Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Something definitely doesn’t look right here lately
If we can't put in a gain today I'm packing up.
They keep wanting to test this 135-133p level which I'm finding disproportionate but actually this was last tested at the end of May when o.p was at a similar price ($69/70). It held then and moved up with o.p (sort of). Bottom line is we're looking like that monkey f'ing a football again, far from confident but we should move up if o.p does, I've given up thinking the company will do anything to improve our position here btw, any nice surprises, not that we've every seen one, is therefore a bonus.
not a lot of red out there today ..... oh yeah (Look at the subject) of course, it's us. If I didn't know better I'd throw the towel in here, utterly ridiculous how much the market dislikes us - even these debt ridden crazy producers are giving it to us
why do we suck so much...... 135p and down more today than yesterday when the market was carnage - just don't get it.
Punished for not having a terrible finish yesterday I suspect
fared ....
half decent UT for a change 140.8p - not bad at all today considering the backdrop - outperformed DNO and GKP.
My others haven't faired so well ....
Like you I want to see us recover some ground down here, in comparison to our peers and o.p ratio, not looking likely at the moment, DNO is down around half of G, 2 and 4% respectively. Lets hope the yanks give everyone a lift.
Yeah. The whole market in retreat - so harsh on most this morning. G not particularly hard hit by comparison to, say, BP, DNO or GKP. Be interesting when the US opens...
Time will tell Boyo - 138p is very harsh considering where we finished last week, DNO doing better so far and GKP fractionally worse. No surprise but the frustration kicks in when things recover and we don't. So much for Freedom day.
Like Hamilton gaining a couple of seconds per lap on Leclerc yesterday, maybe we’ll see a similar trend with G v the noisy neighbours and others over the next few weeks. Today’s weakness following the OPEC+ news at the weekend was to be expected but some people are still very bullish regarding OP - like this Citigroup fella:
'The market is very tight and a supply increase of 400,000 barrels a day will turn out to be a pittance....... Demand is significantly higher, despite the Covid-19 pandemic exploding in parts of the world, and oil prices are likely to climb much further by the time summer is over'
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/heres-what-citigroup-to-goldman-say-about-the-opec-oil-deal-2419065
I was actually agreeing with Tartine's comments - but most of us seem to have similar thoughts...
Yes bunks, I agree too. Although all companies seem to be failing to see a rebound in sp that 's proportionate to the strength of OP.
If it helps at all, here are some notes to put G's recent price action in context. I think it’s worth noting that G has tracked GKP and Brent perfectly well since the end of May and has actually outperformed DNO and Chevron over the same period: https://invst.ly/vgia9
As we all know, G’s sp suffered a setback between the 12th and 28th of May but the gap between G and the others that opened up has not worsened since then, indeed it seems to have improved slightly. Looking at the same group since 11th Feb, https://invst.ly/vgii2 the divergence between G and the others is easy to spot. At the worst point, G was effectively 33p down against CVX (measured against G’s price scale) but by last Friday’s close the difference had reduced to 20p.
A long-term view of the four, going back to pre-pandemic December 2019, shows that G has outperformed the others for much of the time but is now back within the group:
https://invst.ly/vgiq8
It’s not as exciting as we’d like but at least G’s performance isn’t totally off-track and should improve significantly as Sarta production increases and if QD proves successful.
Agreed Bunks. Unfortunately.
One of the possible explanation (on top of the obvious problem of not getting paid) is that Tawke production has started declining about 2 years ago. The payment issue has been a bit if a smoke screen for it but I would not be surprised if one if the main factor is this.
It would explain why DNO is getting hammered.
This reinforces the importance of getting success with the new fields.
At the moment, tawke is still producing a very substantial amount. If this was to decline rapidly (fir whatever reason??) Then the incentive if the KRG to pay us back would be fairly small.
In contrast, Saikan us producing a lower grade if oil but there is plenty if it and growing. This is how I read it.
Genel has been about project and promises fir years but they have delivered very little, if anything. As a consequence it remains (always has been) a bit of a roll of dice fir a new investor .... no new investors, production under pressure, payment problems = no support for the share price.
As always it could change overnight ... but so far it hasn't.
I am still hopeful it might turn around but I am not holding my breath.
Have a good weekend!
Enjoy the sunshine and don't read about shares!
ATB all.
Yeah but going into the closing auction around 147p you don't expect to finish 144p, that's all about us and our apparent weakness
Yeah - I think you can blame Brent's usefully timed $1.5 dive in the afternoon for that!
Nice little recovery and then another horrible ut... 144.8p
Hi bunks hope you and boyo are well. A lot of things are taking a bath at the moment not just here. Summer volume- some small caps getting smoked
Glad you're confident in the meantime we're getting hammered
Not been watching Genel as much lately but it’s been pretty poorly lately tbf. Normally holds up better than this. Looks like sentiment taken a hit and since that board salary resolution stuff and high kick back from it things have been a bit stale
I'm seriously considering lowering my exit price
Since 2019, you’d be hard pressed to choose between G, DNO and GKP.
G has generally had more time in the sun and suffered fewer troughs:
https://invst.ly/vg42a
They all took a massive slide from March 15th:
https://invst.ly/vg44-
G then saw a big advance over the other two - worth about 20p - prior to May 13th at which point that 20p gain plus another 5 or 10p got wiped away.
Given where OP is, they are all doing sh*t - but so is ‘gold standard’ Chevron, which is not much further ahead of them:
https://invst.ly/vg49g
DNO are arguably being smoked more than G - since the end of May that is:
https://invst.ly/vg3w3
All three on a downward path, but G had suffered the biggest hit in May (not shown here).
It seems set to get worse before it gets better.
Smoked = down more yesterday and up less today lol
Can't think of a word I described, the opposite of getting smoked, I digress. GLA - let's hope op holds up and we get some good news soon eh