Member Info for MikeyT21

I've known NB for 15 year & he has held GKP shares for nearly as long

Posting is difficult for me so as I t/hone with him I will pass messages through TB

T/you

"I foolishly bought yesterday morning, gutted but why the big drop, any ideas?"

Looking for answers to days fall . . . look for the obvious first
The Oil Price started falling from its high Monday

FTSE100 . . . 5,597.65 . (-193.66) . (-3.34%)

Brent . . . $27.40 . . (-2.84) . (-9.39%) . . Day high . . $30.30

"I'm sure I'm not alone in wondering how your are getting along ?"

I expected some changes . . but what's happening are certainly not what I expected

"I'm sure I'm not alone in wondering how your are getting along ?"

Thanks for your concerns, much appreciated

If I can get a report together this weekend that sounds something like decent I post it, but matters are under constant daily change

The Altrush Pipeline crosses Shaikan on the Eastern end, passing close to SH-6 across a fairly busy road that runs under the whole length of Shaikan, then goes straight down the Eastern side of PF2 to the Mixing/Export Station sat to the North of the Main Export Pipeline.
The Oil then goes through the Blending Process and is pumped directly into the Main Export Pipeline . . . To my knowledge after crossing the Altrush Licence Boundary the Pipeline costs where paid for by the Altrush Partnership . . No Shaikan Pipeline Connects to an Altrush Pipeline

The PF2 Pipeline went from PF2 some 400mtrs to Mixing Station where it was Blended with the Altrush & Khurmala Dome Oil and from where it went into the Main Export Pipeline . . . To my knowledge after crossing the Shaikan Licence Boundary the remaining Pipeline Costs was paid for by GKP . . At no point did the Altrush & Shaikan PF2 Pipeline join together "before" they entered the Mixing/ Export Station

The PF1 Pipeline went from PF1, in most cases breaking fresh ground, until it went down the West side of PF2 to the Mixing/Export Station . . . To my knowledge after crossing the Shaikan Licence Boundary the remaining Pipeline was paid for by GKP

At the Mixing/Export Station the 3 Pipelines are pumped in a least 4 Holding Tanks maybe more by now.
The Mixing/Export Station also contains at least 3 or 4 Truck Loading / Unloading Facilities through which Oil from minor Oil Fields can be delivered to the M&E Station, and removed from for in Country Processing.
It's hard to tell through Satellite Imagery how large inside its boundary fence the M&E Station actually is, but I's say its around 6/700mtr X 4/500mtr maybe larger
As more through put increased, I have witnessed the Facility being expended, but my Licence is now no longer valid

Inside the M&E Station the different Oil API's from Shaikan, Altrush and the Khurmala Dome are Blended, before going through 2 or maybe 3 Large Pumps to move the Oil on towards the DNO M&E Station down stream.

At DNO's M&E Station Oil comes in from Tawke, by truck load from other DNO Licences and a few minor Oil Fields & the process is the same before the Oil is Exported as the Kurdistan Blend (citation needed)

The Altrush Pipeline crossed Shaikan on the Eastern side, close to SH-6 across a fairly busy road that runs under the whole length of Shaikan, and went straight down the East side of PF2 to the Mixing/Export Station sat to the North of the Main Export Pipeline, from where after it goes through the Blending Process and is pumped directly into the Main Export Pipeline . . . To my knowledge after crossing the Altrush Licence Boundary the Pipeline costs where paid for by the Altrush Partnership . . No Shaikan Pipeline Connects to an Altrush Pipeline

The PF2 Pipeline went from PF2 some 400mtrs to Mixing Station where it was Blended with the Altrush & Khurmala Dome Oil and from where it went into the Main Export Pipeline . . . To my knowledge after crossing the Shaikan Licence Boundary the remaining Pipeline Costs was paid for by GKP . . At no point did the Altrush & Shaikan PF2 Pipeline join together "before" they entered the Mixing/ Export Station

