The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Looks like SILJ etf has been bought by Amplify ETFS and changed the composition. FRES holdings are 1,050,000 shs. If they held 0 before ( cant find the info) then to get hold of 1million share you have to bid the stock up 10%. For an exposure that is a rounding error to any major fund. For the largest listed Silver miner in the markets. What happens when a major fund wants to get exposure to 10 million shares in a hurry? I am going to wait for that to happen.
I think there was a SILJ rebalance in which i assume they added FRES. Cant find exact numbers, but lets say they bought 500k shs yesterday. To get that done they had to move the price up close to 10%. Think about that. Now what happens when silver breaks $30? No idea when it happens but with US deficits exploding it will happen and this SP should go absolutely mental.
If silver carries on like this and hits 28 or low 30s by the summer then the SP should play some serious catch up. £12-14 is quite probable under such a scenario. All the ingredients exist for a PM melt up at some point and even maybe an investment mania. ATHs in this name would then be on the cards. The Chart shows £23 as a high give or take and when silver has a run at $50 unless oil is at $150 i would expect FRES to be trading at ATHs.
The jobs report was a joke. Headline beat on the front month , but previous months revised down to become what would have been headline losses. I think these numbers are being managed for their PR effect and it is certainly working in the shortterm. GLA
SP up 4% today no idea why, but this article is one that could be very important.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/blackrock-ditches-60-40-portfolio-014017571.html
I quite agree slater, but there will be a silver price at which FRES gets bought and bought heavily in anticipation of better earnings. H1 2022 average sale price of silver was $22.80. $30 silver (sustained) would be about 30% higher and probably enough to encourage some capital into the space with expectations of a run to ATHs.
I would guess $30 will be the trigger for many to jump in. Some anecdotal accounts have virtually no institutional interest in miners with this move higher in gold and silver, which IMO is very bullish IF prices continue to rise. The price of GDX, SILJ etc would seem to confirm that there are not many large buyers out there. The real move will come once those players buy into the space and it will be obvious because those ETFs and names like FRES will explode higher. All stocks move on capital flows and as of yet there doesn't seem to be too much of that going on. I like this as it gives time to accumulate more at prices which will seem cheap once silver crosses $30. This SP rallied 80% in 2 months back in 2020 and i would expect the same once the big players enter the space. In fact i would expect more than 80% as $30 has been such a big level once it goes it should really go and spike towards $35.
GLA and as always DYOR
PM miners shares in general are equities first and PM derivatives second. There is still a lot of fear in the market holding things back. Once the greed phase kicks once gold takes out its $ high ( having already take out its highs in euros, yen, AUD gbp etc etc) then it will scream north. The conditions are right for it, but I have no idea when it will happen.
GLA
https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP/status/1621514507867787265/photo/1
the seasonal adjustment figures will be huge in this. there is no way that 517k jobs were created in the way that the man on the street would agree with. these jobs only exist on a spreadsheet and in a data release.
This huge volatility is encouraging. That huge slam shows how hard they need to defend and they cant defend when there is only paper left. I am sure they have many more tricks up their sleeves and this name will continue to be painful until suddenly it is not. GLA
The main reason I am in FRES is because I believe in the $50 narrative and i would speculate that most people do not . I would anticipate that a lot of people will change their minds between $30 and $35(?) all things being equal fres should double when that happens and treble if $50 is in play.
In the very short term the disparity between PMs and the SP is growing and a snap back will occur. Most are assuming that it will be the PMs to fall back and indeed they may. IMO The longer this disparity grows the more energy is put into the coiled spring. Almost all technicians that i follow are calling for a pull back to 22.50 give or take in silver and maybe 1800 in gold at which point the next wave higher should occur. If it happens this way this move will be a BIG move. But this sell off has been predicted for almost 70 points in gold now. What if it never comes because the physical market it so tight and real buyers, not paper traders, are hoovering up every ounce they can find?
I am sure if you could go back a year and find a post from me then i would have been predicting much higher gold and silver prices that they are today and i would have been wrong. Given the current state of things i am more than happy to take a rain check on my forecasts and see how things play out this year. The suppression schemes will not work when the BRICS start their own game because all the physical will flow east. At some point those who make a very nice living banging silver lower will change tack and bang it higher in the face of the inevitable. If you agree then FRES is a good place to invest. IF you don't then invest elsewhere. What you must never do is invest because someone on the internet told you it was a good idea. GLA.
you must of course make your own decisions and then own your decisions.
The green plans of the whole world are going to paid for with printed money so the nominal cost is somewhat irrelevant. Base miners and PM miners will be far from the worst place to be for the next 5 years imo. Demand will go up and supply will not.