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'Following stronger than anticipated November and December trading, despite lockdown measures, H&T expects the full-year profit before tax to be ahead of market expectations.'
Pledge book has now stopped reducing which is good.
Net cash is up 4M over the two months since the Nov trading update.
Lots of potential for HT to recovery quickly over the next year.
Way better than I expected, I hope to see a good SP recovery from here
Numis reiterate buy on H&T, with target price of 410p
like how this moving , different to ggp which rns expected Thursday and was down around 6% this morning ,starting to move back up some
In the 25/1/21 trading update the company said they “expect an outcome within previous guidance” with respect to the FCA review but for the life of me I cannot find anywhere in their statements they provide even a ball park figure of any redress they may owe. Over the 6 year period under review they have made 11 million in revenue so could it be possible they have to repay all of that? If anyone has any sources I would appreciate it if you could share. I’ve been watching this share for ages now and really want to buy in its just this review is really putting me off. Thanks.
I have asked and they just refer back to the Nov 2019 announcement as the previous guidance (even though this is not at all clear what the guidance actually is!). I may be being naive, but I took the CFO, who has been with the firm a long time, buying a couple of times late last year as a sign that they believe it will be manageable (which is also what they said at the time).
In an interview just after the announcement, JN (the outgoing CEO) seemed very surprised that there was an issue at all. H&T has only been mentioned on debt camel once or twice since 2019. Other than some initial costs they are not planning on putting any provisions into last years accounts for this . I get the impression that we will not hear for a while yet.
Without the review hanging over it I am sure that the sp would be higher. I guess you could hedge your bets, get some now and then top up later (probably at a higher price) once things are more clear.
To Plod /
To the question "In the 25/1/21 trading update the company said they “expect an outcome within previous guidance” with respect to the FCA review but for the life of me I cannot find anywhere in their statements they provide even a ball park figure of any redress they may owe. Over the 6 year period under review they have made 11 million in revenue so could it be possible they have to repay all of that? If anyone has any sources I would appreciate it if you could share. I’ve been watching this share for ages now and really want to buy in its just this review is really putting me off. Thanks."
From March 2020 - Simon Thompson - Investor's Chronicle - "...It’s worth flagging up that 17 per cent of H&T’s personal loan book of £16.6m consists of near prime loans and only 10 per cent is high-cost short-term credit (HCSTC) unsecured loans, all of which will mature by the year-end. H&T continues to work closely with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) following a regulatory review of certain aspects and files of the HCSTC business."
For further details, you may need to go back to each respective financial year to determine the HCSTC. GL
Further review -
- Although limited overseas hols - forex wise - beneficiaries of the demise of Thomas Cook, will include HAT and RFX.
- Abermarle and Bond's closure = less competition = fortifies HAT's no.1 position as UK's no.1 pawnbroker.
- Small independent pawnbrokers must have had a hard time during covid / potential closures.
- Shops coming to rent review will surely be negotiated downwards = reduced rental expense.
Overall, post covid, IMO HAT will come out stronger than they went in furthering their market leading position and with the perfect macro environment for them to thrive.
Only watching here also, holding RFX from 138p and not too concerned about the speed of recent gains made. Half wondering whether HAT will stage a similar bounce in the next few months as we open up and people go out and spend more.
I have little doubt that this will head to 400p+ circa 12 months.
- Resolution of the FCA investigation on the small portfolio of high interest loans that HAT were involved in for 2019 and previous years should give the market much more certainty. I'd expect any "fines" to be small.
- More presence given TO of The Money Shop outlets.
- Forex anticipated to increase with foreign holidays (Hays does not provide forex + Thomas Cook closed = less competitors).
- Gold prices - holding up.
- Rent renewal for outlets with lease renewal - reduction across portfolio of shops.
- Most recent TU stated "exceed expectations"
- End of lockdown = more customers seeking to spend = higher increase of demand for their jewellery (which was closed during lockdown) + pawn services.
Enjoy dividends whilst you wait for a recovery.