The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Very good question. The decline is charted between about midday and 14:00 hours but there are very few trades during that period. This suggests that market makers are depressing the price to generate trade.
Does anyone have any insights or info into the recent drop ? Can't seem to find an obvious reason for it (general market sentiment ?), but may have missed something. Any feedback appreciated. Thank you.
Yes - through Primary Bid too! Got shares into my account this morning
Yes, through Primary Bid. I subscribed, but have yet to see any shares appear in my account.
Did any private investors get the briefest chance at this **** show of an instantly oversubscribed "boys club" discounted share holding diluting offering?
Simon Thompson has published a new write up of Gresham House.
He's raised his target to 1100p from 1000.
The basis of the raised target is the continuing increases in Assets Under Management, ESG credentials, fund raises and the additional benefits of the purchase of Mobius VCT's.
Looking back at Simon's track record regarding tips relating to Gresham House there's a pronounced pattern of achievement. I have little doubt that this latest target will be achieved.
What a great RNS. Nothing to add it reads for itself. Everything up including dividend.
What’s everyone’s thoughts on this IPO on primary bid? Will the share price rise on day one?
The Holy Grail for investors is to identify companies with potential to turn an early-stage recovery story into a multi-month earnings upgrade cycle, so forcing analysts to repeatedly upgrade their earnings estimates. In turn, investors have a habit of paying a higher price for a slice of the action so you can benefit from earnings multiple expansion, too. It therefore pays to know the precise profit drivers to look out for, I certainly do having dedicated several chapters and case studies to this very subject in both of my books.
Areas of interest include a company’s position within its market and whether industry demand (both cyclical and structural) is creating a tailwind to ride off. Understanding operational leverage is important to ascertain the extent to which profits can accelerate as revenue ratchets up. I also take a close look at cash generation and working capital management to identify enterprises that recycle operating cash flow back into their businesses either through organic investment or bolt-on acquisitions to create shareholder value.
It certainly pays to embrace technological change and keep an eye on macroeconomic and political factors that may impact performance. Many of these dynamics are at play with the five companies I highlight below. It’s no coincidence that they have all just posted earnings beats.
Gresham House obliterates forecasts
£1bn of organic assets under management inflows in 2020.
Double-digit earnings upgrades for 2020 and 2021.
Gresham House (GHE:810p), a fund manager specialising in renewable energy generation, solar power, wind, forestry, infrastructure funds and public and private equity investment strategies, has smashed analysts’ earnings estimates, and prompted hefty upgrades.
Assets under management (AUM) increased by an eye-catching 42 per cent from £2.8bn to £3.9bn in 2020, or 15 per cent above investment bank Jefferies forecast, buoyed by £1bn of organic inflows. The addition of £640m of AUM in the second half included £266m of capital raises for Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID), Gresham House Forest Fund I LP and the group’s Baronsmead VCTs.
Tight industry pricing, ongoing demand from housebuilders and healthy investment returns are supporting interest in Gresham House’s forestry funds. Moreover, with the benefit of a strong balance sheet – estimated net cash of £21.8m at the 2020 financial year-end – Gresham has been making strategic and complementary bolt-on acquisitions. The proposed earnings accretive acquisition of Republic of Ireland-based Appian Asset Management for an initial consideration of €4.55m (£4m) adds AUM of €330m including a forestry portfolio. Appian plans to launch a social housing fund in Ireland that is complementary to Gresham House's Residential Secure Income LP fund, targeting the shared ownership housing market and aiming to unlock a supply of more affordable houses. This highlights Gresham House’s ESG credentials as do investments in
Bearing in mind political considerations, this stock looks very interesting. Have held both RICA and HAST for too long losing on both alternatives and feel the time may be right to sell down all or some there and take a chunk here. Seems pretty safe with a realistic yield and O>K for a boring old boy like me!
I've updated an earlier post showing Simon Thompson's tips for Gresham House and how they've performed.
He's done another big write up in Investors Chronicle, increasing his target to 700p.
This new target reflects:
New forestry assets in Ireland
Fund raises in some of the assets they manage
Organic growth of 30% in assets under management
Increasing profit margins
6/2/17 share price 305, target 400. Target attained 18/12/17, 10 months
20/9/17 share price 335, target 432. Target attained 16/5/18, 8 months
12/2/18 share price 400, target 460. Target attained 24/8/18, 6 months
16/5/18 share price 424, target 500. Target attained 16/11/18, 6 months
19/9/18 share price 475, target 575. Target attained 28/5/19, 8 months
12/11/18 share price 470, target 650.
