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sorry - overslept - a few got through
Thanks Ammu, here's one source (does not mention 2020 as far as I can see):
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/032520-iraqs-krg-delays-oil-payments-with-cash-stuck-in-lebanese-bank-sources?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_term=plattsoil&utm_content=edffc0e8-4954-489f-9ec6-9b48f8e76bb6&utm_campaign=oilnews
(does not mention 2020 as far as I can see) - - obviously mentions the budget issue but not specifically Oil Co payments, although the picture is very grim indeed.
Ammu...Lebanese not Lybian bank!!!
The country just defaulted on Eurobonds... capital controls n shizzle...
Lebanon bank 'shizzle':
https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1kwbrjj7pczrz/lebanon-depositor-bailin-39may-be-the-only-way39-to-save-the-banking-sector
Yep. I also think the sp is currently pricing the company at a nominal 80p + the dividend, on which basis it might remain fairly settled provided OP does not fall further. That roughly 3.1x OP +10p .
So, will G continue in the blue trend today? If it does then 90p won't hold....
https://invst.ly/q9buj
you mean intraday or close Boyo? Currently hitting the daily low of 89.48
Was strong but last 2 days this has been battered
That's a 5minute chart so I'm talking intra-day - sorry should have been clearer. Only an opinion.
I have sold 50% of my G this morning. I de-risked just over a week ago and then re-acquired most of it and did some trading on the way. I've now offloaded back to where I was immediately before the results day, 19th.
So, after carefully building back up over the last week, I'm now back down to 40% of what I was holding prior to the OP crash....
With the current KRG situation I think that's about the limit of what I'd want to risk but I don't rule out trading on a day by day basis. With no payments likely, I can't see how G's sp can recover as quickly as others in the market. If I'd known about the Lebanon bank story on Wednesday I'd have ditched the lot at 116.
I agree Boyo. This is now just a gamble as you cannot predict :
1) when/if payments will resume
2) what the effects of the economic crisis (which is still to come)
Praying might be an option for those of you who believe ...
Personally, I am more worried about the more general crisis but regarding Genel it would seem prudent to look at cash and asset preservation rather than being all guns blazing about assets, we will be paid etc ...
The very large rise in the past few days might hint at something extra-"ordinary" happening but it is very difficult to know what ... TO might happen in the end ....
GLA ... Testing times ...
Good trading Boyo. Genel would be a fantastic business. It’s the payments and oil price that is holding it back. They need clarity
Make up your mind ( clown emoji )... I thought it was the management...
well we're up 8pts on the week people...... does it feel like more or less?
Last Friday close was 83.8p - UT 90p on the nose - how about that for in the balance.
Bit tense going into the weekend and early next week but it pales into insignificance compared to all affected by the blimin Virus - Stay safe all. GL
oh - and please have a bit of respect for all human beings on here, humour can play a vital part in dealing with difficult situations but please don't resort to personal insults, especially not at this time.
That's not directed at anyone in particular btw
Dodge, they didn’t do enough over the last 18 months to grow the business or the share price. They bought Sarta and then went to sleep. Steadied the ship. The results were good, and the management team a lot more capable than what is reflected in the share price. Oil prices and KRG being absolute ****** is no fault of genels management. Firmly believe that if they were more active and got investors on side and into the story then this might be knocking around the £1.50 region now. They are too conservative. Take things like payments. They should be moving the earth to get this sorted or have a contingency in place for when (not if) this happens. Different revenue stream or measures to protect the share price. When the KRG do this it craters the share price. They have had many years to come to terms with this. Silence and wish washy statements is the reason this gets smashed
Wednesday was not the first occasion that we’ve seen G suddenly run up to a height and then get rapidly dropped. It reached an obviously suspect price that day and when exactly did news first start to circulate about the Lebanon Bank problem? The S&P article is dated 25th. G’s is an easy price to push and we know people were buying sufficiently to do so….(and I don’t mean people properly declared in RNS’s)
If we look at the comparison chart for the month to date:
https://invst.ly/q9hbw
we can see how this latest sp malarkey has left G poised in no-man’s land between the majors (RDS and Chev) 25% down and the other KRI companies (GKP and DNO) about 55% down, whilst G, at 90p, is about 40% down over the month -exactly in the middle. Maybe 10p of that could be attributed to the divi, which would still leave G at 80p - about 45% down. So it’s about 15p above equivalence with GKP after taking the div value out.
