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Interesting that the pull back from G’s sharp move up to 92 yesterday (1/4/20) coincided with a similar move by Brent, RDS and Chevron. The Oslo market was closed by that stage so the DNO price line is constant here, in the 5minute chart of the day. Perhaps G might otherwise have held on to 90p. Could be interesting today....
https://invst.ly/qbbhx
Yes boyo - Oslo an hour ahead of us, I was rather excited at the time, although they were up 9% on a day of carnage everywhere is fairly suspect - good to see them doing well today too
Fun and games in casino hour, bunks. G js back on the 'up' escalator, although those red lines might need to be tweaked as the day progresses: https://invst.ly/qbftn
Keep an eye on the G:OP ratio: above 3.5 has got some optimism built in, over 4 and the oxygen is getting a bit thin.
Looks as if the algos and robots don’t know what to do and are attempting to keep a lid on it again
We are going in the right direction but needs oil price to be much higher than the current level..$40+ to get the SP to 130+ unless a bid or gas comes along..
Good day today and more to come imv..just a few days more to confirm its strength to move much higher.....oil price big player for now
Genel looking better, don’t think that the market or oil is in anyway out the woods yet, so it’s a balancing act of prospects vs market. Typically this follows market sentiment
I'd have to agree with you on that Leem.
Apart from the gung-ho bullish brigade early on, G certainly isn't breaking upward from around 90p this morning. Quite understandable too....the world is awash with oil it isn't using. Shares in storage facilities is what we should be looking for....
The OP apparently got boosted (temporarily? ) by Trump's vague comments yesterday about the need for some sort of US - KSA - Russia oil production deal - now there's a reliable source upon which to base your investment strategy.
One mechanism the US has for controlling national output is the Railroad Commission of Texas, interesting opinion piece here:
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2020/03/27/Hold-My-Beer-I-Can-Fix-This
Are you in out or shaking it all about Boyo? Lots of volatility and trading opportunities. That blast to 116p was crazy yet today Genel better with payments and oil price up a notch and struggling circa 90p. It’s like tossing a coin in this market
I sold some at the top late yesterday, nearly sold some more this morning but was too slow out of bed. Decided to re-load if it drops back to lower 80s or sell some more north of 98p - but all depending on the chart and apparent direction of the market. I've now got a limit buy set and don't intend to sell today unless the price goes stupid high. Doing other stuff for now. Since I reduced my capital exposure to G and moved more into RDS I'm much more relaxed about G - what will be will be and I'll happily trade the volatility, which is nowadays more prevalent here than GKP.
Afternoon fireworks are getting to be a bit routine around here...
https://invst.ly/qbn30
Boyo.....
"Decided to re-load if it drops back to lower 80s or sell some more north of 98p - but all depending on the chart and apparent direction of the market. I've now got a limit buy set and don't intend to sell today unless the price goes stupid high"
So?
Stupid High, bunks?
Well 116 last week was one example. Though the problem with that type of 'high' is that, by the time you've confirmed there's no credible reason for it, the price has collapsed back towards sensible territory.
Today's OP hike to near $36 on the basis of some Trump mumblings was another one - although G's reaction was unfortunately quite restrained because I'd have sold at 120+
As I've just noted, G's reaction to the OP this afternoon was quite reserved and proportionate (still about 3.3x, which is strong).
The KRG's payments have obviously reassured the market to some extent and appear to have added 10p to the range whilst strengthening OP probably did the rest:
Here's a 5 miute view of G today v OP rebased (not at 3x!)
https://invst.ly/qbp96
thanks Boyo, just curious - it's impossible to tell if there's any substance to such movements, it's guesswork and luck if you hold and it continues to rise or indeed you sell and it drops, unless one is in the know obviously.
Feels good when you get it right but illusions of grandeur in the wrong hands can often result in over confidence and big mistakes....
.......can often result in over confidence and big mistakes....
Yes - overconfidence can be expensive. Fortunately with G no one should experience that.
Mistakes are as big as the trade..... so it's about discipline and only dealing in tranches proportional to the risk you want to take and sensibly spreading that risk. While a 10p change in sp might matter to a day trader in G today, it's not such a big deal if you are averaging over several tranches that you plan to hold until the sp recovers to 150p + .
Over the week since last Friday’s close we can see that G has performed slightly better than its peers in the usual group except for DNO, which stands out by a significant margin at first sight:
https://invst.ly/qc56e
However, a view of the period since 1st of March - when C-19 really started to have a serious effect on prices - and we can see that DNO was largely making up for lost ground and surpassing G in the process.
https://invst.ly/qc5bi
Quite why GKP should now be noticeably lagging the group is a mystery to me. Perhaps it is due to the legitimate postponement of the full results and decision regarding dividend. G, meanwhile, did hit 109 today when LCO was in the region of $33, a ratio of 3.3x so slackening off as might be expected. Why expected? Well because G’s sp appears to have absorbed some of OP’s fall from $50 so I’d expect that to even out as OP recovers.
Interesting to see G and DNO move in totally opposite directions this morning. To say that G's price reflects optimism would be an understatement: https://invst.ly/qctfr
RDS very subdued in contrast.
Buyers of G are clearly making the assumption that OP will soon be nearer to $40.
DNO as you well know Boyo has risen considerably previously, almost +80% since the end of March (I checked your previous chart btw) expected a fair pullback over there. So interesting, sort of, surprising nah.
You mean $40 is a long way up, even for Oanda.
You mean $40 is a long way up, even for Oanda.
Correction - You mean Oanda? $40 is a long way up, even for Oanda. You're an ICE man I think...
I was referring to LCO - always do, except when I specifically say OANDA (which is not generally quoted in the press)
DNO did have a massive rise on Friday but, as I pointed out, was really only making up ground. Yes, some profit taking to be expected.
Yes, I think $40 is a long way up given the current position - almost too much physical oil for available storage. Whatever Russia and OPEC do they can't instantly create a balance of supply and demand.
The opposite price moves of DNO and G were just very striking - and in G's case a bit counter-intuitive given the direction of Brent today, although it does otherwise fit with the chart: https://invst.ly/qcuik
An entertaining morning with G, which is still on the 'up' escalator but not quite landing permanently on the 117/118 level.
https://invst.ly/qcvyq
A nice 6% to be made earlier for those minded to hop off at the top and re-enter an hour or so later.
Having said all that, closing at anything over 116 could prove to be a significant step in G's recovery. And the sp seems destined to keep testing it:
https://invst.ly/qcwky