Hello 1£ ,
Im afraid I cant do that . If I did , I would be deluged by posts from my fans , both on here and ADVFN. Not all them complimentary either.
Incidentally arent Investors supposed to be +ve about their investment ? Otherwise why buy shares in the first place ?
They are organised as a quick visit to ADVFN will soon confirm . Ditto on here.
They seem to have 3 aims.
(1) Convince us GKP is a basket case OR Overvalued - currently.
(2) Put off potential new investors .
(3) "Punish" GKP whom they blame for their losses.
I agree , the trouble in the past was that naive investors , many having read reports in the press re GKP, then read bboard ramping , jumped on board then got burned. Thats called experience and hopefully should not be repeated.
I gave a a valuation based on a friend on mine. One of the points he made was that big fields always get bigger , sometimes much much bigger, and there can be a premium of up to 40% paid by a buyer. He also doesnt think too much about the current PSC which is loaded in the Kurds favour.
I also have a fairly modest price in mind and will start off loading in tranches when that is reached. In the meantime we wait for events to show us who is right - one way or another.
You got that right 1£
Its quite simple , this is a board for genuine investors in GKP who believe the future will be better than the past.
If you are not a genuine investor , or believe the future will be the same - or worse than the past , then you obviously would not hold shares and consequently have no need to post on here.
Its all very well building millions of electric vehicles , but its entirely another having the generating capacity and a power grid capable of distributing that same power ( look at Texas recently ) . The UK power grid is almost overloaded as it is and will require 10's of £billions and at least a decade to update it.
Politicians have a habit of making promises they will not have to implement , especially just before elections (LOL) I also imagine no one is going to like their overseas holidays taxed out of existence by some punitive tax on airtravel. Ill believe it when it happens.
For once I agree with you , that return on investment may indeed be a key reason why no oil major has been willing to commit to Kurdistan so far, or at least not publically. However Contracts can be re negotiated , a PSC is not cast in stone, its a living document. I expect the Kurds are looking at these Contracts now and I would imagine they will be altered in the future.
Thats the key driver this time.
Kurdistan only has oil for revenue. It needs time to diversify its economy for the future and needs the cash to do so. Much the same as the Saudi's. Forget all the valuations. The imaginary "issues" and focus on what this has always been about geopolitics. The difference this time is the KRG and ICG are in the same canoe without a paddle.
Yes GKP could eventually design and build PF-3 . Drill 20-30 new wells , build flow lines / pipelines /export pumps/gas processing kit and everything else they will need . But not in the timeframe the Kurds require right now.
Thats why they are talking and negotiating . They need each other and thats why (hopefully) it will be resolved - finally.
ML I agree , and like you Ill believe it when it happens.
However this time at least they are talking about it happening.
Sometimes , not often , but occasionally , you get a major surprise, and since I am an optimist by nature Ill hold that thought.
Hope this helps R2R...LOL
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Well said G . Its been quite an emotional rollercoaster for us LT holders on here. But it sounds like we are going to get one last bite at the cherry if that story about the Oil & Gas Law about to be passed - happens.
Spot on FH1 , thats exactly what happened. retail ended up by accident , with the lions share in what turned out to be one of the largest onshore finds in Kurdistan if not elsewhere. The City did not like that. Then we have the trolls telling us all we are doomed and the II's buying every share they can get their hands on.
Yet some on here still cant see it. Well good luck with that . TK warned us about the expected city "games a long time ago.
An old ii post I have on file , as a reminder .
Take note !
“ Do not be fooled “
So says Broadford bay , part of the triumvirate of fraudsters that have plagued this share for a decade , spinning their lies and deceit - all on a share which they claim is useless and has no value and in which they are not invested . And yet ...still here dishing out advice .....how very noble
The other two conmen are , of course , the rabid Bigdog and the psychotic Oilman . The only question remaining about these liars and fraudsters is ........who do they work for ?
A question from FlyingHorse on LSE - "Why the Derampers?"
"GKP has been plagued by bashers for years now. I would be interested in hearing theories from LTH’s why this bashing is so prevalent. Is it because there is a group of writers being paid to drive negative sentiment? If so what is the purpose? Who would pay for this bashing and why?"
Uncle Tony claims that he has access to and meetings with a Director or Directors who tell him stuff and keep him bang up to date and he calls this source goatcam.
