London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I might add that 3 of those early buys yesterday were mine. Happy to be on board.
Good analysis here boys. I have just sold SGZ after a nice 100% profit and put the lot in GAL. It was a lesson the way SGZ ramped after the Daily Mail article. Shows how things can so quickly change.
I found the 01OCT post by TT to be in line with my thoughts. This could easily be a 5 bagger within 6 months, 10 bagger within a year or two and x20 if they get to 50koz per year. I have committed 10k GBP here which offers me something life-changing if it comes off. I'm happy for the share to stay quite for a while yet, since I'll add more at this price.
Stealth share flying under the radar.
The group is against mining in Omagh so they will naturally do what they can to try and make something look bad. They say it was a "ghost town" but one of their pictures shows various vehicles and plant.
If the armed police are still on site then they are lucky to have walked away unharmed.
I am sure that there is another side to this story !!
where is the underground footage that they "claim" they had access to?
Edit: 3 shifts in Q4 I meant, not Q3
From a safety and operational perspective this is very concerning and even merits a RNS to clarify the situation:
1) Safety: after all the steps and approvals required to transport explosives in NI, including police escort, the site is seemingly left unattended with front gate to site not locked?
2) Operational: why during the day was no one there? If 2x shifts are working at site, that would imply 16hrs coverage no? And therefore only time no shift might be a night shift? Which in October was the plan not to have 3 shifts in Q3?
Officially until there is an update, Commercial Production was still earmarked as "late 2019". Really doesn't bode well based on that FB post of a "ghost town".
Anyone fancy a mine tour?
Now this is very surprising...
facebookdotcom/CAMIO2018/posts/523217308240759
Anyone fancy a mine tour?
Now this is very surprising...
https://www.facebook.com/CAMIO2018/posts/523217308240759
Correct RR, the physical cash can be used it’s just that the P&L looks worse until stoping commences.
I wouldn’t disagree either with the context of your post. Once Stoping starts a Kearney then Joshua will be drilled underground at all levels to add additional stoping material in early 2021 I presume. After that is is a case of what can be accessed from the current underground levels and what requires a new access ramp. I doubt that will become clearer until later in 2020/2021. Kearney is larger than expected and I think the general feeling is that the other veins won’t disappoint either.
Really do hope early next year we start stoping. We need to get to the kerr and joshua vein asap as well. I think it's too soon to say if they'll build the already permitted second plant for 50k oz/yr and beyond, but they should be in position to make a decision in 2022 or if lucky sometime in 2021. I have a feeling we might get taken out before they go ahead with the 2nd plant...we'll see. Hoping for a big exit in 2022/23. It's possible gold might peak around then. Roland did say they were going to look to spend $1m cdn per year in exploration drilling once they are at commercial production. His focus will be the veins they are already mining. PEA identified their hope to add some 400k oz at elkins, kearney, kerr and joshua (all within immediate u/g mineable veins except elkins). also explore + permit newly discovered kestrel also elkins. Could be many more ozs at kestrel as the vein could be similar in length and depth to joshua. The name of this new kestrel vein was named after ross beaty's holding company which i found so interesting.
I saw that Dalradian attended the denver gold forum last month and presented suprisingly. They didnt allow the denver forum to make their video presentation available to the public online for playback the way every other presenter did. They're still trying to be quiet until permitted. IMO they were there bc looking to raise more money from big us and global funds soon and I think they are also gearing up to go public again once their permit is obtained. Wonder if it will be 1 more year.
Total trader: Even If GAL capitalizes revenue, they're still able to use the cashflow proceeds for continued u/g development? It's just an accounting thing right?
Thank you Gavster.
It does give confidence that Melquart and Milton took up the entirety of the placing - one could argue that they needed to in order to protect their investment but it certainly gives hope that this is the last placing.
I agree with you on the potential for another gold deposit. In addition to the current mine and licence (OM 3 & 9) Gal own 2 other licences OM1 & OM4 as well as a host of exploration licences. Interesting to get your thoughts on possible timescales?
