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The reason for the fall seems to be JP Morgan downgrading from overweight to neutral reducing target to £7.50 from £8.10, citing, With the risk that UK consumer spending will deteriorate in the months and years ahead, it is difficult to see a positive catalyst on the horizon, However press does not seem to highlight today Barclays Capital maintain outperform @£7.80 and Beaufort maintains as a buy. would think that £7.50 - £7.80 is a fair price at the moment. Lots of 400 trades this morning, in and out manipulating the initial price down by about 5.5%. I wonder who was behind that?
As I said, this share can be pants at times..........this time it was probably Rooney Annand pharting haha
however I cannot find any reason for the big fall?
Looking beyond today’s results, we note the following factors: - Since 2004 Revenue grew from £552m to £2,216.50m, an average growth of 11.3%. Net income rose from £52m to £151.7m. Net Cash profit rose from £68m to £299.2m. Total Assets rose from £1,254m to £5,598m, with total liabilities increased from £600.7m to £3,654m. However, EPS fell from 80.2 pence to 49 pence, thanks to increasing share count! Finally, dividends per share remain ROUGHLY unchanged during the period at 32 pence. This is despite dividends rising from £22m to £101m. On Greene King Cash Position Since 2014, Greene King includes a liquidity facility loan of £157.5m in cash and cash equivalent, that facility is REPAYABLE ON DEMAND. Therefore, it doesn’t belong in that category!! By excluding it, the cash balance is £285.5m. On Greene King Debt mountain Debt is high, but in relation to properties, it accounts for 65% of total properties. On Greene King, Operating Lease Since the acquisition of Spirit Pubs, Greene King total operating lease went from £26m to over £1,353m in a year. This will lead to higher rental costs for the future. On Greene King’s share price On balance, the company is fairly valued, given that it will experience some cost pressures. A credible entry point for the shares would be £6.20-£6.30 per share price if operational performance continues to improve. However, a financial crisis or an economic recession in the UK would be damaging to its share price. For detailed analysis, click http://bit.ly/2s6iQZ2
I hope you're correct stockplay......I'm still in!
Also the most important - the last two or three times that we had a trading update/results RNS the price went sharply down and stayed down. This time however, after the initial dip there was heavy buying that brought the price back up. This might not mean much, but it could be an indicator of a turning point... In any way, at this price the risk/reward ratio is quite good for buyers/holders
I know what you mean huwie as the SP has not been doing well last year. This might not be an exciting share, but it is a solid company with good cashflow. The dividend policy is also very good here, so even with a flat SP you can get good returns from the dividends.
Encouraging words stockplay BUT.......I live I GK country, drink their beer and bought shares last November. It's one of the most frustrating shares I have, up and down all the time and it doesnt help when the chairman insists on talking about challenging times ahead......consistently in my opinion. Hmmmm
The results look solid to me and the dip in the SP looks like an excellent buying opportunity. That, said I bought a few this morning, back above 700 soon - GLA!
Obviously the prospect of a coalition government is not going to sell many pub meals and people will stop going out and drinking. Either that, or market manipulation. There was a buying opportunity early on, managed to get in at 6.92 so all is not lost. Just wait for the next nit of bad news and we will be back again. Cant believe I sold this out at 7.50 to 7.60 and thought that I had sold myself short. Good luck everyone. Just remember ,the most you can lose is everything.
.. almost 4%
For the record, The SP tonight, despite closing down on the day is actually outside and positively floating above and up from the year+ long channel decline (for the moment that is). This getting interesting. Very interesting.
Needed the spending money for a holiday, the purchase of some Wonalot and a Jack Russell. If there is a breakout to come then seems pretty slow and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the derampers are out in force in the lead up to divi qualification. Still learned that there is a lot more to this than Hungry Horse - not that Hungry Horse is an issue for anybody other than snobs. Staff get a bigger discount than shareholders and some shares at an even lower rate than I did. Good luck to anybody still holiding. I'll come back if I can but I'm okay if I am frozen out.
