Really do hope early next year we start stoping. We need to get to the kerr and joshua vein asap as well. I think it's too soon to say if they'll build the already permitted second plant for 50k oz/yr and beyond, but they should be in position to make a decision in 2022 or if lucky sometime in 2021. I have a feeling we might get taken out before they go ahead with the 2nd plant...we'll see. Hoping for a big exit in 2022/23. It's possible gold might peak around then. Roland did say they were going to look to spend $1m cdn per year in exploration drilling once they are at commercial production. His focus will be the veins they are already mining. PEA identified their hope to add some 400k oz at elkins, kearney, kerr and joshua (all within immediate u/g mineable veins except elkins). also explore + permit newly discovered kestrel also elkins. Could be many more ozs at kestrel as the vein could be similar in length and depth to joshua. The name of this new kestrel vein was named after ross beaty's holding company which i found so interesting.
I saw that Dalradian attended the denver gold forum last month and presented suprisingly. They didnt allow the denver forum to make their video presentation available to the public online for playback the way every other presenter did. They're still trying to be quiet until permitted. IMO they were there bc looking to raise more money from big us and global funds soon and I think they are also gearing up to go public again once their permit is obtained. Wonder if it will be 1 more year.
Total trader: Even If GAL capitalizes revenue, they're still able to use the cashflow proceeds for continued u/g development? It's just an accounting thing right?
Really enjoy your posts TotalTrader.
A little disapointing only 177 hits on youtube as well Gavster. Posted it on two boards.
The Oct 8th Galantas presentation that seems sold out:
I hope this last raise was for cushion purposes. It seems everytime Roland attempted to market the company in the past 5 years, it was hit with some adversity like the permitting process, appeal, Police services explosives etc. He always believed in the judicial system and rule of law in NI. It's hard to pump and promote the share price right now. I tried to get in on the last placing as I've done in the past, but I didnt get a response from Roland only to learn a few days after from press release that Melquart and Miton took the whole thing.
Roland started the mine construction development even before the judicial review appeal decision came out. He believed in the rule of law in Northern Ireland when the market counted Galantas out. The market still prices Galantas out, but all should change when we reach cash flow and he should really hire an investor relations/ corporate development staff. All his efforts should be to get us to commercial production right now. From there I have conviction we are going to increase resource and be in a position to double the size of the mine comfortably.
We are in the orphan period in this chart now:
I've done a bit of research on this type of gold deposit that we have- Orogenic. Mainly bc Ross Beaty has been targeting this type of gold deposit in a lot of his deals. Roland said in the past that "he would not be suprised if there was another mine within his license area". It is so true. Orogenic gold deposits occur in clusters ie many deposits within a large +/-50 km area. That's also a reason why down the road Dalradian will want to combine. They also need to get to cash flow as well which is a long process, but they are backed by some very serious players in the industry.
He did say 5k oz anticipated this year, 20k oz for 2020 (so stoping like TotalTrader said), and +/-27koz in 2021. Meaning commercial production sometime close to end of 2020.
Hopefully we get a detailed update soon.
Investment case: Not sure how it plays out thats why need to diversify. So many things can go sideways. A good part of it is under MC and Mellon hands. It takes 2 sides to make a deal.
It is definitely not Primed ready for launch...and calibre has to come to us. How do you even say something like that with a straight face ?
I did sell half...im not happy about taking that loss.
Who in this chatroom is Friends with MC?
Too much time on my hands perhaps. Passionate about the companies I own especially this one bc its the only loser and possibly nowhere else to vent. I guess you dont like the case studies WG. I should stop posting to allow u and your pals to continue your optimistic promos. Tho MC would be so happy about that. He wouldnt have to respond directly to this board. He was probably sweating quite a bit tryng to update his slides before beaver creek. Tough task. He definitely didnt want to explain again to the audience that the mine plan layout slide was still in spanish (how many years in a row?). Maybe my posts keep him in check so he cant get away with the things he's been doing over the last 10 years. It's time to reward shareholders. Trying to promote change WG. Are you even a shareholder?
