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maybe i am delusional, but inflation is not going to be transitory. At the moment the whole market is betting it will be . Days like today make me question my thesis and hard, but I remain convinced that inflation will be elevated for another 9 months at least. If the market is pricing that as transitory then i am wrong on this stock and PMs in general. Probably best to just stop looking at the one for a month and then see where things are.
The Chinese are setting up their own commodities futures exchanges. Western grip on various things is being loosened every day. It is no secret that China is sitting on an enormous pile of gold. What for? I would guess either a gold backed digital currency of a futures exchange. i guess we will find out some time in 2022
Astro the last 9 months has been a great disappointment, but look at the big picture. Has it changed? Are governments going to stop printing money or not? Are supply side shocks going away ? Will the greenification of the economy cause energy prices to drop in the next 5 years ? I look at all the above and see nothing but higher inflation , more money printing. At some point the market will want to invest into the space and they the move will be large and fast. I would rather watch my investments decay a little and be in the game than be watching from the sidelines and waiting and wondering if i can jump in at the right time. This space is doubly frustrating as it is my largest exposure, but the only theme that is not making money. I have confidence it will come good.
i find the inflation hedge argument for crypto ( outside of BTC ) to be nonsense. i mean you can invent a crypto in about 2 hours if you know what you are doing. there is no limit to the supply of them. They are extraordinary speculation instruments and have other uses for sure, but as an inflation hedge? i cannot wrap my head around that bit. i think you are spot on though a lot of inflation hedgers are being sucked into crypto who would otherwise be in PMs.
Inflation is everywhere. Food price inflation is coming too if you haven't noticed already. Canadian Agricultural output is dropping fast and as a major producer this will have implications.
Fear of inflation pushes people into gold and silver as you can witness with German gold purchases this year. All this SP needs is for a few more investors ( in percentage terms) to take notice and hedge this fear with PM miners.
It should happen at some point in the next 3-6 months as these inflation headlines keep on coming.
GLA.
Correction 14 and 15 year olds
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1433406792294354945
16 and 17 year olds being recruited to fast food restaurants, because no one else wants to work. Do they show up in stats as jobs created even though they are on short hours?
Jobless claim numbers out in 25 minutes will shed a little light on the situation too.
So FED will reduce the 120bn of purchases in November? then not raise rates for another year? Inflation is popping up everywhere. Germans, who have a history with hyper inflation are buying gold hand over fist. When does the rubber hit the road for the PM miner sector?
hi p bear, i think the market thinks we are at 'peak negative real yields' hence the lack of love for the precious metals.
It does need something to spark the market into changing its mind. No idea what that could be. Real world inflation is worse that CPI would suggest, but it doesn't seem to matter.
minchaz, your call of course, but we are on a fres board so i would expect most people to back FRES. From a pure risk management perspective you should cut both to free up cash for another purchase. diversification is one of the most basic and effective tools. Not that i follow my own advice of course.