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G appears to be champing at the bit today the ‘bit’ being the resistance around 117. But so, it seems, is RDS where the equivalent resistance is about 1480 and RDS arrived at it on Thursday - waiting for G to catch up?
Here’s G: https://invst.ly/qcyf2
Here’s RDS: https://invst.ly/qcyd2
Where one goes the other often follows, it seems.
As I have 90% in oilers companies...RDS is not on the list because of the increased debts recently to keep paying dividends...Genl has performed from its low recently far superior to RDS by more than 40% and paying dividends from big margins of profits....
RDS will have more difficult times a head....
The problem with charting both on the same page is your starting point of comparison which can be misleading......just imo
Correct Hasiba - always essential to try to do valid comparisons. G has performed better than RDS since it hit its low but, of course, it lost much more heavily on the way down. Ultimately they are fairly even since the price crash. One offers less risk the other offers quicker gains. Both offer a good dividend. RDS doesn't have a single hard-pressed client, of course.
I choose to ride both horses (swapping between when advantageous) and, here's the important bit, they are both lining up to break above their respective resistance levels. What are they waiting for? What could they possibly have in common?
https://invst.ly/qc-5z
It doesn't matter much to me which one jumps first - but there may be a chance to switch rides with the profit.
hi hasiba, just wondered are you in rre as well?
Yes....from its “near low” luckily and was going to add more recently but dithered .it is my priority now to rotate more into it and maybe jog. .
RRE results today were reflecting a well run company ,with a big dividends makes it the star of all small cap oilers...just imo
Still holding strong .
Watch out for the Decom costs in RRE hasiba. The high cash balance to some extent factors this in
Well..Genl seems to be a momentum and value share now ...even when oil price goes down ...
Where will G sp be if Oil price at $40+....?150+ or is this a bit of ramping!
It could or should do 150 but doubt it will with oil at this price. I believe Genel is still the best positioned and value oiler on the market (with the associated risks) including all the other names on this thread
150+ or is this a bit of ramping?
Not ramping, Hasiba, but probably the top end at $40 Brent
It may be worth remembering that before Coronavirus and shortly before the KRG delayed payments, before production cuts and before KSA fell out with Russia and OP collapsed, G managed to get to 225p at $62 Brent. The best price it achieved in 2019 was 233p at an OP of $73. Its two twelve month bests v OP could therefore be averaged to 229p at $67. So, in my view, you’d be lucky to see G at more than 140p at $40 Brent or 175p if Brent gets to $50. Still, I won't complain if it exceeds those numbers.
G poised on the edge of that gap to 137 - interesting:
https://invst.ly/qdclg
In theory, G would be rather stretched - is already stretched - v OP but that hasn't stopped it today.
Hi Boyo,
G performance has been quite astonishing, but perhaps in view of their strong y/e results, strong FCF & balance sheet, along with expansion plans, the market has reassessed them and raised to G v OP factor?
Jack
A few shares appear to be hovering near the gap that occurred when the market fell sharply on Monday 9th March, having started to fall quite heavily the week before. However, G has recovered better than the other KRI companies and has effectively caught back up with the majors and the FTSE:
https://invst.ly/qdejp
Having hopped back onto the 'down' escalator today, will G drop back through 116? It's a potential buy-back point for traders who maybe took profits yesterday and should now provide some support:
https://invst.ly/qdu18
A return to the low 90's hardly seems likely - unless KSA & Russia talks go TU.
Jack: I think G's recent performance has little to do with the G:Brent ratio (which has got rather stretched) and is more about anticipation of an OP boost to $40+ . That, in itself, seems to be a potential bubble with minimal global demand and storage capacity brim-full. Spot prices and near futures currently appear to be influenced by market sentiment rather than the reality of physical supply. Odd.
Forgot to add chart showing why I mentioned low 90s -
https://invst.ly/qdu45
Which is the next floor down if G does not get off here, at 116.
Some context for next Tuesday:
On Thursday the five-day moving average for G v OP reached 3.6x which, ordinarily during the last twelve months, would have been viewed as an achievement. Since then OPEC+ has achieved little in terms of reassuring markets or, indeed, of doing anything to prop-up OP, which has consequently weakened - to what extent we’ll discover before markets next open.
On this Discussion Board, 1msn has meanwhile had the temerity to suggest that G might revisit the 80’s and got mocked for his/her trouble. Now, here’s the recent daily chart for G with Brent rebased (green): https://invst.ly/qevxi
Let’s just say that, unless something firmly positive happens regarding OP, there seems little chance of G progressing upwards from Thursday’s doji closing price of 124. Downwards there is the recently converted resistance turned support at 116 which offers some comfort. We also know that there has been Director, Bilgin and rumoured fund buying from the low 80s upward, which might cushion any rapid fall-back.
A 15 minute chart shows there are recently tested levels of support at 82, 90 and 98
https://invst.ly/qew0f
At least, Trump, Putin and MBS are all talking together and seeking to act rationally.
For a while there, after the break-up of the OPEC+ meeting of early March, Russia and Saudi Arabia seemed to have gone "crazy" (to use Trump's word), which, in turn, made investment in oil and oil stocks a pretty crazy proposition.
Yes Ocelot. The price of oil and related shares has recently, more than ever, been influenced by words and policies rather than the physical reality of supply, demand and the practicalities of storing oil until demand resumes. The worst may be over in terms of OP, although there are pundits who say otherwise, and G's sp may well remain above 80p, as the charts suggest, but, as you and I seem to agree, there is a very long way to go before OP is likely to reach $50 again.
No one benefits from crazy low oil prices. As the lockdowns start to lift, OP will shift upwards swiftly, particularly if the supply remains at reduced level. I can’t see G going down to 80p, but if it does, it’ll present a good buying opportunity. That’s my view anyway.
Also, while I respect the technical charts (normally), not sure they work as well in AIM stocks. Ultimately they’re a self fulfilling prophecy, and since most retail investors haven’t got a clue about technical analysis, then that prophecy may or may not be be fulfilled.
Let’s hope OPEC++ sort themselves out and do everybody a favour
I’m reading that The cuts that will be announced from current production levels (not October 2018) are expected to be more than the 15 million bpd?
From Reuters on Friday, I understood that 15% was dependent on US & Canada:
Russia and OPEC said they wanted other producers including the United States and Canada to cut a further 5%.
Cuts from Q1 ave production?
What has AIM got to do with this board?
Since last Thursday's LSE close, Chevron (US Market open today) seems to be settling about 2% down and otherwise tracking OP. Two flavours of Bent shown (NY Crude and LCO Futures). G and the others have naturally not moved so all on the 0% line:
https://invst.ly/qfiqu
That's twice they've run us up to 130p and back, could be a while before we have another go....
There's a gap from 130 to 137 which occurred when the market plunged
https://invst.ly/qftlh
In my view G will not close that gap until the market - the Oil sector specifically - closes the same gap that features in sp's across the group.
G does not logically warrant an sp much above 130 unless/until one is able to anticipate a full recovery to OP above $45, resumption of normal payments and no long-term issues. The market isn't likely to take that view for a while yet IMV.