1) 2020 - stoping, efficiency improvements, volume improvements. Some limited underground drilling.
2) 2021 - volume improvements to 30,000 Oz per year, some machinery purchase. Instigate a large drilling plan both overground and underground to increase the resource size. Commence any planning applications for other drill sites.
3) 2022 - Start to move volumes from 30,000 Oz to 50,000 Oz. Continuation of drilling program.
4) 2023 - Commence drilling program at the most promising of the other sites.
5) 2024 - 2026 - As above but with firmed up resources from at least one other site.
6) Sell the company, most likely to Dalradian but of course there will be other interested parties.
Very speculative of course with no real hard data to back it up but it is what I would do to maximise the value of Galantas. Of course an offer could come in at any stage but at the moment that offer might be circa £20m, when the current resource is firmed up (particularly if it gets close to 1.0m Oz) then it would be worth £40-60m. But with another site firmed up and other good potential licences then it starts to move into the bracket of a £70-100m asset.
Still at the moment I would be happy with anything that gives a baseline low of 6p a share and a strong base to move up from !!
Really enjoy your posts TotalTrader.
A little disapointing only 177 hits on youtube as well Gavster. Posted it on two boards.
The Oct 8th Galantas presentation that seems sold out:
https://www.imqs.ie/news/mining-ireland-2/
I hope this last raise was for cushion purposes. It seems everytime Roland attempted to market the company in the past 5 years, it was hit with some adversity like the permitting process, appeal, Police services explosives etc. He always believed in the judicial system and rule of law in NI. It's hard to pump and promote the share price right now. I tried to get in on the last placing as I've done in the past, but I didnt get a response from Roland only to learn a few days after from press release that Melquart and Miton took the whole thing.
Roland started the mine construction development even before the judicial review appeal decision came out. He believed in the rule of law in Northern Ireland when the market counted Galantas out. The market still prices Galantas out, but all should change when we reach cash flow and he should really hire an investor relations/ corporate development staff. All his efforts should be to get us to commercial production right now. From there I have conviction we are going to increase resource and be in a position to double the size of the mine comfortably.
We are in the orphan period in this chart now:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YsiMkxlGvpM/WhL6sO0xzCI/AAAAAAAABto/MK__VCzN5Ew8n6Q822pOdPj7dEdRWHIWACLcBGAs/s1600/Lifecycle-of-Mining-Stock.png
I've done a bit of research on this type of gold deposit that we have- Orogenic. Mainly bc Ross Beaty has been targeting this type of gold deposit in a lot of his deals. Roland said in the past that "he would not be suprised if there was another mine within his license area". It is so true. Orogenic gold deposits occur in clusters ie many deposits within a large +/-50 km area. That's also a reason why down the road Dalradian will want to combine. They also need to get to cash flow as well which is a long process, but they are backed by some very serious players in the industry.
He did say 5k oz anticipated this year, 20k oz for 2020 (so stoping like TotalTrader said), and +/-27koz in 2021. Meaning commercial production sometime close to end of 2020.
Hopefully we get a detailed update soon.
Hi Gavster - like you I am also a frustrated investor.
Not because of the presentation - this was in April at the UK investor show - have a look at other ones at the show, they are all pretty muted with lots of background noise and people walking in and out.
I, like you, am frustrated with the lack of information. Too many times with AIM companies a placement occurs only for there to be silence in the following 6-8 weeks. It really is quite a poor approach. After a placement that is when communication should be at its highest to give investors confidence. We have seen with this share that there was a steady increase in confidence earlier this year, a bit more communication on this board, some good RNS's about progress and all this has been undone with a poorly communicated placement with a resulting large drop in the SP. Now I am still convinced that once stoping commences that we will look back at this SP and the 5p SP with a smirk on our faces but that does not help us at the moment. With better communication the SP may have remained at the placing price of 4.25p or even higher. What we want to know is:
1) What is the placing money used for?
2) When will the mine be cash flow positive?
3) When will stoping start?
