Member Info for RagstoRich

Yes, Simon as temporary chair. Plus 3 others (although it now looks like they are open to conceding a seat to the activist shareholders). So that is 3 people who would remain from the 9 (one of them being temporary).

If your against the deal I'm curious to hear what your aim is?

Do you believe the 400p valuation?
Do you want a smaller dividend than the merger would deliver?

Genuine question, I know your against the BOD, but the NewMed deal replaces nearly all of them....

Of course they have to sign an NDA, or else the information would have to be made public. You cant show one group of people something and not everyone else so the NDA will protect against that.....

I'm also out today. I was excited about the NewMed deal (as I'm currently looking for longer term lower risk investments with a dividend), but I'm worried that Palliser will do what hedge funds do and pump this price up based on incorrect data later to find that things are worth less than they said. The RNS today proves that is the case.

Even if £3 is possible there is a HUGE amount of risk, all outside of the control of the company (oil price, first oil with Woodside Sangomar and improving Egypt which wont be delivered for some time). Combine that with the fact you will get $120 million less of a dividend dont the Palliser route vs NewMed and the choice is clear for me....

I say watch what you wish for. I want the largest payout possible then two own a small part of one of the best assets in the world and a planned doubling of gas production in the next few year. Instead I see a bunch of short term hedge funds trying to force a smaller dividend and keeping an aging Egypt asset with very limited upside.

The board with newmed is a new board (with 4 directors from the current board - only 2 more than with what Palliser are proposing), only James Smith is left as CFO.

Either way results in new leadership, but one way has better assets and a larger dividend.

Grumpus, the merger will return basically all cash on the books to shareholders, so I'm confused as to why you are against it?

So Palliser are rumoured to be converting their derivative position to real shares?

Anyone with a better understanding of derivatives - could you please tell me how this works. I assume Palliser would have had to stump up a large amount of cash for real shares whereas before they held a contract which will have cost them very little (and essentially provided a load of leverage). Now they are on a 1-to-£2.46 basis like the rest of us?

a) you havent discounted any of your numbers
b) Egypt is not worth that on any broker notes.....so where does £1.71 come from?
c) you've not included any G&A cost or work program obligations (e.g. well in Mexico) which will take a massive chunk off the final value

Sorry it's the hedge funds smoking something not you... it's their job to come up with stupid numbers. Does anyone actually think this is worth anything near £4?!

400p? what are you smoking.

293p is what the brokers value our NAV at (Peel Hunt), so yes the deal is still undervaluing us if you use that, however, a break-up exposes Capricorn to all sorts of costs and a timeline that will be messy. It also has no upside compared to a 10% stake in NewMed. A breakup also has a higher risk profile, since the kickers aren't 100% guaranteed.

$620million divi and 315 million shares, so depending on what exchange rate you use it is ~£1.78 in dividend alone.

Also getting to shares in the new merge co at a discount (one which looks highly attractive as an investment)

Re: Capricorn: yes I agree I dont like Egypt, but in terms of their cash flow going forward they have a huge amount to come as part of their deals on Catcher, Kraken and Senegal - £100's of millions through 2023 & 24. That is cash flow Tullow could really do with.....

But we have no production in any of them? The windfall tax is only on UK production, it is not on global corporate profit.

Re: why there has been a loss this year, it is because over half a billion was returned to shareholders this year....

Sheeeesh

And maybe Senegal (fingers crossed) from the Woodside deal

Asia and India (and south America)?

Income is from Egypt and the UK (via the Waldorf deal) for Capricorn?

The markets are pricing in a recession, which is my opinion is guaranteed. The question is, how much does it affect oil price.

Grumpus - I rest my case. You could get your fingers burnt jumping from CNE to Tullow....

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/stifel-upgrades-capricorn-energy-to-buy-9xlr1d1d8u4ahh9.html

Stifel - the company who wrote the damming piece on the merger......

Grumpus, it really is not that simple.

Do you think the hedge funds are buying into CNE for no reason? Kite Lake came out against the deal, but as far as I can see, they bought in after the deal?

This isn't a simple case of ratios based on the 3.8 announced. There is only £10million difference or so between the MCAPS now, this deal will be rehashed if this gap doesn't close. Or another deal announced. Tullow are still a high risk company, massive debt and all their eggs in one basket. TBH I'd rather be on this side of the deal than theirs.

If only the markets were as simple as you are making them out to be....

That $86 per bbl includes the far lower value bbls from Gabon. The 4k will help but it wont touch the sides really. But yes they do have a small exposure to oil price - the size of which is reflected in the shareprice (which has hardly moved at all with oil price).

The big game changer for Tullow is when the hedging starts to roll off next year, if oil price is still high they will become a cash machine. If, oil is still high....

The game changer for Tullow is when the