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I have not doubted their ability to borrow , my point is no one knows yet how it will pan out , its all speculation , they could go down any of the routes and it could shock everyone
Freddie .. I didn't say NCM I said banks .. businesses go to banks for loans every day nothing difficult about it ! Especially when you own 30% of a tier 1 gold mine with a low AISC ( my assumption)
The 5% FMV will be decided by an independent third party with the relevant expertise. The only way to do that IMHO is to value the resource already known at an in ground valuation and add a discounted cash flow and risk factor percentage accounting for future reserves and will be paid via way of a royalty.
The 5% option is not really important because Newcrest already have a 70/30 majority control .
My investment decision here already factors in GGP owning 25% of Havieron and 4.2b shares in issue (after payment to pacific trends upon decision to mine) and the ROI is very attractive,
Hi Bamps,
Ive been a GGP shareholder for well over 18 months and a serial lurker of this fabulous BB for all that time.
I realise how much time and effort you (and the other stalwarts) put into helping people like me and I have to say a massive thank you for that.
Given that I respect your opinion as fair and balanced I was hoping to ask your thoughts on both Antipa and Artemis?
The Paterson appears to be looking more and more nailed on for district scale and whilst my passion will always be GGP, I wondered about a couple of little side bets on a couple of other explorers… especially as I missed the true early days on GGP.
Anyways, regardless of whether you answer or not I still remain a follower and appreciative of all your selfless support on this BB.
Cheers!
Mr Chad
Ok there will be no funding issues ncm will bank roll them forever , we will go with that
The point hydrogen is that it won't be an "offer" that GGP can choose whether not to accept. NCM have an OPTION, which means it will be (literally) an offer that we can't refuse.
Droverman , my post was lifted from the GGP website .. re Havieron so I will go with that ;-)
Hi Freddie . But did they have a joint venture with the biggest miner in Australia, not just one JV but 2, plus other prospective areas close by and a processing plant 45km away .. you have to look at the bigger picture and not compare apples with pears !
Newcrest already provided GGP A 50 million USD loan - pretty sure when that was provided and signed off by the Newcrest BoD’s it would have been done so because it’s easily secured by the 5% FMV with plenty of headroom to provide further loans …. Not expecting dilution unless of course it’s accretive
That's why I described it as a wrinkle...
As I have said a couple of times, I agree with the point Canary3 makes. GGP will accrue the economic benefit of 30% not 25%.
Hi lenz i knew another company with a massive asset who said funding would never be an issue , and phase 1 wasn’t it was phase 2 that was the problem , the company kept saying funding was coming whilst secretly selling out to a major , my point is that nothing is certain
StarBright... that's a bit left field to say the least ;-))
Hi Lenze, just quoting from NCM latest report IE 5% only at the end of the farm in period of 6 years. DM
My reading is that the timing is in Newcrest's control because they are (or will be if the preconditions are all met) the holder of the option. For example let's say that mining is out of fashion and the POG is on its knees at some future point. If Newcrest wish to acquire the additional 5% they'll be able to do so at a valuation consistent with the prevailing market conditions when (perhaps) GGP would prefer to hold on and sell only when conditions are more favourable.
"Just bought more think I've developed ocd"
CDO, please. Then it's in neat, alphabetical order.
Starbright
When -they control whether to accept, and how is already covered by the fact that calculation will be via an approved mechanism with a measure of independence.
StarBright it isn't a wrinkle ..the 5% will be an independent valuation from all the drill results NCM and GGP have at the time, with I would expect consideration for areas that are still open ! Imho
Canary3 is correct on the 5%. GGP will either own 30%, or it will own 25% + the consideration received for the final 5%.
The only wrinkle - as per my post in the other thread - is that GGP will not have full control over how and when the 5% is valued.
No one said anything about no loans, banks would be falling over themselves to lend GGP money on what the 30% would be worth in a years time !
Drover, did you read what I put up from the GGP we web site, they have 24months from the end of stage 3 to make an offer for the 5%
How will they afford to get to mining stage if they dont sell the 5% ? All we hear is no placing , no loans and no takeover , how are they going to fund the next 3 years
I can explain this to you TallChapJG. In fact I took the time a few weeks back to post some specific content here just to help you. But I can't understand it for you...
Hi Hydrogen, on reading the latest NCM report issued today on HAV it states quite clearly that they can only offer to buy the 5% at the end of the farm in period, nothing to stop GGP accepting an offer for the 5% before but if i was GGP i would wait until exactly the last week of the 6 th year of the farm in. Ciao DM
Yawn
It's not madness at all. The objectives are index replication and flow management, not buying low and selling high. GDXJ aren't making investment decisions, only receiving and delivering baskets of shares. Other market participants are initiating and executing the underlying trades in GGP (and other index securities) as you would know if you understand the inner workings of ETFs.