The PF1 Pipeline went from PF1, in most cases breaking fresh ground, until it went down the West side of PF2 to the Mixing/Export Station . . . To my knowledge after crossing the Shaikan Licence Boundary the remaining Pipeline was paid for by GKP

At the Mixing/Export Station the 3 Pipelines are pumped in a least 4 Holding Tanks maybe more by now.
The Mixing/Export Station also contains at least 3 or 4 Truck Loading / Unloading Facilities through which Oil from minor Oil Fields can be delivered to the M&E Station, and removed from for in Country Processing.
It's hard to tell through Satellite Imagery how large inside its boundary fence the M&E Station actually is, but I's say its around 6/700mtr X 4/500mtr maybe larger
As more through put increased, I have witnessed the Facility being expended, but my Licence is now no longer valid

Inside the M&E Station the different Oil API's from Shaikan, Altrush and the Khurmala Dome are Blended, before going through 2 or maybe 3 Large Pumps to move the Oil on towards the DNO M&E Station down stream.

At DNO's M&E Station Oil comes in from Tawke, by truck load from other DNO Licences and a few minor Oil Fields & the process is the same before the Oil is Exported as the Kurdistan Blend (citation needed)

In late 2019 the KRG made a pact with the Devil (the ICG) to export 250,000 barrels per month by SOMO.

In return for the 250,000 barrels per month the ICG would send the KRG a share of the Iraqi Central Gov 2020 Budget.

As the Oil Price is now under the Oil Price in operation at the time the ICG Budget was agreed, the ICG will not have the money they expected to fulfil all their "commitments", which include the money to pay the KRG for its 250,000 barrels per month.

So my question is . . . is the ICG still Paying the amount agreed to the KRG in exchange for the 250,000 barrels per month.

Or . . . is the ICG keeping the KRG's money to ease their own Budget concerns.

I don't believe the ICG Devil is paying the KRG any part of the KRG's share of the ICG 2020 Budget . . . which not only means the KRG have "lost" 250,000 barrels per month in the first place, but in the 2nd, as a safety stop, the KRG has lost it's agreed share of the Iraqi Central Governments 2020 Budget

Remember . . when the KRG made their pact with the Devil there could me no going back, so the KRG can't take their 250,000 barrels per month back.

check it please

Please read the "defaults" portion of the Shaikan Licence

Stopping Production without being told to do so by the MNR/KRG would place GKP in default of the Terms of the Licence . . . which could cause GKP the loss of the Shaikan Licence

From October 2016 Ramptastic surreyscot posted Strong Buy Recommends

All the way up to 302p the Ramptastic Surreyscot posted Strong Buy Recommends

And all the way down from 302p to 70p the Ramptastic Surreyscot posted Strong Buy Recommends

It was only when challenged that the Ramptastic Surreyscot started posting Hold recommends

But still the Ramptastic Surreyscot continues the same Ramptastic theme by posting comparisons between a Pandemic Virus and the deaths caused by "accidents" on the road.

Unbelievable

Ramptastic Surreyscot may as well make a comparison between a tennis ball with an orange to get a similar result

How on earth can anyone with anything near a brain compare an "accident" with a Virus Pandemic, which probably hasn't reached peak is beyond comprehension

Stick to plumbing Mikey and leave the the thinking to people who are capable of it.

You stupid person.
An accident cannot be compared to a Virus . . .

You really are a piece of work.

Road accidents are a part of life that happen day in day out, so comparing road accidents with a once in lifetime new virus Pandemic is showing you complete lack of thought.

"They have all increased but that may be due to the reduction in shares. Ie The buyback. Will have a work out to see if it relates to percentage increase"

If you work it out or just use common sense, you will find that a "reduction" in the Shares in Circulation will increase every Holders percentage Holdings.

Hedge Funds & Private Banks do not have to issue a RT-1
Institutional Investors and those Entities controlled by SEC do have to issue a RT-1 when their Holdings change

"Why has the buyback stopped? Is it to preserve cash to support paying dividend?"

Do you have any evidence that the Buy Back has been stopped ?

