Member Info for RagstoRich

This is exactly why the CNE share price has been going up. CNE have ~$700MM in cash. $100MM payment next year coming from SNE sale, $150MM cash coming from the Kraken and Catcher sales in the next 2 years. CNE actually have more FCF over the next 2 years than Tullow does, even though they have no real assets (bar Egypt).

Buying CNE now gives you Egypt for free + some cash coming in over the next two years with 0 risk.

At the amount of negativity on here. We have two companies with big problems, the merger should hopefully solve both of these:

Tullow: Massively in debt, hedged oil at $70 means they are not benefiting from the current oil price and cannot afford to invest in their massive Ghana asset(s).

Capricorn: Loads of cash, no real assets to speak of (Egypt is tiny value). Impossible to buy quality producing assets at this price (who would sell these?).

The merger gives Capricorn the assets it is missing (which should make a tonne of cash if oil stays high into 2023-24, and it helps Tullow pay down its debt and be far less leveraged. Also it should mean the combined entity could renegotiate their debt at a much cheaper cost (based on being far less leveraged).

The think is, Capricorn was undervalued, so the merger based on 3.8 Tullow shares per Capricorn shares is seen as cheap. Thats why the share price is going up, either investors thing the deal will be re-hashed, or they think someone will pay more for CNE....

Personally, I think the deal lives or dies based on oil price at the end of the year. If its high - great deal for CNE, if its lower (~$70), horrific deal for CNE.

But CNE dont really have any assets? So what is the value increase to £2.60 based on?

We have agreed to a deal worth 3.8 Tullow shares per Capricorn, so £2.60 value makes no sense unless the Tullow share price moves up......

Must be something going on, or the market thinks the deal wont happen?

CNE volume has been pretty large....

And re: the debt - CNE doesnt bring a huge amount of cash flow from production with it (check the entitlement production from Egypt - tiny). But what it does bring is a lump of cash to deleverage the combined entity INSTANTLY and also cash large lumps of cash in the future from kickers off the SNE, Catcher and Kraken sales - these are ($100's of millions).

The biggest fact is that post completion, next year the debt (which is massively expensive due to the situation of Tullow when it was arrange ) can be renegotiated to be much much cheaper. Saving $$$$ on interest. That combined with the hedging phasing out paints a very positive picture ahead.

What a ridiculous post Oil (quoted below). Since 1997 CNE has returned BILLIONS to shareholders. If had invested in CNE back in 1997 you would be very wealthy indeed. You cant compare the share price over a span of 25 years with multiple share consolidations, multiple billion $ dividend returns etc.....

"For all those of you who say CNE is a wonderful company and TLW made a hugely positive move merging with it…
May 1997 Capricorn sp was 6,500
May 2022 (25 years later) sp is 199."

Did you find a link between Rothschild and Davy? I cant seem to find any

part*

This is exactly park of what I'm trying to research, there is some divide between the major shareholders for whatever reason.

Think I figure it out, Turkiye Bankasi recently bought a stake which doesnt seem to appear anywhere online, correct me if this looks incorrect:

Bilgin Grup Dogal Gaz AS 62,523,017 22.50%
TURKIYE IS BANKASI A.S. 53,419,883 19.19%
Daax Corp FZE 46,338,622 16.70%
Davy Global Fund Management Ltd. 39,419,883 14.20%
Nathaniel Rothschild 21,214,583 7.62%

Hi all,

Not a holder, but I'm wondering if anyone has a link to or could post an up-to-date list of the top 5 shareholders in Genel along with their % holdings ? There seems to be many different answers to this on google....
Thanks
R2R

Dividends dont matter to the MNR, if GK were to fund the development they would do it out of debt and FCF - building up a large reserve of cash prior to a potential development which might or might not happen is in nobodies interest especially shareholders....

I havent been that active on this board since last year - but having held GKP for nearly 2 years now I've sold my lot.

This isn't a de-ramping post, I think the price of oil will stay elevated for a long time and this will remain high and if you believe oil will go to the £150+ then your in for even more big hikes, but you have to take the profits sometime and the % profit I've made here is now huge! Thanks to the handful of helpful knowledgeable posters on here and all the best for the future!

Sorry, being lazy. Wondering if anyone has an update or a model showing the status of the cost pool as it stands?

Even if the US do bring Venezuela and Iran oil into the global mix it will hardly touch the sides. Iran may make a small dent, but Venezuela's oil industry is in such a state that it would take years (maybe decades) to get production up to impact the oil price.

This situation is the result of over a decade of under investment in fossil fuels - countries, especially the EU have relied on "other countries" to supply their dirty fossil fuels, while pushing forward a green agenda to gain political browny points.

Case in point is the large GEMs gas field in Germany - ready to be developed, planned to be powered by wind, very shallow water and easily hooked into the gas system but they have denied it permission because its "fossil fuel". Instead they planned to import dirty high CO2 footprint Russian gas.....

Rant over!

Capricorn (or Cairn) used to own this back in the day: snipit below from an article:

The Greenland assets were added to in September 2016 when Bluejay agreed to acquire
100% of Avannaa Exploration from Capricorn Oil, a subsidiary of Cairn Energy, for £500,000
in new Bluejay shares

Its carbonate, so the only way to understand is to drill more wells. Big carbonate fields are rarely fully understood because of all the secondary processes affecting porosity & permeability.

But they wouldn’t acquire CNE for £2… they’d need to pay substantially more to offer additional value to the current holders?

My thought is that this will rise to £2.20-£2.40 on receipt of the India money. IF there is a takeover it would need to be done quickly, and offer something substantial for shareholders to replace the dividend. an issue I think CNE may have is the current main holders exiting after divi, and there being a massive churn in the company holders.

2.75 share price - so that’s £1.37bn market cap? £1billion of that cash.

So a bid of £3 would be required? Or £1.5billion? Or do you think shareholders would sell for value?