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All being manipulated by GDR gravy train management at the total expense of expendable private investors!!!
Just wait and see👀
Roger, TLDR: rocket emoji's????
Funding issue * unresolved
T Kevin - strictly speaking yes, it would be illegal. Do I put it past mms and iis to find a way round it? You bet. Far fetched I know but I’m getting increasingly uncomfortable - aka squeaky bum - the closer we get to some potentially excellent news with still the finding issue , or as far as we know!
It pretty obvious that no genuine II wants to buy into this for real at the moment to me. Otherwise they would have already. It will surely be at risk of going down completely if no RF drawdown announced this week as well. (No one here knows what actually will happen, me included, but you can't assume this is golden silence, and there's not much money (time) left.
Roger - why do you even post such things? Thst not in any way how raising money in a public company works. It would be illegal. Even the brokers af3 split buy from sell side and mm would have no idea of where a broker was in funding, so either you post false info for no purpose or you don’t know how equity markets work.
Oh and Stock is right in that RF don't have any shares at the moment as far as we know.
So, ultimately MyIPA, why do you think this is happening? Are the various mms just starting to buy shares on behalf of a placee now and a deal already done so that on the first bit of decent news any rise would see the forward selling begin? I'm inclined to think so but IKN.
Here's a fanciful scenario: funding deal already done for say 40m shares at a placing price of 8p. (about £2m worth). Hear me out please. Over the next 5 or 6 weeks the mms slowly ramp up the buying of shares all under or at about 5p, holding the share price in a limited range between 4.75 - 5.25p. In the 4 weeks leading up to the news from NICE on July 10th, confirming Full recommendation for CYP2C19, the sp is let go and goes on one of its more sustained rises and actually reaches let's say 14 - 16p. The placee can shift all it's 40m shares easily on strong volume for well over what the mms are currently buying them and handing them over for which is actually approx 5p. The placee goes away happy with as close to 100% profit as possible, GDR happy to have the £2m in the kitty and even share holders happy because we've enjoyed a rise of about 200% up to 15p ish and then the funding is announced at 8p which is still well above the current sp . Job done. Everyone happy. At that point the sp could be left to do its own thing and go where true value sits with GDR generating revenue confirmed from within the NHS and finally gets going with the FDA de Novo application for RNR1.
Told you it was fanciful.
River Fort aren’t selling into any buying to depress it, so if there WERE lots of buying pressure the price would rise.
So my counter to your MM manipulation theory would be to say that there isn’t any buying pressure. The lack of a resolution of financing is weighing on the stock. That’s why it is drifting down.
MM’s just want an orderly market. They don’t have it in for GDR and are therefore manipulating the price down nefariously. If there were serious buying interest the MM’s couldn’t keep it down, nor would they want to. They make their money out of volume and are agnostic about the share’s overall direction.
And anyone looking at LSE would see £26k of sells and just £4k buys telling a very different story.
Thanks for posting folks.
Yup - WINS tick down on 50k shares sold 16.18. Hilarious the movement we had today. Got my popcorn out.
Tally (by eye, confirmed with dummy bids/asks):
435k-odd buys 185k-odd sells.
down 4.88%
lol
4.5p tomorrow.. 8-(
It's as if someone is playing with the share price whilst they wait for news.
I'm hopeful GDR will get the funding sorted and NICE news they require, just seems a long wait.
Love this MM manipulation - so everything has been a buy except:
10.42: 30,000 at 5p (PEEL tick down)
11.07: 7433 at 4.81
13.55: 38,000 at 4.811p
14.14: 50,000 at 4.775p (SING tick down)
Currently about 433k buys 127k sells. only the most recent buys are deemed buys (but my test buys during the days matched all the buys at the time, even the 4.9 buys).
Anyway, passes the time until next news.
