The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Namibia Quickly Emerging as Africa's Next Oil Hot Spot for Majors
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/namibia-quickly-emerging-as-africas-next-oil-hot-spot-for-majors-300971091.html
From that link this company drilling in Q1 onshore Namibia
https://reconafrica.com/
This is a great diagram showing the wells drilled in Namibia and the depths in relation to the Aptian shale seal. This shows how fantastically short the Welwitschia well of reaching the now perceived target. This is the new concept Total will be testing in the Venus 1 well
https://www.linkedin.com/company/envoi-limited/
Also shows how our licences are up dip..
11 December, 2019
Maersk Drilling signs up Halliburton and Petrofac for the Seapulse exploration drilling programme
https://www.maerskdrilling.com/news-and-media/press-releases/maersk-drilling-signs-up-halliburton-and-petrofac-for-the-seapulse-exploration-drilling-programme
Namibian news due soon from Seapulse and Azinam ?
Also shows the two wells right next to our block, 15 and 10 went below the alpian and found nothing??
So why would we expect any different? It’s probably the reason Tower didn’t bother drilling deeper. 3 duff wells in and around the block has to be bad news. Looks like there is a higher concentration of failed wells here than anywhere else in Namibia so selling another well is going to be a serious challenge I think, particularly after the Tullow duster. I Can’t see it has a chance. There has to be some key reason the Majors are staying away from the Walvis high?
Ummmm... Well 1911/15-1 had Oil shows in Aptian carbonates...
1911/51-1 had no reservoir... therefore no oil accumulation..
Ok so definitely some oil in this part -that’s got to be good news . And the water is not as deep here so what’s the issue? Oil back at $90 might help if they can hang on that long
The current model/concept has only been realised since the Brulpadda discovery at the start of this year
The wells near Welwitschia are not even in the same blocks, these blocks are massive and many times bigger than N/sea blocks. 1911/15-1 is closest and had oil shows (can be seen on the company website)
Tower pulled out of the Welwitschia well, because of peak drilling costs, the well was already at $110m due to a re-spud and many operational malfunctions and mishaps associated with a new drillship drilling it's first well. A decision was taken to pull out after it was estimated to take another $40m to reach the deeper targets. New data would have made that target even deeper than thought back then, so hindsight says it was the right decision
Above the regional seal prospects drilled appear to have suffered secondary migration. ineffective seals/traps.
Some over-pressure data - regional seal
1911/10-1: 1392 psi overpressure in Aptian carbonates at approximately 4000mSS
Wingat Oil Discovery: Overpressure in Aptian at approximately 5000 mSS
Kudu Gas Field: Barremian reservoir 1600psi overpressured at approximately 4400 mSS
Exploration needs to hit targets below these over pressured depths.
You're an optimist Geowiz, daring to question the Jim/Mar narrative. The fact that the management here have done nothing for years (apart from pay themselves well) is irrelevant. Jim has been promising jam tomorrow for a year or more (40p anyone?), so I wonder what's happened there. I did ask Jim a few days ago what his timescale actually is but that fell on deaf ears.
To all intents and purposes this board is simply a dialogue between Jim and Marmited. If your take on the situation differs from theirs you might as well save your breath. They may even be the same person.
Jim I remember it well. Companies like Tower had nothing but a high risk promise and frontier acreage and were trading at £200mm mcap. Now you can drill the same wells for 30mm and they are at £3mm mkt cap. This industry is nuts. So are you mad to get back in or mad not to at these prices?? Rhetorical..
Us shale is now a complete disaster ( more losses there) so unless you want BP for your pension pot this area looks attractive again.
Could you point out where I am factually wrong then Perry rather than emotional criticism?
I have asked more than once....
Have you? I'm merely pointing out that, despite all your posturing (although you're not as bad as Jim) for months on end, nothing has happened. I see nothing in what you and Jim say that makes me believe anything worthwhile is on the cards.
I've certainly asked Jim more than once about his timescale. According to him, success has been just around the corner for months on end. You can't really even be called rampers as you mostly just talk between yourselves.
Yes, I last asked you in spring. I'm not on here to convince you of anything..? I am an old fashioned investor who looks forwards not a 10% / 10 min trader. Pleased you don't see me as a ramper! as you point out... who is there to ramp too? I welcome contrarian views as I know it can protect my wealth. But, yours to date have been emotional hits at individuals. You do have an interest here.. you keep popping up as soon as someone new posts.
Emotional, Marmited? You must have a very stiff upper lip to reach that conclusion. And your comment about "hits at individuals" is risible. For 95% of the time there are only two people on this board, yourself and Jim - I can only really respond to you! I have no recollection of a question from you in the Spring, and no way of checking. However, if you'd asked me a similar question I would have answered in the same way. Your outpourings may be technically correct, whatever that means in a casino like AIM. Whether they are or they aren't, my point is that the banging on about this share being the best thing since sliced bread, which has been going on it seems since Moses was a lad, has not been matched by any positive news. That's it, that's my point. Share price down again today.
