910 May '24 - 09:55 - 4646 of 4646
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Proactive Investors 09 May 2024
Harbour Energy ‘on-track’ to complete transformational Wintershall deal later this year
Harbour Energy PLC (LSE:HBR) told investors it is on track to complete its transformational acquisition of Wintershall in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The $11.2 billion deal was announced in December and will, when completed, add a catalogue of assets in Norway, Germany, Denmark, Argentina, Mexico, Egypt, Libya and Algeria.
It will create “one of the world’s largest and most geographically diverse” independent oil and gas companies – with a combined production profile of over 500,000 barrels per day.
Significantly for Harbour, which is the largest North Sea independent, it delivers a substantial diversification and eases exposure to the UK’s currently high fiscal regime for oil and gas.
Today’s trading update confirmed Harbour was producing 172,000 barrels oil equivalent per day in the first quarter of 2024. Its operating costs averaged $18 per barrel.
The company estimated $900 million of revenue for the quarter, after hedging for UK prices of $83 per barrel of oil and 69p per therm for gas.
It maintained guidance for capital spending, with first-quarter capex seen at $250 million and full-year spend expected to reach $1.2 billion.
Net debt halved compared to this time last year, reducing to $100 million at the end of March.
Harbour is to pay a final 13 cents per share dividend for 2023, which the company noted was inline with its previously stated plan to payout $200 million for the year. The payment will be paid on 22 May.
In terms of the Wintershall countdown, Harbour noted that it had made significant progress on the various workstreams and approvals required to complete within its timeline.
Notably, it confirmed that it had executed necessary hedging (predominantly for oil) for the anticipated 2025 and 2026 production, in order to de-risk near-term cash flow.
“During the first quarter, we continued to deliver safe and responsible operations, maximize the value of our UK production base and advance our organic growth projects,” Harbour chief executive Linda Cook said in a statement.
“At the same time, we made significant progress towards completion of the Wintershall Dea acquisition which will transform our portfolio and capital structure and support enhanced and sustainable shareholder returns."
Also, UK Gas prices on the up.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13401077/amp/MARKET-REPORT-North-Sea-giant-Harbour-closes-9bn-German-deal.html
North Sea giant Harbour closes in on £9bn German deal
British companies, one by one, are being plucked off the London stock market by foreign predators.
But two deals suggest the siege is not all one-way traffic.
North Sea producer Harbour Energy is closing in on a near-£9billion takeover in a swoop on most of the oil and gas assets owned by Germany’s Wintershall Dea.
The acquisition, which was announced in December, has now been approved by Germany and Norway and should be completed in the final three months of 2024.
Harbour also said it expects production to double after the deal, making it a major global player.
NSS
35% signed up before issuing the prospectus is pretty high. PIs and most II investors have not yet had the opportunity to vote to support the deal
"IMHO, we should very easily reach £5+ by Q4 if everything goes as planned/scheduled, GLA."
Fully agree.
Well you can’t test nothing so it’s a discovery of sorts at the very least.
Time will tell whether it’s commercial or not.
HBR’s investor presentation clearly states a so far 69p/them price for the hedged gas price.
Post from ADVFN today:
TheComposer10 May '24 - 08:39 - 4645 of 4645 Edit
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Excellent Investor Presentation (May 2024) by HBR team clearly highlighting both the Outstanding progress made and enormous potential ahead here going forward:
https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/swvfapx4/harbour-energy-plc-investor-presentation-may-2024.pdf
IMHO, we should very easily reach £5+ by Q4 if everything goes as planned/scheduled, GLA.
Thanks Stevo.
The one thing that did surprise me is they still only have 35% signed up to support the deal.
I also like the fact they are testing the Wlidcat… Could be really good news…!!!… or.. lol
For Harbour Energy/Wintershall Dea the future clearly is extremely bright:
§ Investments at Harbour's operated UK hubs progressed including drilling at Callanish F6 (Greater Britannia Area), and the Talbot development (J-Area) which remains on track to start production around year-end
§ International growth opportunities advanced with potential for material reserve additions
- Mexico: Zama FEED due to commence shortly with contractor bids being evaluated; appraisal of the 2023 Kan oil discovery scheduled for H2 2024
- Indonesia: Further momentum with the Andaman Sea exploration campaign including at Tangkulo (South Andaman, Harbour 20 per cent) where testing is underway. Following completion of operations at Tangkulo, the rig will move to the final location in the current campaign to appraise the significant 2023 Layaran discovery (South Andaman)
- Norway: Small oil discovery at Ringhorne North (Harbour 15 per cent), close to existing infrastructure
§ Continued momentum on Harbour's UK CCS projects including good progress in the FEED phase for the Harbour-led Viking project
§ Net debt reduced to $0.1 billion at end of March 2024 (YE 2023: $0.2 billion), after c.$60 million of financing and other fees associated with the Wintershall DEA acquisition; Harbour's RBL debt facility remains undrawn
Acquisition of Wintershall Dea Asset Portfolio on track to complete in Q4 2024
Harbour has made significant progress on the various workstreams and approvals required to complete the acquisition of the Wintershall Dea asset portfolio (the "Acquisition").
§ All regulatory, anti-trust and foreign direct investment approvals required for completion continue to progress as planned
Harbour continues to expect to complete the Acquisition during Q4 2024.
NSS
I believe today was more about the progression of the WD acquisition and the approval by the German regulator, which was a potential stumbling block.
The FCF in Q1 was $300m before $200m of tax payment and so slightly ahead of the annual forecast of $1.1b FCF before $1b tax payment. The realised price for gas detailed in the presentation was 69p per therm and so a typo in the announcement as highlighted by Londoner. Updated Forecast for 2024 of small FCF/debt reduction after $200m dividend is consistent with prior announcements.
Increase in FCF in 2025 to approx $500m due solely to lower CAPEX. Again as previously announced.
Hi Gents,
As our regular financial gurus I was wondering if either of you would be so kind as to share your thoughts on todays financial news. Greatly apprechiated.
Many thanks
NSS
Londoner
I has the same thought re average realised gas prices. It must be a typo as the average gas price has been on average above the hedge price for 2024 and I don’t think has been as low at 49p per therm. My gut feel is around 70-75p per therm would be average for Q1
I
Playing with the pros with a non existent strike rate is probably i would have thought a bit embarrassing
But hey heres hoping 🤣
I like playing with the pros ;)
I agree. The German approval is significant, still a long way to go...
The debt reduction is a nice touch.
Bonker99.. Don’t feed the fish/donkey
Decent update pretty much as expected. Great news on Germany and the deal at large. And I like the fact they are testing.. They must have found something.. We shall see…
Bonker99.. Don’t feed the fish….