Will the latest shenanigans leave G at a premium to the other KRI companies? It does get rated more highly by some analysts but, after this week, who do you trust? Spikes and rapid fall-backs are a bit too common around G’s stock for my liking, And I hope I’ve already made it clear that I don’t consider that these are in any way connected to the company itself.
And on the issue of KRG payments, all I will say is that when you are clinging to a rope after a disaster, the last thing you need is to find yourself being hauled up by a crippled helicopter.
I’m still invested in G. But it certainly isn’t my main rescue vehicle from COVID19’s impact on my investments.
Looking at G’s performance relative to RDS, Brent and FTSE100 since mid February:
https://invst.ly/qa36u
there is quite a strong correlation between G and RDS with a couple of clear exceptions:
The drop to 54p immediately before the FY results.
The combined drop on Friday and today.
When viewed in this context, the rise up to 116 on Wednesday was consistent with RDS’s behaviour - although it placed G at an extraordinarily high price relative to Brent.
Because it is reasonably imminent and large in relation to the current sp, the dividend declaration arguably added 10p to G’s price - always remembering that this will come back off on ex-div day.
Meanwhile OP has dropped about $2 since G was 54p and the likelihood of KRG payment resumption has, if anything, deteriorated.
So, if 54p represented the ex-div bottom for G nearly a fortnight ago and Brent has dropped a further $2 since and KRG payments are at least as distant as ever, why should we logically expect the sp to be higher than 64p today? Bilgin have been buying, of course, but that didn’t stop the price falling previously did it ?
Market is never logical Boyo. Robots and charts are all that matter these days. Genel have plenty of cash at least (right now anyway) and guess they could make some bargain acquisitions and get away from KRG
'......guess they could make some bargain acquisitions and get away from KRG.'
I wonder what shareholders would make of that, Leem? Sticking cash which might be needed to survive into a 'distressed' company when the cause of the distress is still present and potentially getting deeper. Sounds like a recipe for self destruction to me.
OK, Here’s a fairly definitive reality check on G's sp in relation to others for this month:
https://invst.ly/qabqa
It's the usual comparison for the month to date but with a FTSE100 line and also two flavours of Brent: ICE for June (which shortly becomes the LCO Future) and XBR (NY Brent) OANDA (regrettably not available here) is roughly in the middle. The prices would ordinarily converge again over the next couple of days.
G can be seen to have dropped smartly this morning but (to my surprise) recovered half of the fall, steadying at a level similar to before last Wednesday’s brief spike. This is encouraging as it suggests the market it ‘relaxed’ about G’s current sp around 85 even at historically low levels of OP, so maybe $54 won't be revisited?
It also suggests no real concern about KRG payment issue, as the sp:Brent ratio is around 3.5x which is healthier than it was for most of 2019. That last point is a mystery to me but, clearly the market isn’t as gloomy as me.
Against the FTSE, G has obviously been pretty erratic but since the FY report has recovered rather more than the other KRI producers though rather less than the majors, having edged down in comparison to them today.
G has been the disappointing performer of the pack since Friday's close (unless you happen to have scalped some profits on today's high):
https://invst.ly/qaqgb
Unless last Wednesday's peak was indicative of something significant, it was inevitable that the gap between G and GKP and DNO would close up - and that's what seems to be happening.
Currently settling around 90p methinks - unless more buyers step forward and provided OP doesn't wobble.