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A few shares appear to be hovering near the gap that occurred when the market fell sharply on Monday 9th March, having started to fall quite heavily the week before. However, G has recovered better than the other KRI companies and has effectively caught back up with the majors and the FTSE:
https://invst.ly/qdejp
Hi Boyo,
G performance has been quite astonishing, but perhaps in view of their strong y/e results, strong FCF & balance sheet, along with expansion plans, the market has reassessed them and raised to G v OP factor?
Jack
G poised on the edge of that gap to 137 - interesting:
https://invst.ly/qdclg
In theory, G would be rather stretched - is already stretched - v OP but that hasn't stopped it today.
150+ or is this a bit of ramping?
Not ramping, Hasiba, but probably the top end at $40 Brent
It may be worth remembering that before Coronavirus and shortly before the KRG delayed payments, before production cuts and before KSA fell out with Russia and OP collapsed, G managed to get to 225p at $62 Brent. The best price it achieved in 2019 was 233p at an OP of $73. Its two twelve month bests v OP could therefore be averaged to 229p at $67. So, in my view, you’d be lucky to see G at more than 140p at $40 Brent or 175p if Brent gets to $50. Still, I won't complain if it exceeds those numbers.
It could or should do 150 but doubt it will with oil at this price. I believe Genel is still the best positioned and value oiler on the market (with the associated risks) including all the other names on this thread
Well..Genl seems to be a momentum and value share now ...even when oil price goes down ...
Where will G sp be if Oil price at $40+....?150+ or is this a bit of ramping!
Watch out for the Decom costs in RRE hasiba. The high cash balance to some extent factors this in
Yes....from its “near low” luckily and was going to add more recently but dithered .it is my priority now to rotate more into it and maybe jog. .
RRE results today were reflecting a well run company ,with a big dividends makes it the star of all small cap oilers...just imo
Still holding strong .
hi hasiba, just wondered are you in rre as well?
Correct Hasiba - always essential to try to do valid comparisons. G has performed better than RDS since it hit its low but, of course, it lost much more heavily on the way down. Ultimately they are fairly even since the price crash. One offers less risk the other offers quicker gains. Both offer a good dividend. RDS doesn't have a single hard-pressed client, of course.
I choose to ride both horses (swapping between when advantageous) and, here's the important bit, they are both lining up to break above their respective resistance levels. What are they waiting for? What could they possibly have in common?
https://invst.ly/qc-5z
It doesn't matter much to me which one jumps first - but there may be a chance to switch rides with the profit.
As I have 90% in oilers companies...RDS is not on the list because of the increased debts recently to keep paying dividends...Genl has performed from its low recently far superior to RDS by more than 40% and paying dividends from big margins of profits....
RDS will have more difficult times a head....
The problem with charting both on the same page is your starting point of comparison which can be misleading......just imo
G appears to be champing at the bit today the ‘bit’ being the resistance around 117. But so, it seems, is RDS where the equivalent resistance is about 1480 and RDS arrived at it on Thursday - waiting for G to catch up?
Here’s G: https://invst.ly/qcyf2
Here’s RDS: https://invst.ly/qcyd2
Where one goes the other often follows, it seems.
Having said all that, closing at anything over 116 could prove to be a significant step in G's recovery. And the sp seems destined to keep testing it:
https://invst.ly/qcwky
An entertaining morning with G, which is still on the 'up' escalator but not quite landing permanently on the 117/118 level.
https://invst.ly/qcvyq
A nice 6% to be made earlier for those minded to hop off at the top and re-enter an hour or so later.
I was referring to LCO - always do, except when I specifically say OANDA (which is not generally quoted in the press)
DNO did have a massive rise on Friday but, as I pointed out, was really only making up ground. Yes, some profit taking to be expected.
Yes, I think $40 is a long way up given the current position - almost too much physical oil for available storage. Whatever Russia and OPEC do they can't instantly create a balance of supply and demand.
The opposite price moves of DNO and G were just very striking - and in G's case a bit counter-intuitive given the direction of Brent today, although it does otherwise fit with the chart: https://invst.ly/qcuik
You mean $40 is a long way up, even for Oanda.
Correction - You mean Oanda? $40 is a long way up, even for Oanda. You're an ICE man I think...
DNO as you well know Boyo has risen considerably previously, almost +80% since the end of March (I checked your previous chart btw) expected a fair pullback over there. So interesting, sort of, surprising nah.
You mean $40 is a long way up, even for Oanda.
Interesting to see G and DNO move in totally opposite directions this morning. To say that G's price reflects optimism would be an understatement: https://invst.ly/qctfr
RDS very subdued in contrast.
Buyers of G are clearly making the assumption that OP will soon be nearer to $40.
Over the week since last Friday’s close we can see that G has performed slightly better than its peers in the usual group except for DNO, which stands out by a significant margin at first sight:
https://invst.ly/qc56e
However, a view of the period since 1st of March - when C-19 really started to have a serious effect on prices - and we can see that DNO was largely making up for lost ground and surpassing G in the process.
https://invst.ly/qc5bi
Quite why GKP should now be noticeably lagging the group is a mystery to me. Perhaps it is due to the legitimate postponement of the full results and decision regarding dividend. G, meanwhile, did hit 109 today when LCO was in the region of $33, a ratio of 3.3x so slackening off as might be expected. Why expected? Well because G’s sp appears to have absorbed some of OP’s fall from $50 so I’d expect that to even out as OP recovers.
.......can often result in over confidence and big mistakes....
Yes - overconfidence can be expensive. Fortunately with G no one should experience that.
Mistakes are as big as the trade..... so it's about discipline and only dealing in tranches proportional to the risk you want to take and sensibly spreading that risk. While a 10p change in sp might matter to a day trader in G today, it's not such a big deal if you are averaging over several tranches that you plan to hold until the sp recovers to 150p + .
thanks Boyo, just curious - it's impossible to tell if there's any substance to such movements, it's guesswork and luck if you hold and it continues to rise or indeed you sell and it drops, unless one is in the know obviously.
Feels good when you get it right but illusions of grandeur in the wrong hands can often result in over confidence and big mistakes....
As I've just noted, G's reaction to the OP this afternoon was quite reserved and proportionate (still about 3.3x, which is strong).
The KRG's payments have obviously reassured the market to some extent and appear to have added 10p to the range whilst strengthening OP probably did the rest:
Here's a 5 miute view of G today v OP rebased (not at 3x!)
https://invst.ly/qbp96
Stupid High, bunks?
Well 116 last week was one example. Though the problem with that type of 'high' is that, by the time you've confirmed there's no credible reason for it, the price has collapsed back towards sensible territory.
Today's OP hike to near $36 on the basis of some Trump mumblings was another one - although G's reaction was unfortunately quite restrained because I'd have sold at 120+
I have no complaints!
when is stupid high?