The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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This is way oversold. The MC is only 143 mil - that's nothing. Should be closer to 200 mil for what we have now and the current potential.
Gday SK
Red Chris grade and geology aside it has huge environmental and pensions liabilities associated with its past operations.
Mariana is in Turkey.
If you value them on same basis them good luck to ya mate because you need your head read!
Cheers
CB
Along with all the others, they been at it for ages on here. But not one of them were around in the month it went up. Never to be seen on a blue day.
Easy to work out the agrnda
SK's a known de-ramper. If you engage with this idiot he'll play you like a fiddle
Hey sicillian kan
How about a chat in September?
Not all of us are short term traders..;)
Twta.
Enjoy.
See you at 20p.
I thought you had included about 14moz gold equivalent of copper in a Hav calculation that gave about 18 m oz
You are wrong as this is Havieron and this is officially how you should value the per ounce directly from BHP bilton
https://www.bhp.com/-/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/2006/amecconference.pdf?
See p 14 for utter clarity.
No, I do not recall ever valuing Red Chris before. In any event my Red Chris workings are below. If there is an error in them let me know.
SK do you mean you don't hold and will buy at 3.18 or?
Did you not mention about 18 m oz before in a calculation that took into account copper equivalent?
But using $200 / oz is comparing apples to pears. You cannot compare an explorer to a producer.
I note you have not disagreed with my maths on Red Chris.
My maths shows that Newcrest only paid $28/oz in the ground for Red Chris. My maths is below - if the maths is incorrect, do let me know:
5.9M tonnes contained copper (the copper resource at Red Chris) x $5735 per tonne = $33,836,500,000 (value of copper in the ground) / $1,583 (gold price) = 21,374,921 (equivalent oz of gold to the copper) + 20,000,000 oz gold (the gold resource at Red Chris) = 41,374,921 oz gold equivalent
$806,500,000 (price Newcrest paid for 70% of Red Chris) / 0.7 (to get value of 100% of Red Chris) = $1,152,142,857
/ 41,374,921 oz gold equivalent = $27.84 per oz.
Yet people on here think they will get 9x times Red Chris at $200 per oz. This figure is just not credible at the moment.
The $200 per oz suggestion has only arisen since a paid for note came out. The comparators are just three companies and all three of the comparator companies are producers! You can't compare the value of gold in the ground for a producer with the value of gold in the ground for an explorer! That's crazy and is a fundamental flaw for anyone transposing such valuations over to GGP.
A far better comparison is Mariana Resources. Mariana had grades far in excess of GGP, such as a staggering 60m x 80g/t and at much shallower depths. It was open pittable, with outstandingly low capex and opex requirements. It managed, as an explorer, to get just $165/oz for its residual 30%, on my maths. Yet you guys think you will get $200/oz here for a deeper and much lower grade resource?? In my view the value at GGP will be significantly less than $165/oz. $100/oz is a much better than average price to value gold at in the ground. It is more than reasonable to have as a starting point.
I add that Numis now estimate a larger reserve at the project of 5.5m oz against 4m oz previously. Forget the $200/oz valuation. If you take the still very optimistic $100/oz, this values GGP at 3.18p per share fully diluted, a figure that can be:
- reduced as it includes no discount for risk, the time it takes to realise the above, dilution to shares in interim if funds are raised etc.;
- increased as it does not include the opportunity of having a larger resource, give any credit for other land holdings, or the possibility of a better return given the desperation of Newcrest.
One can debate the figure, but I see everything over 3.18p as being overvalued at present. The market has clearly been adjusting itself and 6p was thought to be over bought. So too was 5p thought to be overbought by the market. 4p is now being tested. The price may stay above 4p, but in my view it is still overvalued and overbought - at this point in time in the life cycle of Greatland Gold. That does not mean to say that the value of Greatland will not rise as the exploration progresses.
Hence my 3.18p target for the moment.