Why would any Director give the time of day to an individual like Uncle Tony unless like Jeremy Asher they were using him as a useful idiot.
He and his acolytes then come on this and other public bulletin boards full of doom and gloom telling us that Shaikan is riddled with problems and is a basket case, a month ago he said that "MOL don't want to spend another dollar in Kurdistan" and told K4N4K "I assure you I don't want any GKP shares."
Lansdowne meanwhile also have a man in the boardroom who keeps them bang up to date and tells them stuff, and he's called GarretSodencam who tells them the opposite and that they should buy 15.5% of the Company or 32.5 million shares.
Lansdowne are the biggest holders of shares in GKP.
So we have Uncle Tony and his cronies Bigdog and Broadford telling as many private investors as they can reach that GKP is a basket case at the same time as Lansdowne, Hof Hoorneman, Blackrock, UBS, Gertjan Koomen, Brightsphere and other institutions hoover up every share that gets shaken out.
I don't know how much trolls are paid but it can't be much when they live in £110k houses in Salford and need to supplement their income by cleaning up old spark plugs.
Follow the money not the trolls.
"Exxon Mobil is reportedly planning to divest its 32.7% stake in Iraq’s West Qurna-1 oil field in a bid to slash its debt."
Here's why they want rid of it, it's cheap because it needs to be.
They just want out, it's a nightmare.
"Exxon Mobil Corp. is considering selling its stake in Iraq’s West Qurna-1 oil field in a sign that the supermajor is willing to part with one its marquee oil fields in the Middle East to reduce the mountain of debt accumulated last year."
"Covid-19 had a crushing impact on Exxon’s finances, causing its debt to balloon to more than $70 billion and prompting two downgrades in less than a year from Moody’s Investors Service."
"Exxon has slashed its annual capital spending by some $10 billion a year all the way out to 2025, saying it will focus on its core projects in Guyana and the Permian Basin. That may have pushed West Qurna-1 down the pecking order for the limited capital the company now has available for new developments."
The development of West Qurna and the other southern fields is dependant on the construction of the Common Seawater Supply Project to recover the oil and which is estimated to cost some $12 billion. This project has been dragging on for 10 years and the government said they would provide funding for it which needless to say never materialised, and here's why:-
“A lot of what needs to happen in order make this project [CSSP] progress will be in the hands of people who are less concerned about it working than about what they can personally pocket to allow it to occur,”
"The central problem for ExxonMobil was always – and remains - that the risk/reward elements of the contract are profoundly unbalanced, a senior oil and gas industry source close to negotiations told OilPrice.com."
"The lack of a meaningful structure by which law relating to the origination, monitoring, and administration of business agreements opens ExxonMobil up to a plethora of problems in the future. Many leading politicians on the opposite side of whoever is nominally in charge of Iraq at the time have clearly said that they will not stand by the decisions relating to the oil and gas industry made by their predecessors, which means that any agreement done now with ExxonMobil is meaningless,”
Another problem is the crap and deeply unpopular Technical Service Contracts that the IOCs that operate in southern Iraq have to work under.
It's all here:-
The Real Reason Why ExxonMobil Won’t Go Ahead With $53 Billion Iraqi Megaproject.
Indeed there are cages severely rattled by the sound of it - but not mine ! LOL But somebody is , if they can spend hours going though all my old posts. Why dont you post my old technical posts on Oil Issues and FDP’s ?
I have never given MY value of GKP because Corporate Finance is not my area. However what I did was give the opinion of an expert I happen to know and trust. My strategy is the same now as it was 10 years or so ago ,when I was tipped of about GKP by another expert friend. HOLD and buy large dips.
As for trolls , you have only to look at the tremendous time and effort being put in to pursuade us that GKP is worth a few pounds . The constant attacks on ONLY +ve and knowledgable posters , then ask yourself why ? Why would groups , or individuals go to such lengths - over a period of ~ 10 years ?
Then this “Paul” they all seem so obsessed about ( another +ve poster BTW ) but they don’t seem to bother about the likes of Bigdog5 or Macfly/OM63 posting none stop rubbish 24/7 for a DECADE. Why not ?
As for CPR’s ? Go and google what a CPR is , and actually for.
Calling me duplicitious ? That’s not just the pot calling the kettle black it’s the whole kitchen
Yes I made a genuine mistake with Shamaran.
I stand by my prior observation CCC - you are an idiot.
GLA genuine holders