7/3/19 share price 460, target 650
26/3/19 share price 520, target 650
28/5/19 share price 565, target 700
"profits are set to scale up sharply as last year’s underlying operating margin of 20 per cent ratchets up towards the board's 40 per cent target rate"
"I would recommend staying fully invested in Gresham House though given that the shares offer potentially 41 per cent to my 650p target price. Buy."
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/03/07/gresham-house-on-course-to-treble-profits/
I'm a fan of Simon Thompson from the Investors Chronicle. I hold GHE.
I've had a look back through his recommendations which started in early 2016 when he included GHE in his tips for the year.
5/2/16 SP 312 Buy
20/4/15 SP 300 Buy
28/7/16 SP 300 Buy
19/8/16 SP 330 Buy
6/2/17 SP 305 Buy target 400
20/9/17 SP 335 Buy target 432
12/2/18 SP 400 Buy target 460
5/3/18 SP 410 Buy target 460
16/5/18 SP 424 Buy target 500
19/9/18 SP 475 Buy target 575
12/11/18 SP 470 target 650
It's noticeable that the targets he sets here are generally achieved six to twelve months after they've been set.
Simon Thompson from the Investors Chronicle has raised his 12 month target for Gresham House to 650p from 575p.
He's very positive about the new Gresham House Energy Storage Fund, further increases in the funds already running and the protects for cash generation.
The new target is based on £38.5m cash and liquid resources and an an enterprise value of £134m.
The acquisition of Livingbridge is flagged in the RNS as being “materially earnings enhancing”.
Liberum Capital has forecasts for 2019
Revenue £164m
Pre tax profit £4.95m
EPS 20.4p.
If we add the Livingbridge figures of revenue £9.1m and pre tax £5m then Gresham 2019 becomes
Revenue £25.5m, pre tax £9.95m and EPS 35p (based on 28.4m shares)
On top of this, Livingbridge will make one months contribution to 2018 and raise the revenue and pre tax figures (although EPS may be lower due to the increase in shares)
It looks very good to me.
of 575p from Simon Thompson in IC online today.........still a buy for him
but no increase in share price..........?? Cannot see how they could be "priced in".......thoughts please LSE'ers
I think this one might start to move on up a good bit this year , they hope to become profitable ahead of schedule.
why the change of Directors, is it anything to do with Anthony Abel and Derek Lucie Smith overseeing the drop in Memorial Holdings from £2,568,000 to £0 (no value in 2014 interims?) Skeletons??
She's rising:)
Proposals for the future of the Company Introduction The board of directors of the Company (the "Board") is pleased to announce that it is in discussions relating to the future of the Company which, if brought to a satisfactory conclusion, would provide an attractive alternative to the current plan of liquidation and distribution as approved at the 2011 annual general meeting. The expected key features of the alternative plan (the "Proposals") include: -- the appointment of a substantially new board of directors and a new management team (together the "New Team") whose members would include individuals with long-standing and successful investment track records; -- a new strategic direction for the Company including the proposed development of an asset management business and investment portfolio; -- the issue of new ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") by way of a placing ("Placing") to new investors at a discount of 11.25 per cent. to the net asset value per Ordinary Share as at 30 June 2014 in order to raise approximately GBP20 million. Preliminary non-binding indications of interest in subscribing for a significant portion of this sum have already been expressed to the Company's advisers; -- the issue of warrants ("Warrants"), to be admitted to trading on AIM, to those holders of the Company's shares (the "Shareholders"), other than placees, on a one Warrant per five Ordinary Shares basis; -- the purchase of up to 850,000 supporter warrants (the "Supporter Warrants") by members of the New Team at a price of GBP0.075 per Supporter Warrant; -- the cancellation of the Company's listing on the Main Market and the admission of the share capital of the Company as enlarged by the Placing (the "Enlarged Share Capital") and the Warrants to trading on AIM ("Admission"); -- the reduction of the Company's share premium account by cancelling the share premium arising on the issue of the new Ordinary Shares; and -- the amendment of the Company's Investment Policy. It should be noted that discussions are at an early stage and there is no certainty that agreement as regards the implementation of the Proposals, or any part of the Proposals, will be reached. Furthermore, if progressed, implementation of the Proposals will be subject to, amongst other things, approval by the Shareholders (including of special resolutions requiring approval of 75% of votes cast on the relevant resolutions to be cast in favour). If any of the resolutions are not approved by Shareholders, none of the Proposals will proceed. The Board believes that, if implemented, the Proposals provide an attractive alternative to the current plan of liquidation and distribution which, as announced, will involve a significant amount of
