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...with chunky divis and a good gamble that they will either split to encourage marketability or get a bid. There is even an outside chance in time that their Indian business could be floated off over there. Right now I am in profit if I sold but with so few, it's a hold at least until £65!!
Bouncing along!
Can it hold and move on from 6000?
It'll be nice if it does carry on rising, but at £60 the yield is dropping to roughly 2% and the sp is putting a lot of faith in earnings continuing to rise which is making me a bit nervous so I've reduced a bit.
The spread is tighter than it appears btw, the price I got for selling a few was in the £59's so the guess that sites make on whether trades are buys or sells isn't very accurate on GDWN.
Unless the sp rises to really silly heights, I'll keep most of the rest of my holding, but will likely reduce a bit more if it keeps creeping up.
BB
Boring Bernie,
I quite understand. Yet, with the Goodwin family buying extra shares even for the grandchildren at up to £60.50, I sense this is a good business to stay involved with.
My last purchase was at £53 and so I take comfort that the family are satisfied with the business and sense there are good prospects ahead.
Well, I've sold a few and taken some profit today.
Time will tell if that was a good move !
WestOfEngland
Partly because of the lack of coverage and the controlling family stake Goodwin's always been a nightmare to value ( I've been in to a greater or lesser extent for ~ 20 years ), though the family's stake allows them to take a very long term view !
I don't think we're currently overvalued ... I'm assuming eps for this FY will be ~250p which, at the current share price of £63 will put us on a pe of ~25. With growth at 20% that's a PEG of ~1.25. If growth continues at ~20% that's not cheap, but it's not obviously expensive either.
It is putting a lot of faith in continuing high growth though. If that growth drops to ( say ) 15% then it starts to look a bit different.
Are we on the brink of sustained medium term ( 3 to 5 years ) growth 9f ~20% per annum ? Maybe. If we are then I can see a share price of £80 to £90 in the next 18 months. We'll know better when this years results come out along with, more importantly, details of the outlook for 24/25.
Until then, for me, it's about risk management of my meagre wad !
Well, maybe selling a few yesterday was not one of my best decisions !
Dear Bernie,
Thank you for your helpful observations.
Its a difficult call yet I am pleased to be a shareholder although, relative to you, I only have 9 years experience.
I am impressed by the family and the team and am excited by the steadfast way they are building the business. I am hopeful that the new activities with Ducoya, Easat and the AVD battery extinguishers will complement the growth potential of the foundries and the defence related operations.
In today's world, moderate, continuing dividend increases will be welcomed and I'd rather have significant capital growth potential with a 2% dividend which grows than a higher yield which is difficult to sustain.
Best regards
I truly expect GDWN to compound at higher rates going forward.
We have been through a high capex environment for some years that will now ease, plus AVD contributing more as they get bigger, plus the commencing of DUCOYA with very high margins plus the possibility of easat finally landing those big contracts they are going into...
I am sure GDWN family will do the best and allocate capital for longterm compouding. Remember, duvelcos market is the biggest they have ever tapped into
Quite remarkable !
Thankfully, I didn't sell the lot a couple of weeks back !
Equally remarkable that the SP is moving so far in the opposite direction! Will not be selling, have topped up a few times, will do so again if price drifts down further.
The SP is all over the place!
It's probably a 'buy' but I'm not tempted ...yet!