Zebbo, thank you for your unsolicited advice. I don't blame anybody for the performance of the share (other than GBP's management) and I do my own research. My point, and my only point, regarding the two permanent occupants of this board, is that they continue to big up this share in the face of a longstanding lack of performance and, in Jim The Invisible's case, despite each and every one of his predictions of good news failing to materialise.
From the Eco bb ......noix =perrystalsis= borderterrier1 on ADVFN Hum bb
There are many other handles and is paid to disrupt bb's
95% of the time is about correct, so what is the issue if Jim and I appear to be the only ones spending our time sharing info and bouncing ideas of each other? Anyone can join in if they wish. I know we have learnt a lot by doing this so i'm not going to apologise for using this BB for what it is designed and intended for. Personally I'd rather it be regularly over a pint but somehow I don't think we live in the same town so this BB will have to do.
I agree with 'aim is a casino', hence the continual shared research so I don't miss something positive or negative that could change my view. I imagine Jim is the same.
I have made a final decision on the history of the company based on other CEO comments such as that from Keith Hill or Daniel McKeown of Azinam who point out the exploration industry was (and still is in many respects) on its knees and any small caps still around have done extremely well to survive.. GBP still has no debt and little cash but I have pointed out in the past GBP is reliant on a farm out to progress. GBP state this themselves.. It is no secret. (Subject to a farm out to just acquire 3D on 29 and the east of Welwitschia).
I have added the words... hopefully, imo, fingers crossed when it is not fact. Any news/research that I see as factual are always accompanied with links. Anyone reading can make their own decisions on the info shared and talked about but if someone posts something I know to be factually incorrect, excuse me for pointing it out but I have committed cash and own shares in the company.
The greater amount of info we put up and bounce of each other is actually about what is happening beyond our licences. It gives clues as we step back and look as to what is happening in the bigger picture. e.g the regional seal, how it affects our neighbours, how it affects us. Understanding what has happened to all drills and the failures in the region is paramount as an investor, after all, there failure could be ours.
The share price is popping up & down a bit in a narrow range but basically going sideways. This is not currently a share for traders but investors who like high risk/high reward, You wouldn't put your house on it.
There is plenty of positive news from the perspective of looking at the region which is FRONTIER, the majors have arrived and will hopefully solve the puzzle. Only 4 drills in the Walvis Basin have drilled through what is only VERY recently been understood as the regional seal. It is virgin territory and right now (unlike previous years) GBP do look promising as our targets are below that seal unlike what I see with our neighbours such as ECO, PCL, TLW, AFE in PEL 30 & 37 for example. Ideas on prospects in this frontier region may have turned 180 in our favour?.. that is what we are trying to discover as this may lead to finally completing a farm out? It is hope based on regional research, recent events with TRP, drill results, drills planned and why and finally on new data/beliefs
Excellent summary by the way M,
Interesting this popped up this morning on Linkedin from Frontier and the E&P summit back in May
ER: ARE YOU LOOKING AT FURTHER EXPANSION?
JM: Well, we have a lot on our plate with the follow-on prospects at Block 11B/12B. Of course, we’re assessing opportunities that we’re familiar with in terms of the play. We’re looking at areas where the petroleum system is working in blocks that have some running room. We’re looking purely at exploration in conjunction with Africa Oil Corp., which is our largest shareholder.
https://www.frontierenergy.network/ceos-picks/2019/6/3/jan-maier-africa-energy-at-africa-eampp-summit-2019
So we can add the Lundin Group, Africa oil, Africa Energy to Exxon and Total looking for additional opportunities but I suspect that the Lundin umbrella of companies 'IF' they were interested in any company they won't budge until a Major/Mid with the funds to drill is involved. Historically that seems the way they do business in Namibia. We know GBP remain open to such an event (as it is written in an RNS Final Results 30th Sep 2019 : Global continues to monitor opportunities which might complement its existing portfolio of exploration assets, and remains open to strategic growth of a more structural nature) and we have the unused 10% placement capacity voted in for a second year ready to go.
PEL 94 gives us that running room and this IMO was acknowledged by the recent addition to the NAMPOA group of companies.
IMO..It really would be naive to dismiss the Lundin group showing an interest here seeing as though our read across to PEL 30 & 37/Cormorant/proven play/thief zones/conduits/migration distance risk are linked to our south east corner.. with running room..
Agreed, would cover all bases for Lundin and they obviously like what they see in Namibia, concidering the amount of interest they have with there various alliances, same could be said for Azinam