Member Info for RagstoRich

True, but I cant see how management wouldn't see that coming. The old board made many bad decisions, but I cant help feel that this new one is doing even worse. Its very short term focused which could end badly.

I hope you and anyone else in here is made whole if your still in. And I hope this company turns itself around.

Hi LOTM, don't take this personally (and thank you for single-handedly keeping this board updated, its the only reason I occasionally come back to see how things are going). But I have to say "I told you so" regarding the cash stressed position this company looks to be heading towards.

Even IF production was within guidance, this would still be the issue. Look at Egypt, facing one of the biggest macroeconomic challenges in recent history, they are not going to pay because they CANNOT pay.

Regarding your comment about "if the board could rewind 3 months they would likely have delayed the dividend". What has changed? Why did they pay out that amount of cash when it was clear Egypt is in a financial black hole and not likely to pay?

LOTM do you think they will spend time / money contesting it? I think they will just accept the $50mln SNE payment wont come. There is no way for Senegal to get more money out of them easily, hence the lack of share price movement. People had already written off the SNE payment

LOTM - I dont disagree with you, but by investing in CNE you are effectively betting on Egypt.

Even if the assets make money, CNE dont get paid. Egypt is in a bad way financially and has hardly any USD. With the current situation in the ME, things could get worse, especially now that Israel gas has been shut off to Egypt and Egypt may have to reduce its LNG exports (a major source of USD for them).

Good luck.....

And I dont disagree with some of your comments, the previous board were horrific, and as you say spent like mad.

BUT - I maintain that the NewMed deal was a HECK of a deal compared to where this company is now. I'd happily sell Egypt on the "cheap" (if its worth anything...) and get £2.75 !

Half of the "Cash" is IOUs from a country that is the worst off outside Venezuela globally.

Egyptian bonds will also give you a great return, probably with less risk!

There must be a high % chance that this company will start to financially struggle now that its income stream is purely Catcher & Kraken payments, and the CAPEX continues to be ploughed into assets which dont pay you in Egypt....

The company is currently valued at £255mil, which is probably what the assets,£80M of cash to be paid out, buy-back cash £8M and the working cash in the Egypt business & the difference between receivables & payables is worth.....

You would have to claim that to be worth £500mil + to get the lost value back.

If Egypt continue not to pay, where does that leave the company in 1-2 years?

Good luck

I've been glancing now and again at this board after selling out a while back. But had to log back in to correct this.

Anyone who has held since £2.17 has made a large loss

The NewMed deal (£2.75) was massively more valuable than where the company is now. trying to argue anything else is madness.

Here is a simplified breakdown below. I dont follow LOTM-13's calculations at all. Lets show the amount of shares, share price and the divi values in £ to make it simple:

NM offer:

315M shares in issue, £2.75 per share = £866M value

Pre-dividend value:

315M shares in issue, £2.18 per share = £687M value

Post divi value (now):

Dividend payout: £362M

143M shares in issue, £1.76 per share = 251M

So you have:

Total delivered value to date: £613M (div + current SP)

NewMed deal: £866M

Thus there has been £253M of value destruction. A colossal amount!!

To all those who bad mouthed the newmed deal as a “bad deal” - this is what you have voted for, enjoy!

I’m assuming this is a sarcastic post… !

In that case you need to factor in the multiple dividends you will have received in those 10 years.

John, if you bought in Jan23 then the $1billion was already in the market capital (and this share price).

If you bought just prior to the India award, the share price rose 50-60% (from memory), that is how you would have received value.

You don’t make money on a share from the company moving money from its cash balance to shareholders as dividends. The company is devalued by the same amount as the dividend.

I’ve read all the information. And this is very different to post Senegal dividend (the India money was returned after that).

This time the company has the Senegal payment and North Sea payments, which I agree will increase the share price a bit, but I think they are already priced in (and I think the Senegal payment IS basically the £100mi additional divi payment).

Look at the Egypt operations, they require a huge amount of CAPEX, they are non operated, they are not making any money, the countries financial condition is deteriorating (I highly recommend investigating that), I predict the receivable position to worsted, look at all companies who have managed to improve it, to do so they needed massive increases in investment and/or large bonus payments be made to Egypt.

I dont follow you Kioto.... Why would the stock go back up to the same MCAP as pre dividend? The company has 0 cash flow positive assets, therefore no way of creating this type of value, especially if any free cash is to be returned as future dividends.

This is not a 51% ROI.... all else equal the dividend will make or lose you no money, it will only move your money around.

Where are all those who believed the hedge funds rubbish about £3+ a share and voted down a £625m dividend and £2.75 share price? Kite lake (one of those funds) has sold 5% of its holding.

How there is hardly any discontent among all of you amazes me…..

Kite Lake selling down 5% of their holding.... says everything

Yes

LOTM - I've been trying to figure this out too, but I assume the treasury shares will receiver the dividend too, which should stop any value loss linked to SP? I'm not sure what happens to this money but I'm guessing its paid back to the company?

Agree its unusual that they didn't wait until post divi to start the buy back, it would have been much cleaner and I think the support will probably be needed more then than now!

I also question how much holding the shares in Treasury actually does, instead of destroying the shares. It just reduced liquidity slightly but doesn't actually do that much for the share price (same MCAP, same no of shares).

I'm not an investment Guru, but I do my research on the companies I invest in, build economic models for them and try to understand the risks associated with them.

To be honest, right now I have no advice. The economy is in the most difficult position and its nearly impossible to tell what is going to happen. This is one reason i'm so against this company having all eggs in the Egypt basket (a country with some of the worst financial issues globally - good luck getting receivables down)

Nearly all of my portfolio is in money markets or safe haven assets right now. Can I ask why harbour? Genuine question.

Corrupt ??, we’ll at least you will be able to sleep knowing that you’ve taken a 35% hit in value but avoided this apparent corruption.

Unsure how well you will do in stocks if your aim isn’t making money