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Thanks for posting Straycat good post.
SHC a poster on ADVFN posted Re a Mexican Co that have declared 500 mill blls reserves after one drill on just 34 sq KM acreage !
Shaikan is about 130 sq KM and the CPR just factors in the Jurassic when there is oil in all the other zones . The CPR cuts off loads of potential bearing pay due to thermals and also due OWC depth , it is also ridiculously harsh in Re to FP giving a value of 0.7% when the recent studies we have seen are way north of this.
Something has to give and soon.
The pressure will come from the major holders once the share price continues to slide to silly levels and payment news stalls.
Were in a bit of a mess imho and deserve some clarity.
There are too many questions and not enough (=no) answers.
At the risk of courting controversy and abuse in equal measure, nevertheless it’s still worth pointing out that if GKP were sold in principle awaiting technical sign off, the following would all be explained:-
1) The awards of millions more nil cost options to JF and SZ on 1/5/2019 only two months after the Board had announced that no further option awards were envisaged;
2) The requirement for buy back authority in May to satisfy the vesting of staff share option plans only a few weeks after SZ had denied the possibility of buy back during Q&As at the Capital Events Day;
3) That buyback authority request being sought years before the staff options were due to vest naturally;
4) That otherwise extraordinarily expensive $100m stand by facility to be drawn down in the event that any buy back might cost more than envisaged;
5) Sami’s unexplained departure with an effective date in early December without any care for Year End accounting procedures;
6) The share price resilience on the news of Sami’s leaving the Company;
7) The application of dividends to treasury shares ;
8) The delays in FPD approvals following resubmission over six months ago;
9) The absence of any updated CPR;
10) The delays in operational deadlines to 55k bopd;
11) The remarkable II perseverance with the underperformance of the Company and its share price;
12) The complete operational information ‘lock down’ for the last three months;
13) The appointment of an obscure low level accountant to oversee a major capital expenditure development;
14) The absence of option shares in Ian Weatherdon’s offer package;
15) The delay in his start date to mid January 2020;
16) The apparent lack of any senior financial year end oversight.
17) The non payment of August invoices.
And there may well be other pointers I have missed.
Of course, such an explanation involves an acceptance that such a sale has to have been in the making for some considerable time.
But equally it could be that there are other interpretations of the above events.
For example, it could just be that GKP are doing exactly what they have set out to do and are simply suffering the vagaries of operational difficulties faced on the ground, and the management **** ups when implementing the Company's newly defined corporate initiatives coming out of the Boardroom.
But one thing’s for sure……if that is the case then there’s a desperate need for more transparency if they’re going to get on and develop their organic growth plan unquestioned.
ALL IMO. DYOR.
Who knows Straycat, but no one is under pressure here, and no one can be put under pressure from us PI's, those days are over. The only inkling of pressure was rumours that certain Insti's weren't happy with the remuneration, and it may have been adjusted downwards, but it was just a rumour.
Insti's can sit here for years for their awaited outcome and (as Blackrock does) bounce above and below thresholds with great regularity, making money as they do, whilst they wait. And the really depressing part is their outcomes and rewards are way out of sync with what many PI's need to get out of the shi'ite.
Who knows? But we do know is this is an abnormal organisation with a communication policy that doesn't care who thinks that or attempt to alter that perception. It's up to the individual what alternative reality they wish to place themselves in to escape that fact.
"Also the action of short seller coincides with Sami leaving. What is the link?"
No one is Short Selling GKP
Voleon Capital Management has Borrowed Shares and is using them to gain from Arbitraging GKP across the various Alternative Markets GKP is traded on.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/arbitrage.asp
https://www.thefreedictionary.com/arbitraging
C0ckeye,
So what's in it for the IIs then?
They were there before the announcement of the dividend initiative and still they remain.
Why?
'The pressure is mounting as production increases and missed payment dates are all upon us now so need has to be forthcoming or JF will be under serious pressure and imho rightly sacked.'
Bugsy, what pressure? From whom? The bulletin boards? Don't you think if he was under pressure he would release some information, or one of his little videos? And what if he does miss production timelines, he already has and what was the consequences for him then?
He's not under any pressure, none of the BoD are. They are, as far as any of us can see, a law unto themselves along with their corrupt regional masters. We are but their playthings, at their whim and mercy.
The company's quite disgraceful lack of communication and clarity on a number of issues is the cause of the problem.
I don't need to highlight them as we all know what they are and confidence is really at an all time low due to it.
The pressure is mounting as production increases and missed payment dates are all upon us now so need has to be forthcoming or JF will be under serious pressure and imho rightly sacked.
Also the action of short seller coincides with Sami leaving. What is the link?
The point about the short seller is that have borrowed stock. They will have borrowed from one of the big IIs - one that has no intention of selling stock long term but is happy to get a fee for lending their stock short term. The short seller calculation is that there will be a real lull in news from Oct to June so a chance to make money by hitting the sp. They must be pretty sure that GKP will not be sold over this time or they will lose their shirts.
As of the 28th November 2019 Register, I can confirm that Sothic Capital, Hof Hoorneman, Capital Group, BlackRock, JPMorgan, UBS, BrightSphere , Dimensional Fund Advisors, Fidelity, Dynasty and a lot more still hold GKP Shares.
And when one of them starts selling, based on the fact that someone has to Sell for someone else to Buy, the Price will Rise
tom,
I'm right in saying they were all on the Register before the Dividend initiative was launched in March 2019?
If so, I've no idea why they would hang around for this painful experience as it plays out before our very eyes.
Unless.....
Only 12 trading days to year end and these FACTS require explanation-
Complete GKP lock down on shareholder information;
No Ops Updates for 3 months despite the major ongoing activity in the Field and admitted delays;
Majorly overdue cash receipts way out of line with this year's payment model;
No CFO leadership at a critical time;
No new share option incentive plans for employees;
Treasury shares in place to 'satisfy the vesting of staff option plans' years before time (and dividend attributed);
Coincidences?
Maybe.
Explanations?
None.