Below is my take on these:
1) The placing money is mainly used for working capital. Plant is generally on hire purchase so no need to spend it on that. The placing back in Dec/Jan was supposed to last - the vein has been shown to be larger than expected (great news and I totally understand that this pushes out the timescales - we do not want to waste gold on any of the levels) - however this also means that cash flow is delayed. Again no problem, but communicate it in a really positive light rather than - we need more money.
2) Because of point 1) above and the fact that development ore is expensive to mine/process and contains very little gold we are still not cash flow positive. Perhaps that time occurs when the final mine shift comes on line. Let's not confuse cashflow with revenue. Revenue is being capitalised, I suspect that was an unplanned & advised by the accountants i.e. if the costs are capitalised then the revenue also has to be capitalised. However, it is still cash in the bank to pay overheads. I think cash flow positive will be the back end of this year.
3) Stoping - some time in Q1 next year but I think now the end of Q1. The mill has been running for a long time so there should not need much if any of a ramp up period. So once stoping commences the quantities processed and the gold recoveries should be very good. That means that by Q2 next year we will have some serious revenues and that has to be closing in on the £3m mark with a further good increase in Q3.
What I would like to see though, rather than guessing, is the plan for both getting to stoping and then the annual earnings forecasts - is that too much to ask !!
Opinion: Somewhat frustrated.
177 hits now on youtube.
Lets hope he'll employ a new voice to represent the Galantas for these presentations. Not the most charismatic presentation and constant murmer and chatting throughout. Would be good to see them start to have a proper strategy that appeals to private investors. The price of gold is at it's highest for years, yet we have 10 grands worth of trading in a handful of trades knocking a million of the market cap !
No director buys, no word as to how our income from the gold sales is being spent on the equipment, progress on the mill, no social media, no press coverage, media or anything new on the website.
Come on Galantas. Was this shared by the company to it's mailing lists and others, and promoted on media platforms? The very least, this video should have been pushed on youtube with paid advertising on google, there's plenty of people searching gold at the moment.
Only 130 Hits on Roland's only presentation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXAsnMTLf5Q&feature=youtu.be
Galantas is attending the Mininig Ireland Conference at Radisson Blu Airport, Dublin promoting the Ireland Gold Mining Industry on oct 8th. Dalradian and Conroy are also presenting.
Hi RR, I think it was just a private trade. Mequart & Milton would have taken the placing price of 4.25p so I guess they are holding along with their other shares in Galantas. Maybe somebody who did not get to purchase shares in the placing and took the opportunity of a lower price? But I do agree with your comments that it is very coincidental that such a large trade occurs shortly after the placing.
A weird trade indeed. miton sold 3.6 m shares probably to a party they know or pre-arranged on the open market. Not sure who the rest was as it hasnt been publicly reported yet. If it was also Melquart selling the other 3 million shares then it would seem they both working together to distribute a small position to another fund?
Ie Melquart and Miton act together maybe should be treated as one.
Well that is two very large trades today down as unknown exactly at the mid price. I would say they are buys - i can't see the MM's offering that price to buy such a large quantity. Any thoughts?
Hi Gavster, I think it sits in accounts receivable (end 2018 = $109k, end of June 31st = $532k). In other words, revenue is booked at the time of raising the invoice but obviously cash is not received until the money is in the bank. Loan payment is an instantaneous transaction that immediately comes out of cash flow. So the cash has not been received so it has not been paid to Ocean Finance.
Most of the Receivables are due within 3 months. It is not unusual for it to take 3-6 months to receive payment from the date of concentrate shipment.
A little strange to be capitalising the revenue until development is complete, development costs - absolutely, but revenue?? There must be an obvious benefit to doing this because it means that we will not have revenues on the P&L until Q1/Q2 2020 - and as we all know with AIM companies that people like revenue !!
It's a sit and wait game I am afraid at the moment. I would like it all to happen much quicker but realistically we have a 6-12 month wait ahead of us in my view. I hope I am wrong and AIM has a tendency to spike shares when we are least expecting it - so I sit and wait.......