ELion Yes good deposit...similar to the ones Lundin had at Redback Mining imo. This deposit can probably do similar, question is how long will it take to get there coinciding with the gold cycle end. When the tide leaves, it spares nobody. Redback created lots of value in a bull market in the following yrs after 2 mines were built bc they consistently increased resource and production ie cashflow. They earned a 10X exit to Kinross and timiing was impeccable. They didnt talk or try to pump share price...they went out and did it. I observed that Ross (Ventana Gold & Pan American Silver) and Lundin (Redback) were THE ONLY two mining billionaires that exited all or most of their positions prior to the 2012 gold crash. Nobody else was able to see it coming. Timing is part of their game and they both re-bought back into gold projects close to the bottom of the cycle.
These deals and big exits need savvy leadership. Guys who can combine forces or know how to extract the most from a bigger co. Im told Lundin is a genius when it comes to that. If u look at Equinox - the 3 way merger that combined the 3 companies into one involved the followng driving guys for their respective companies: Richard Warke. Lukas Lundin/David Lowell and Ross Beaty. Or Kirkland Lake's Eric Sprott w/ the Newmarket Team merging together. All heavy hitters combining. That's the reason why a combination was done with B2 and Calibre/Newmarket guys. Synergies and working relationships within industry. Reputation precedes - guys who have all created serious value in the past in gold mining. Got to be able to work together. I know MC can see this now since he got played badly by B2Gold. IFC also put us in this hole for a reason. If Lundin was driving this ship, he would have bought IFC out himself. I saw him do this at Lundin Gold 6 or so months ago - some fund wanted to liquidate $5m worth of Lundin Gold stock. Lundin's holding company bought them out entirely so that the stock price would not sink by being sold on the open market.
Lundin buying only $4m into the Calibre placing was a turn off for me unfortunately. If he was really serious, he would have taken $20m out of that placing to match similar percentages as other companies he owns, drives, and obviously cares about more. Nicaragua isnt part of his redback 2.0 plan.
Just looking for my other half back ultimately. I cant control what MC does. The fate of Condor is in his and his buddy Jim Mellon's hands. If they want to wait and do nothing then we will all have to wait. The cash i got back I dispersed more into Ross Beaty's exploration companies that continue to outperform. Those management teams consistently buy their own stock on the open market to support the stock if they feel it's undervalued or falling too much (Goes to Ross' core philosophy of respecting shareholder's money this way they always come back).
Bankable feasibility study is what lenders want to see to determine mine financing terms. Infill drilling probably required in order to minimize risk to lenders which costs money. Lundin usually converts almost all the inferred material into M&I in order to get the most favourable financing terms. Look at his bluestone co. They finished their bankable feasibility earlier this year. They have over 5 lenders looking at their data since then and will announce a financing package q4 2019 or early q1 2020. The process takes time on top of construction time.
IF Condor was serious about building the mine they would have started bankable feasibility work ($5 mill by itself) right when they got their permit in August last year. Time is everything. If you sit still, your just trying to buy time and then you've already shown your cards that you're looking to sell. Remember "shovel ready".
My guess, in reference to 24 months production, is MC is still hoping for toll deal with Calibre over the next 2 years (hoping they fail). also imo as he mentioned his other option is if Randy Martin can figure a way to get a small used mill at La India. We'll see if they can get it done and how the market also government responds to that down the road if that's the case.
Page 5 of Condor Slides. MC's section. All other company CEOS along with chairmans show their historical achievements and all the other gold companies they've worked for in this section. MC has none prior to Condor and now he wants to be a Mine builder and operator? I dont think so.
"I reckon things are being primed and ready for launch...as far as I can see it the only way they can achieve their stated objectives and timescales is by working with CNR."
Always so optimistic WG.
Lets revisit this next year shall we.
