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carvegyber - It could well be 40% up, I'm being deliberately conservative as there may be a build up of precious metals awaiting sale. I would not be surprised to see a sizeable increase of precious metals on the balance sheet therefore. It may be minimal in which case revenues will more accurately reflect production during the period. Just something to be aware of IMO.
Quite how FRES is trading at these levels frankly blows my mind!
JMT
Thanks
The only thing I get from the put/call options is the future mood of option buyers ..if they are more heavily in call then they are optimistic of course ...so the SP reads across from that ...and vice versa ....
but I dont use them often enough to get a proper understanding of the numbers
Sharem, interesting your figures. I have on my fag pack that half year revenue would be up 40% YOY..
if your freecashflow of $600m is for half year, that would be about right. 2021 will be a very good year and if PM prices starts moving up and production exceeds guidance, then £12. Meanwhile, it is really good to see the 800s again and very please I won't have to hear the ridicule of Perma Bear.... LMAO
Hi poker, it wouldn't be via options by via swaps. Archegos style. Its the same thing in practise as being short say 500k shares, but you don't have to report. You have the same risk profile.
Options skew indicates what people are prepared to pay for puts over calls, but i have never been able to work out anything of use from that.
Ok that's 800p breached now for 900p.. payback for shorts.. smile..
"I would have thought all the shorts will be via derivatives that they do not have to report"
Very good point JMT1234
.....I must see if I find a list and see if they have moved from more "put" options into more "call" options....maybe that is what traders are looking across at
I find those option tables quite difficult to understand...anyone good at them ?
nice to see we are up 6.66% lol
I would have thought all the shorts will be via derivatives that they do not have to report. Post GME no one wants to wave a flag saying that are vulnerable to having their nits squeezed. We know this one can move fast. Lets see where it ends up today and then more importantly after results day.
Now having a 2nd go at breaking 800 today.. its either going to happen today or tomorrow, so might as well make it today chaps.. ;-)
Does anyone know if the financial results next week will include an updated dividend expectation?
Excellent set of half year results!
Silver production of 14.9 moz up 17.9% on Q121 and 9.6% higher than Q220.
H121 silver production of 27.5 moz up 2.7% vs. H120.
Gold production of 200.2 koz down 12.3% on Q121 but 8.6% higher than Q220.
H121 gold production of 428.4 koz, up 12.3% vs. H120.
By-product lead and zinc production up 6.8% and 7% respectively on Q121, and marginally up on Q220 figures.
H121 by-product lead and zinc production increased 5.5% and 8.5% vs. H120 respectively.
The outlook for the second half remains unchanged - "on track to meet our 2021 full year guidance of 53.5 to 59.5 moz of silver (including Silverstream) and 675 to 725 koz of gold."
Half year report expected shortly should deliver 20-25%+ revenues on last year given average silver and gold price in H120 were $16.8 and $1676.8 per ounce respectively. We should be looking at a roughly 50% increase in sale price of silver and 8% gold. Combine that with rising production across the board.
It will be interesting to see how the cost base has changed over this period. I would have thought cash-flow will easily pip half a billion dollars this time around, perhaps coming in around $600m.
Supercharger
I have been in the belief that the Autumn will see better gold and silver prices....I am all in and ready to wait..... ..bit annoyed to see that drop from 795p though..that looked quite a tight ridge...but... ..anyway... we are back now
Good luck to all who have got their positions set and ready ..let's see how it all plays out
Perhaps a case of Life imitating chArt imitating Life? :-) 745 was the bottom target on the chart - lo and behold, look where it just happened to bottom out last week.. AKA a complete swindle if you ask me.. hope no one sold out at that completely fabricated false level.. it was abundantly clear with PM prices and improving covid situation that FRES was going to make nothing but big profits this year.. should never have reached 745 at all.. ridiculous.. they were all loading up at that level (as a retail investor you couldnt buy for large periods of time while the II's filled their buy orders / started going long )..
regards
T123
It is as if the City boys held the line at 795p ..and then decided to drink tequila and throw shares in a pot to see who could reach the bottom and then have a race to buy them all back again ..cocaine to the winner :-)
Tester, you are right. In times of high PM prices, the producers can pay out very high divis. Look at Newmont, Poly, CEY.
FRES seems focus on developing their licences rather than acquiring and frankly, I see no point in doing so as they will all be wanting to mark their reserves to current PM prices. Future looks bright too. FF a year a 2, gold may be an entirely different beast from now if real rates stay negative or even go deeper negative.....
Sorry to interject here - just on the profit numbers being forecast - I see a few analysts estimating 90c EPS in 2021 for FRES compared to 45c last year (i.e 100% increase, wow). FRES have a 33%-50% divi profit share commitment (this year it was 50% and with at least a $1Bn cash pile, I cant see them reducing that) then the dividend here could increase from 26c to around 50c per share - at these levels thats a 5% dividend return.. one of the top 10 on the FTSE and outperforming the index itself.. And I know FRES doesnt have a history of special dividends - but if they are throwing out so much cash with silver at these prices ($25 vs $12.40 AISC) then is that a possibility as well? So an even better return..
Surely this has to push back up towards 900 next week if the financials are as good as the production figures (and why wouldnt they be)
Just my 2 cents worth, sorry
regards
T123
Hi Carve, what blows my mind is that those numbers you give are not unrealistic. They have been puilling back on Capex for a while and really could post a crazy profit number if they wanted to. What i really really dont understand is who cant work this out for themselves and thus has been selling / shorting this name? It has been the right trade in the last 6 weeks but running it this close to earnings if you want to now get long or close a short you are going to move this name by 5% plus if you have any decent size of position. For an institutional player that would be a million share or so.
I have decided to get my calculator out too. I think the H1 21 revenue will be up $400m over H1 20. Considering EBITDA of only $469m in H1 20, 21 would be almost double. Now the humdinger comes from the profit increase. Profit for H2 20 was only $56m and $71m for H1 19. If you were to add $400m directly to $56m, this would be $456m which is 800% increase! Of course from that you would deduct what ever cost increase there was such as increase exploration and admin but I don't see that as a massive increase. Call it 700% increase say!
OMG
This is in many ways a strong indicator of results. They went back to their calculators with the production figures and realised that this in very undervalued so they buy!