The present "lifting costs" of $3.9 can be found in the latest Presentations

"Invstrat, I believe that the lifting costs are originally charged to the Contractor(s) and are then reclaimable through the CO route."

The Contractors (GKP & MOL) paid 100% of the original Shaikan Capex Spend, and that Shaikan Capex is completely recoverable under the Production Sharing Contract

That original Capex is presently being recovered under a "revised" (from the original) Shaikan Production Sharing Contract. (PSC)
https://www.screencast.com/t/ppZ9dMcGFJ4

How the "present" Capex Spend which includes lifting costs will be recovered, as far as I can ascertain, is as yet unknown or un-annouced

Unfortunately I do not have any copies of the 2008/2009 Presentations containing a copy of the original R-Factor calculations, and as 2i has changed its Forum format, I can no longer go back through the 2009 posts on the subject which where amply covered back then

Theoryman

Capex is Recovered via a Cost Recovery route while the Profit Oil is a completely separate route.

Cost Recovery is 36% of the Gross Revenue

https://www.screencast.com/t/C5kAhwJATnd

"Am I a genius?"

No you are not

CFEP is processing a buy order so CFEP has unknowingly given you another chance to buy @ 146.5 ish.
Whether you took the chance when it was offered is another matter

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-coronavirus

How did Covid-19 start?

Because of the Chinese love of hocus-pocus medicines made from Wild Animals

The disease appears to have originated from a Wuhan seafood market where wild animals, including marmots, birds, rabbits, bats and snakes, are traded illegally. Coronaviruses are known to jump from animals to humans, so it’s thought that the first people infected with the disease – a group primarily made up of stallholders from the seafood market – contracted it from contact with animals.

Although an initial analysis of the virus that causes Covid-19 suggested it was similar to viruses seen in snakes, the hunt for the animal source of Covid-19 is still on. A team of virologists at the Wuhan Institute for Virology released a detailed paper showing that the new coronaviruses’ genetic makeup is 96 per cent identical to that of a coronavirus found in bats, while an as-yet unpublished study argues that genetic sequences of coronavirus in pangolins are 99 per cent similar to the human virus. Some early cases of Covid-19, however, appear to have inflicted people with no link to the Wuhan market at all, suggesting that the initial route of human infection may pre-date the market cases.

https://news.yahoo.com/where-did-chinas-coronavirus-come-from-131416813.html

https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-did-the-coronavirus-outbreak-start

The $51,840 in every $1,000,000 equates to a 5.184% Tax payment that GKP has to pay the KRG every month from its Profit Oil Payment.

Please check my calculations

Taking a figure of $1,000,000, by using the R-Factor one should be able to calculate how much Capex GKP is recovering each month.
So below is my go at calculating how much Cost Recovery GKP is getting back per $1m Payment

$1,000,000 - 10% KRG Royalty = $900,000

$900,000 is split 40% Cost Recovery $360,000 . . . 60% Profit Oil $540,000

The Profit Oil $540,000 is then split 30% GKP & MOL and 70% to the KRG
$540,000 x 30% = $162,000

The $360,000 Cost Recovery is divided along Working Interest line which equates to $288,000 GKP and $72,000 to MOL

The $360,000 Cost recovery Oil is then added to the $162,000 = $522,000 which is split as per Working Interest of 80---20

$522,000 x 80---20 = $417,600 GKP and $104,400 MOL

Of the $417,600 per $1m GKP receives, $288,000 is Cost Recovery and $129,600 gains under the Working Interest split of 80% GKP ---20% MOL

As the Working Interest split is made up from what is termed as Profit Oil, if GKP is liable on a monthly Basis to pay a Capacity Building Tax of 40%, then in every $1,000,000 of Production which gains GKP a Profit Oil Payment of $129,600, GKP would be liable to pay $129,600 x 40% = $51,840.

On a Payment of $15,000,000 to GKP, that would equate to a Payment of $777,600 per month Capacity Building Tax to the KRG