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Hi Zoros
I am not sure what you are getting at as I am in agreement with you regarding the PFS being based on last Decembers MRE.
However I disagree slightly on the drilling part. As mentioned in the MRE, 126,643 metres of drilling had been completed by Newcrest for the MRE. As of our July update that number had increased to 184,081 metres. so that would mean they have completed nearly 57,438 metres of extra drilling. I know some of that is growth drilling and some is infill drilling. What I am struggling to find is the news release that says how much drilling was planned for 2021.
So if you have that to hand I would like to see it as I am not sure if the 65k of new drilling was solely for growth or a combination of both.
Cheers
This is a note from the MRE Announcement on NCM web site last December. It’s in the small print down the bottom in the commentary.
Please take note of what it says:-
“
Further work
Infill drilling is underway on the top 350 vertical metres of the South Eastern Crescent within the existing resource outline, looking to upgrade the resource category to Indicated.
Growth drilling is planned to extend the limits of the mineralised system and infill drilling in the existing defined breccias looking to establish new Inferred Resources outside those stated in this announcement.”
That’s quite a strong statement of what we should be expecting.
An Indicated resource estimate is likely from the top 350m of the SE crescent.
That leaves the bottom 300m still in Inferred category.
Also the Northern breccia pockets are still in Inferred category.
SD has pointed us to December for the growth drilling, so an increase in the Inferred category due in December.
Sandeep mentioned the PFS will hopefully be in September with an MRE (Indicated) prior to that.
The MRE top 350m can’t be based on the 4.2m in the previous announcement, it’s different volumes and grades .
Both grades and volumes have increased a lot.
Basing a calculation on the known sizes of the sulphides 550x50x350 deep x 3(Sg) x 5g/t = 4.6m oz
Less 15% dilution = 3.9m oz gold only
Some of this may not be included in the shell cubes due to Kriging variations within the cubes , so my estimate would be around 3m without copper or what’s in the breccia
Pickandshovel - try and stay tuned in:
SD has always stated that the PFS will be based on 4.2Moz. There 'may' be a fractional uplift but nothing life changing.
Secondly, the 65Km of drilling was forecast to end as of June. They failed to reach this target as of june, achieving only 26Km, they then updated their stance by declaring the remainder will roll fwd into 2022.
Thirdly, they have already stated previously that their target for 2022, regarding drilling, is: 70 - 85Km @ Hav alone.
Z
Good to my previous post I added few more today....if you can ignore the current weakness and try to look a bit further ahead then it can be,should and hopefully would be different picture all together.....IMHO.
GLA.
You had me wondering there Paddy .. was going to question that but you beat me to it !
Paddy,
I think you are spot on, my understanding now from all the Shaun interviews plus additional info from folks on the board came to these conclusions.
PFS will be based on our MRE shell from December 2020
Growth drilling planned in 2020 for 2021 was due to be completed by end of June 2021, this would give them enough time to create the MRE update in December 2021( there has been a slight delay but I think they are still on track).
Future news will be to tell us how much growth drilling they plan on doing in 2022, with a specific end date to allow them to complete the annual MRE update in December 2022.
Sorry should have said growth drilling won't be included in the PFS....
I see there seems to be a bit of opinion going about now that the PFS might be later than September as Sandeep mentioned.
I still think it will go ahead as planned - the infill drilling for the inferred to indicated was completed by the report at the end of January I think, Shaun has been at pains to explain that the PFS will be based on the initial MRE figure and he has now told us there will be an MRE update in early December. So all the growth drilling that had been undertaken this year will not be included in the MRE. We also know that NCM need to get the PFS out ASAP to support the decision that they have made to begin the decline and the mine infrastructure.
I'm still expecting it next month, hopefully with the interims on the 8th - less than 5 weeks away.
GLA Paddy
Interim drilling results come about half way between quarterly results from NCM.
52 weeks in a year, so there are some 7week intervals.
good point gerry
Why are you expecting the 8th of September for the next update? That would be 7 weeks, not 6? Is this official? Just curious.
Probably next month. Not long now…
I take it there is little point being here for the next few weeks then as the price eats away more and news isn't due until September. Might look at Rio Tinto as Ex Divi date is coming up, price has dipped and Divi is over 6%. Good luck all.
NCM full year results due this month.
NCM next Havieron drill results to be announced late evening on 8th September 2021. Hopefully PFS is just after these drill results.
Sandeep Biswas said September ..
simple answer is no.
Afternoon All, I read that the PFS is due in late calendar year of 2021. Is there an exact date or even month?
GLA