GLA
I think in that report it is stated several times that even if they do use Lab tests as often as possible it is expected that GDR's POC test would be used something like 35k times per year. If we get Full recommendation and this is the initial outlook then we will be fine, as even at that figure I think GDR would be making several £m profit. Possibly £2 to £3m to begin with and that would be just from the UK market. the US is further down the track as we all know but numerous countries in the ME don't have such stringent processes to go through, plus if it's approved by NICE and the NHS uses it widely then these countries can and will simply put the test in use, and quickly. No dilly dallying like the FDA in the US!
Together with a steady increase in sales of the RNR1 test revenue can get jolly close to meeting GDR's annual costs and with a tax R & D refund of nearly a £m again next March it's tantalisingly close to being financially self sufficient.
I hope I'm on the right track here but I'm hoping that Cheek, Gino and Russ are all on the same page and waiting for the trigger to be pulled and do a placing on the back of a good old sp spike and avoid at all costs any more RF drawdowns. I know nothing of course but we're close to making it I believe.
Thanks MyIPA. I think your analysis is spot on Roger. We just have to wait and find out which way things go.
Barring something significant and unforeseen the draft full recommendation ought to be confirmed. That really will be dramatic for GDR.
I noted Starres posted a subtle preemptive deramp in that even if it’s full recommendation it’ll be only when a lab test isn’t available, and that the NHS will provide more labs - as if the NHS can snap their fingers and a genomics lab would appear next to every hospital! No, there are only a handful of such labs in the country and they can’t cope with the limited testing at the moment. Time after time in the consultation when this lack of capacity was pointed out, NICE responded that the POC was the solution.
Confirmation on July 10th or sooner will be phenomenal for GDR, and of course once the platform is in wide use, all sorts of other tests can follow.
I’m quietly confident/hopeful. however, I’ve been wrong at every turn previously!
We,LL be bought by a USA pharma company..imho
Company runs out of cash in 5 weeks time - it’s unaudited cash balance as at March 12th was £1.2m
Either Cheek has already lined this up to go private or he knows NICE news will change the landscape very soon and will take another two RF drawdowns to tide us over until the company gets FULL recommendation from NICE on July 10th. Sp surge followed by a placing and more dilution but…most importantly we still own shares in this company.
What’s it gonna be? Buyout, go private or survive to see another day? Or admin even? Don’t think we’ll see that.
Muminr - they were quite obviously bed and isa - well done for safeguarding future investments at this low price as you moved the max no. shares into your ISA for this tax year! I think there is also a £5000 allowance now for UK stocks although I don't know how that can really be enforced or details on it.
Tiger - filtered for being a liar and manipulator
Tiger lied about the £20k sells claiming they was his? I can hardly believe it
So did I , and was dismayed one it became apparent the NICE EVA route actually slowed progress up in terms of getting AiHL to market.
Does seem as if CYP2C19 will be sold far more easily and quickly into several markets if Full Recommendation is published in July. Cheek I think must know it’s a green light or else he’d be taking the RF drawdowns to keep the show on the road. I think there is enough money to keep going for several months if RF provide further funds. Just won’t be very pretty for share holders expecting riches imminently.
Hope this works out well for you muminr. And everyone else invested. It’s ethically a wonderful stock to get behind. We just need another few thousand investors to pile in pronto.
Yes Roger, not very good of Tiger to do that. Nevertheless, unfortunately there's not much to be optimistic about for us LTHs. Cheek is really cutting the funding announcement to the wire.
However, despite my skepticism the CYP2C19 got draft full approval. If this is confirmed in July, or before, things should look better. It's only two months away and I've been waiting over 4 years so far. I always thought AIHL would be our saviour; turns out it could be the clopidogrel test.
Ah good to know. so Tiger was fibbing then. He claimed they were both his sells.
Anyway, certainly made the balance of trades look worse than it was then. Hoping for some sign of life here very soon.
By the way Roger, and others, there were not 2 sales for 20K at 9:04am. That transaction was by Bed and ISA!
II sold 421,074 shares from my trading account and bought them back in my ISA account. I’m happy with the transaction as I feared I might lose more shares despite II’s reassurance.
Really goes to show that the classification of those buys and sells aren’t always correct.
* before NICE news in July...