If the concentrate sales achieved $460,000, then surely we should see exactly how much and where this money has gone in these accounts, especially when only $15,000 has been paid off to the Ocean Partners loan. Shouldn't the shareholders know exactly how much and what's happened to their concentrate revenue ?
From the pdf
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7025J_1-2019-8-20.pdf
"Shipments of concentrate to Ocean Partners UK Ltd commenced early in the second quarter. Concentrate sales provisional revenues totalled US$ 460,000 approximately for the second quarter representing approximately 154 tonnes of concentrate. However, until the mine reaches the commencement of commercial production the net proceeds from concentrate sales will be offset against Development assets."
"Earlier in 2018 Galantas announced that its operating subsidiary, Flintridge Resources Ltd. has signed a concentrate pre-payment agreement and a loan facility agreement for US$ 1.6 million (CAD $ 2.012 million) with Ocean Partners UK Ltd., a United Kingdom based company, together with an increased, on- demand loan facility of £600,000 with G&F Phelps Ltd. Repayments of the Ocean Partners loan are made against deliveries of concentrates which commenced in the second quarter of 2019 resulting in US$ 14,908 (CAD$ 19,131) being repaid during the quarter. The maturity date of the Ocean loan facility is December 31, 2020."
Edit: ignore my note on the finished inventories line item in 3), had number of PDFs opened and was looking at wrong quarter. However the query on update on development ore shipments and revenue from these still needs to be answered. Back in a video interview in Q4 2018, I remember Roland mentioning the 1st shipment of development ore was due to be shipped imminently. I can't see this anywhere in the Q4 2018 or Q1 2019 results.
We now of course have 3-4 development ore shipments (100tns) - these should show up in Q2 results.
All - thanks for comments back. I would like to disagree with myself too as Galantas has all the hallmarks of a nice little future operation and I feel some affinity to it being only 45mins from my wife's family home. Make's a change thinking about investing in a gold mine in UK when all the ones I've ever invested in are in politically unstable jurisdictions.
With gold going throw the roof and GBP at rock bottom reducing GAL's eventual AISC costs, it's the perfect scenario for GAL.
So in this context the placings are incredibly frustrating, particularly in the sense that most operations this far in advance, with proven business plan, assets as collateral and revenue stream with agreement in place with a refiner, could easily negotiate a loan with a bank - the remaining Capex can't be that much this far advanced. Gone are the absurd days where GAL agreed a loan at LIBOR +8.75%! There would be Irish and UK banks biting their hand off, offering a reasonable interest rate. The last 2 placings could have easily been avoided, with a bank loan instead.
They could have framed the need for a placing/ bridging loan so much better:
1) Extension of veins in development phase positively impacting long-term Life of mine.
2) Optimisation of machinery - sounds a bit business speak to me, but at least flesh it out a bit more to confirm how it will improve Opex/ AISC.
3) Provide update on development ore shipments. Where has all this revenue gone? In Q1 2019, they had $4.3m of finished goods in inventory - it was zero in prior quarter so I assume these are the concentrates ready for shipment. Whilst they "recognise" the revenue upon shipment, I assume they may not actually get paid said revenue until it arrives and is refined in News Brunswick. With other companies I've invested in that ship concentrates to refiners, sometimes delay from shipping to refiner to finally getting paid once concentrate is processed can be 4-5 months. At least this would provide confidence there is a lot of delayed revenue to hit the books.
4) Provide update on timeline to commercial production, with remaining milestones.
Just my 2 cents for this evening, apologies for rambling post.
They are paying off the Ocean Partners loan facility as they ship the concentrate. They said they needed to do a financial analysis if more funds needed to be raised and now probably forsee a small shortfall early next year. Or it could be just an insurance raise. I can live with 7.8% dilution, but do hope there won't be anymore suprises. All time high in Gold / UK pound. It's time to get rolling.
5k oz production by end of 2019
20K oz production by end of 2020
27k oz in 2021
2020/2021 I see them trying to expand life of mine & increase resource.