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I cant remember either of those Tom .
Can you find the posts ?
Thanks
SS
Stop ducking and diving CCC.
"At 55k production the share price should be around £5. At 110k you can double it. As for the reserves we dont know the true amount of oil in Shaikan. GKP going to £17 - £25 a share may be unlikely but its not impossible."
147king - no £17-25 is basically impossible, unless you change the PSC itself or oil goes to a unrealistic price (~$500). Even if you find another 1 billion barrels of oil in the group here it will never go to £17 a share. We already have more oil than we can probably produce in the PSC timeline.
surreyscot, I assume you were aware of the track record of the person carrying out the analysis, if not the methodology used to produce them.
Is there any chance you can get permission from the originator to post the details of how those figures were arrived at?
If not, then could you clarify two simple points?
1 What P values do those two figures represent? Without knowing that, the figures are open to misuse and misinterpretation.
2 Was the data used obtained solely from the CPR at the time?
I think those are reasonable questions given that those numbers you quoted are circa an order of magnitude higher than the current price.
At 55k production the share price should be around £5. At 110k you can double it. As for the reserves we dont know the true amount of oil in Shaikan. GKP going to £17 - £25 a share may be unlikely but its not impossible.
At 55k production the share price should be around £5. At 110k you can double it. As for the reserves we dont know the true amount of oil in Shaikan. GKP going to £17 - £25 a share may be unlikely but its not impossible.
Thanks for the reminder Tom.
LOL
Surreyscot, didn’t you tell us recently that you don’t post on Advfn? You have always maintained that you’ve been in it from the beginning and never sold a single one?
Not the most honest chap are you.
By all means ss.
My GKP investment details have been well documented and explained.
It is interesting to note you sold a majority of your holding due to what the markets/city thought at the time, i guess this was before the Court case decision 2013, i find it a little strange that you knock anyone selling or trading at present as the market sentiment is a lot more wiser and informed to risk and reward than it was at the time of your sell, i would also add pre 2013, gulf was still in the headlines of being brought out hype, where as today there is zero interest or media attention.
I can only take your trading figures at face value , so i can assume your in profit, i know many other investors are not in this position and should be allowed to voice their frustration and concerns without the attacks from those who are more fortunate.
My position is slightly more opposite to yours, where as i sold at a lost, but rebuilt the capital from other investments, before reinvesting back in gulf, but also traded a couple of times since.
Now your other point, i have never met with BB or OM63, i have spoken to OM63 by phone, you all knew we exchanged a throw away number posted on this board nearly 2 years ago, it was only the one call and a couple of text messages since, i have never spoken to Broadford Bay, your obsession with those named has got the better of you and you clearly think we are all part of a group to destroy the companies sentiment, if you strip aside all the chest beating on all sides, you will in my opinion see most of the posts are addressing the 2 main subjects of field issues/delays or unanswered field concerns, the other of which your quite clearly involved in, is the message that the company is sold or being sold at vast more value than it is today, without any evidence or rational reasoning, currently i support both OM63 and BB with these 2 subjects and if you used the city sentiment for your sell, you can quite easily see that the city today dose not support your dreams of sold soon anytime in the near future, your guild is the share price.
In any case i will get involved with who i want and when i want as it is of no concern to anyone else.
" On retrospect I notice you still havent answered my questions of a few weeks ago either.
Yes i did surrey, i said i was not going too, that means i am not going too.
Your calculation is irrelevant and wildly out of sorts to current value.
*why (not while)
Thanks R2R but I asked CCC.
"(1) explain exactly what the "alleged " gas issue is"
There's no 'gas issue' in the sense that it can't be technically dealt with. There's an issue with the economics associated with dealing with the gas. They have to deal with the gas to go well beyond 55k. You've previously admitted you're not qualified to comment on financial issues and this is likely while you struggle with this point. It's a question of achieving adequate financial return for the risk.
"(3) Explain why you disagree with my sale price for GKP of £17 -25. Give your calculations."
Personally I can't see why CCC should even bother spending time countering such fanciful expectations. However, part of the reason lies in your point (1).
Thanks R2R but I asked CCC.
A Gas Management Plan is not a "gas Issue" it is a normal part of Industry Business.
A draft FDP is not an issue its a normal part of Industry business. The plan has to be agreed and approved by all parties.
CCC we are waiting!
SS I can help out with some of those:
(1) explain exactly what the "alleged " gas issue is
It's not alleged, its been stated many times that any further development is subject to a gas management plan. It's also a known fact that the MNR / KRG do not allow production above 55kbopd without this. I wouldn't call it a huge issue as I personally am happy sitting at 55k and making a heap of cash from the cost pool recovery.
(2) Explain the (alleged) issue with the FDP
There isnt an approved FDP? Thats the issue? Tied in with point number 1
(3) Explain why you disagree with my sale price for GKP of £17 -25. Give your calculations.
Impossible. Dont need calculations to work that one out. To get to that value you'd need an oil price of $500+ per bbl (based on flat 55k/d production). Or you'd need someone to come in at $100+ oil and pay an undiscounted price for all of the 2P reserves....? If you really want a breakdown of why £17+ a share is impossible I can put one together.
On retrospect I notice you still havent answered my questions of a few weeks ago either.
(1) explain exactly what the "alleged " gas issue is
(2) Explain the (alleged) issue with the FDP
(3) Explain why you disagree with my sale price for GKP of £17 -25. Give your calculations.
Many thanks
SS