For over a year and a quarter the SP has been on a relentless jiggly downward spiral. (Long term holders don't need to be reminded of that - they know). But is it now at yet another decisive crossroads once again? It either turns soon from here and continues its downward longer term trajectory or as the price action indicates it appears to be on the cusp of breaking out from that long bear grip. Roughly, by eye alone, I can make out resistance levels at surprisingly convenient levels: - 700-705-710-715-720-725 It closed at just over 700 at 701p Good, it's broken 700p (just like many times before but to no avail) that could mean it's ready to tackle the next resistance level - 705p) Intrestingly during Friday's Intraday price action, it spiked up to 705p-ish but no further. If it steadily can take out one resistance level after another it could be a portentous indication that it's intent on breaking out. But on every other occasion over the the past full year and a bit, it's been hauled back by the bears. If it can continue steady progress at this juncture it could be that long awaited breakout. If it falls back in the coming days then it's just a continuation of the longer term bear descent until the true floor is found. But right now no one can accuse you of undue optimism if you think it's breaking out of that long decline because at the moment it is on the cusp of breaking that channel - right on the edge of it, it is. Which is it to be ???
The pub trade should come back strongly as this summers Brexit story unfolds.
for Carbeth Inn by Greeneking as you would expect for a pub mentioned in Walter Scottt's Robb Roy. A hold for you drinftking and not a buy. You sure you are not being notgreedy. Nice grayling for lunch so got it all covered.
"Pubs and small businesses will receive extra help with their business rates bill, the chancellor has announced. Every pub with a rateable value of less than £100,000 will receive a discount of £1,000 in 2017, a move that affects 90% of all pubs, Philip Hammond said." from BBC news
You mention the dividend being nice. Goldman has Greene King on its conviction but list. Though, I still haven't bought any. I'v got Diageo & Unilever stock amongst my other 30 holdings. Personally I'd wait 12mths till dust settles before buying. Hammond has said he will give a loan to pubs worth less than £100k in London. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/smallbusiness/article-4275972/Pub-sell-22-500-pints-cover-business-rates-hike.html
UK government has just announced business rates are to rise. Think there playing catchup since 2007. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/15/nhs-hit-crippling-business-rates-riseanalysis-finds/amp/
Liked the divi so looked carefully at an intrinsic valuation. Not impressed : 1. Where is the growth going to come? Lfl just over 1% in main pub company but HH issues. Post Brexit this could worsen. 2. Brands business ( ~ 11% of total) down -4%+ & likely to accelerate as far more interesting craft beers around 3 Spirit acquisition synergies now being offset by minimum wage / business rate hikes 4 high actual debt & high debt cost averaging 6% ( ouch!) Doubt these shares are worth £6.50 and more downside risk than ups1de unfortunately. Pity as I liked the yield. Any counter to highlight what I'm missing ?
Now got my booklet of 20% shareholder discount vouchers and they are a perk worth somebody like me having. Used to get discount vouchers from thorntons when they were listed but there were a lot of restrictions on their usage like not available on 3 for 2 or other discounted merachandise. No restrictions on greenkings and though the booklet has 6 months of expired vouchers from Sept '16 to February '17 for a new shareholder like me, I have valid vouchers for up until the end of August this year. I now have a variety of elderly or sick relatives who have had to give up driving and the taxiing for long distances, house cleaning, cooking and dishwashing ( no dishwasher known to man can handle the pots and oven trays) on the same day was becoming a bit of a chore for me so no worries now. LOL Need to buy some tcg for the holiday discounts or mebbes not.
Took some profit today and yesterday while up Glenashdale (prettier than Cheddar Gorge) but holding on to some to qualify for the vouchers. Thanks will try the Old English Inns if I am allowed across the Scottish border again in October.
The perks are handy. One gets two vouchers a month in a booklet each allowing a 20% discount on food and drink. GK own also Old English Inns
I posted below of expectations of the floor being between 650p and 600p I've bought my first tranche at 651.odd Good enough even though I'm leaning to it falling further in the short term. Just as well I buy in modest amounts building my holding up to the budgeted final stake when appropriate. Bought this for two reasons only. Diversification and the yield. Been tracking it since early last summer. So not quite as impulse a buy as might seem.