Barkerville Resources just got purchased by Osisko Gold Royalties yesterday. They had a capex of $300m CAD and they did not want to dilute shares to build mine so converted their shares to osisko at a not so great price, but at least they can ride the remaining part of the cycle with Osisko shares. Osisko has a lower cost of capital to build the mine. What I wanted was for our shares to be converted to Calibre ones and let them take us to the next levels instead of solely hoping the gold price rises under crap management. This wont happen. At least not anytime soon. I dont like our options personally for all the reasons I mentioned in past (and I've written too much already). IFC is not lending condor money with its current management team that has never built a mine. Time will tell. MC has been at this for 14 years. This is one of Ross Beaty's biggest dogs in the portfolio I noticed. Following him and Lundin hasnt been easy, but occasionally you get a couple home runs to make up for the poor performers. More diversifying in the gold space I guess is the reason I took some off the table.
Confidentiality agreement was signed with B2Gold. Clive Johnson no longer runs that show for La Libertad and El Limon. Russel Ball, Doug Forester, Greg Smith and Blayne Johnson call the shots. guess it doesnt hurt to dream of a toll agreement. But if you study people and their history you can figure out what their up to. They have their own team of well respected in the industry Geologists (executives) that have performed their own due diligence on the two mines for expansion possibilities. They put $6.5m of their own money to bet that this is the case. Can they give condor 40-50P on a buyout? Maybe. Would they want to go higher? probably not. Is 50P good enough for MC? Hell no - he's probably looking for a retirement sized payout if he is going to agree on anything. So both will go their separate ways until someone is willing to come to the table.
Plan was always to sell the company. Very hard to raise the $130M esp under management. But b4 that you need a bankable feasibility study for a lender to fund the construction which is suppose to cost up to 5 million CAD if I recall? How are we raising THAT? MC is reluctant to dilute and NO timeline for that so what are we doing here (waiting for the gold price to rise)? These small private placement raises every 6 months are simply to fund MC salary and other staff along with the social costs per month at the La India community.
I would be much more bullish if Ross Beaty were to talk about MC the way he talks about his Osino CEO, Heye Daun. Start at 1:14 for what Ross says. Note he was saying good things about Heye BEFORE the discovery was made.
Its a lot easier to permit an already producing mine fyi. Spoken to key insiders and the words were "dont count on any type of combination". While MC is in the dark in lala land thinking he can get a toll deal. I really believed him nearly a year ago when he mentioned possible tolling, but for him to continue to mislead investors now re tollmining is garbage. Calibre has NO interest. Normally CEOs dont release this type of information to the public until there is something definitive. That's the normal practice. In this case the point was to try to PUMP share price which failed miserably. the constant mention of 5m oz district again misleading. Do it dont say it. Calibre said they will be patient with any M&A. It means the same as what Clive Johnson said "NO CRAZY PREMIUMS".
ELion - B2 sold their mines because they've been told to divest Nica assets to prepare for a takeover/merger. My guess is an anglogold type or another mid tier combo. Insiders agree with me on it. Within the Canadian mining circle MC has a bad rep thats all i can say. People dont want to deal with him. He's been trying to extract the highest price for this asset with no success bc he cant let go and too unrealistic. I waited patiently for the permit of the mine only to see the stock do nothing and then IFC sells out. Gold price already moved ! CNR barely moved. Only Jim Mellon buying - nobody else. Something obviously going on behind the scenes. Said this many times MC isnt going to build this mine. 24 months to production is misleading again by the CEO.
My own assessment of situation: Only way moving forward is massive dilution, maybe hope that Calibre fails in their big drill program only then they might come to the table for toll mining, or hope the gold price goes to the moon. dont like the options. A coupe was attempted and turmoil created. these things happen - just have to live with it and cut loss sometimes. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. I'll Live with it.
Does anybody know if RANDY MARTIN has the capacity source for toll mining in the area? I was hoping MC would mention something in relation to the new shareholder, but nothing.