Borrowings Whilst overall short term borrowings have increased by £1m as a result of the revenue losses, bank loan repayments and property capital expenditure I am pleased to report that the loan facility with the Co-operative Bank in the sum of £9.79m has been renewed for a further 12 months to 31 May 2013 on terms not materially different to those relating to the loan that expired in May 2012 but now with additional security ranking behind the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). In addition the loan facility to Knowsley Industrial Property Ltd by RBS of £1,976k has been renewed until 31 December 2013 and that to Newton Estate Ltd of £3,050k, also by RBS, has been extended until 31 March 2013 both on broadly similar terms to the facilities that expired on 16 July 2012. Disposal Strategy We continue to focus on the disposal of your Company’s assets and, providing there is no further deterioration in the commercial property market, we believe that it is practical to achieve a liquidation of the Company by the end of 2013. Tony Ebel Chairman 30 August 2012
Property Portfolio We continue to work the portfolio with a view to liquidating the assets by the end of 2013 whilst seeking to maximise their values. At Newton-le-Willows we are confident that in September 2012 we will secure a valuable consent on 10 acres for a 70,000 sq. ft. (6,500m2) foodstore, petrol filling station and associated car parking. Thereafter we will commence discussions with potential operators. At Vincent Lane, Dorking, Lidl are due to complete the purchase of 1.2 acres and commence development this autumn. Persimmon Homes have submitted an appeal against the Local Authority’s decision to refuse planning for housing and are confident of a successful outcome within 6 months. At Deacon Park, Knowsley terms have been agreed for the sale of the Sugarich unit to the tenant. At Southern Gateway, we have recently completed the letting of a 48,000 sq. ft. (4,400m2) standalone unit to Acumen Distribution on market terms and at Northern Gateway we are currently in detailed negotiations with a potential tenant for this 143,000 sq. ft. (13,200m2) warehouse. Securities Portfolio The principal investments remain SpaceandPeople plc and Memorial Holdings Limited. As mentioned previously the former has produced some very good results and consequently we continue to hold this investment. With regard to the latter, which relates to an investment in a 55 acre cemetery at Kemnal Park, the company held its first interment in May 2012 when it buried some ancient bones that were disturbed by the construction of Crossrail in Southwark. The cemetery opened at the end of August 2012 for graveside burials and the chapel is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The latest independent valuation was below our expectations but it is difficult to validate a premium product where there is very little competition in the market. We however remain confident of both the proposed business plan and the excellence of the cemetery. Our investment in Attila (BR) Limited is looking more positive following the exchange of conditional contracts for the sale of the company’s sole asset being development land in Edinburgh.
Capital Account Following our normal policy no independent valuations have been undertaken at the half year end and, as a consequence, values have been maintained at the independent valuations of 31 December 2011. We have therefore provided against all capital additions to the property portfolio which amounted to £258,000 in the period to 30 June 2012 compared to £147,000 in the period to 30 June 2011. The principal provisions were against costs incurred in connection with our development sites at Newton le Willows and Vincent Lane, Dorking. The investment portfolio showed losses of £181,000 during the half year ended 30 June 2012. The principal write down was £358,000 against our investment in Memorial Holdings Limited following a reduction in the independent valuation of the cemetery at Kemnal Park from £47.5million to £40 million, a figure that we believe to be very conservative, and the dilution of our shareholding from 15% to 10.5% as a result of the refinancing and further fundraising necessary to complete Phase 1 of the development. This write down was augmented by a further provision of £70,000 in respect of our loan to Lancashire Tea Limited and a £50,000 reduction in value of our holding in Wheelsure Holdings plc which is traded on PLUS Markets. Against this I am pleased to report some solid results from SpaceandPeople plc where the book value increased by £247,500 at the period end to 30 June 2012.