Ryan King is a solid exec and he is only the VP corporate development. The top Management team is really high echelon.
If you study their track record at Newmarket, they created serious value by increasing resource at an already producing mine that "seemed" exhausted. same as what they intend to do here. It's about immediate increase in cashflow. Not 2 years out 4 years out. Immediate. That's what creates real value in shareprice. They are going to start an aggressive 45,000m drill program to expand their resources and improve aisc. Their focus will be then to merge with an already producing company somewhere in Latin America (probably outside of Nicaragua) to form an even larger producing company probably targeting high mid tier producer.
For MC to still talk toll refininig with B2 illustrates to me that he hasnt had a meeting with Calibre yet. They wont give him a premium and they are well aware of the way MC operates. He is suprised that they raised the funds to close. Honestly wouldnt be suprised if IFC (or associated capital source) helped fund their closing. MC's office being at St. James area should KNOW what IFC as a shareholder means in the mining game. I hear IFC is a candidate to fund Lundin's Bluestone Resources mine construction in Guatemala (Keep your eye on this one and compare the progress of Bluestone vs Condor bc they are currently at the same place right now - permitted waiting for financing). Pierre Lassonde said best: The money goes to the people to build mines that have done it in the past. It was nice MC listened to this chatroom and finally updated his presentation slides.
Not too pleased with all the new info. sold half my entire position (must thank Jim Mellon for some support in the recent share price) and hoping for a break even for the remaining half. Really do hope Randy Martin can pull a rabbit out of the hat - dont know too much on the guy. Luckily I was in very early at Osino Resources to more than make up for this loss.
Only 130 Hits on Roland's only presentation.
Galantas is attending the Mininig Ireland Conference at Radisson Blu Airport, Dublin promoting the Ireland Gold Mining Industry on oct 8th. Dalradian and Conroy are also presenting.
A weird trade indeed. miton sold 3.6 m shares probably to a party they know or pre-arranged on the open market. Not sure who the rest was as it hasnt been publicly reported yet. If it was also Melquart selling the other 3 million shares then it would seem they both working together to distribute a small position to another fund?
Ie Melquart and Miton act together maybe should be treated as one.
I heard they have 80mill already spoken for and hoping to have remaining subscriptions in 2-3 wks to put it to shareholders for vote. They anticipate no issues with the votes. I dont think they will do a deal with condor this year anymore. I know their objective is to find more oz's at El limon and La Libertad and achieve a re-rating by increasing mine life/cashflow. Their betting that they will outperform condor in share price in the near future. Makes sense that they would want to try offering their re-rated expensive shares for our cheap shares down the road. Normally acquisition targets outperform the acquirer, but with MC at the helm who knows.
All my other gold cos. listed on TSX are up some 40+% since september last year (not condor obviously as its been the dog in the porfolio). It seems the algos do not like Gold in LSE for some reason and definitely keeping CNR below consitent 19.5p. MC did mention early last yr that he regretted not initially listing in Canada instead of UK - perhaps its because of the algos and their programmed "hate" for gold.
BTW Condor and Calibre (along with all players) both attending Beaver Creek conference in Denver in 1 months time. Hope they will have discussions. MC hasnt made any updates to his Walt Disney's presentation slides yet tho. Been almost 3 months now.
They are paying off the Ocean Partners loan facility as they ship the concentrate. They said they needed to do a financial analysis if more funds needed to be raised and now probably forsee a small shortfall early next year. Or it could be just an insurance raise. I can live with 7.8% dilution, but do hope there won't be anymore suprises. All time high in Gold / UK pound. It's time to get rolling.
5k oz production by end of 2019
20K oz production by end of 2020
27k oz in 2021
2020/2021 I see them trying to expand life of mine & increase resource.
How do you guys see Brexit & the likely hard border at NI & Republic of Ireland affecting the Omagh mine operations?
I get the sense investors are waiting to see how this plays out before taking a position in Galantas.