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What do you think. will BS sell the Beetaloo to Exxon or his arabic OPEC friends or to the Japanese. Perhaps this is the reason POQ as puppet of BS does not show any activity anymore , because BS is executing already his master plan for the Beetaloo. It would be a very, very unlikely when Mr. BS does not follow his master plan for the Beetaloo and for FOG.
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/government/article/55036871/us-regulator-approves-exxonmobil-pioneer-deal-bans-pioneer-ceo-from-board?o_eid=7129H9430978H4L&oly_enc_id=7129H9430978H4L&rdx.ident[pull]=omeda|7129H9430978H4L&utm_campaign=CPS240501116&utm_medium=email&utm_source=OGJ+Daily
I don't think you are a puppet when you see the future and maybe try and see what other options are out there. I said a long time ago that Bryan Sheffield was focusing on consolidating all three companies in the Beetaloo. Scott Sheffield is his Dad, and is the one mentioned in the article, but with the completed sale of Pioneer to ExxonMobil, I would say that frees up a lot of cash to do what you want to do for the family. Scott Sheffield was formerly on the Board for Santos when they were starting in the Beetaloo . Hopefully POQ can negotiate a bidding war. I think he just wanted to prove the value to make it a little bit more expensive after the two wells are done.
Https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1997652/000119312524130878/d716518ds1.htm
Have a nice Weekend you all
TBN filing for the going public IPO in the US is ready to go all in:
Wow "We currently have on contract with Helmerich and Payne, Inc. (NYSE: HP), one H&P FlexRig® until August 2025 with a 10-year option to contract for up to five additional rigs."
With 6 rigs doing factory drilling many horizontal wells can be drilled. And you will need a real big customer for the gas, produced from these wells in the future.
TBN shares will be sold to the US market. But whats the game plan for Fog. For whom the Fog shares are earmarked in BS's monopoly Beetaloo gas game?
Gonoles
I think Mr. BS (respectively the family Sheffield) is the puppet master pulling the strings now.
POQ is getting cornered and says only: Yes Sir, when it becomes a situation to make the next steps for FOG. This guy gave up the dominating drivers seat position of FOG in the Beetaloo Basin. FOG could have been in the position of BS as puppet master of the Beetaloo and as TBN as dominating operator in the Beetaloo. Now we depend and hope the plan of Mr BS will have a good ending for Fog long term shareholders.
Although I firmly believe the Sheffield family is putting a lot of money and effort to control everything. I also feel that others are looking at what is happening in the area, and when push comes to shove -- others may look at pulling the trigger too.
This is the time to just sit back and let the cards play out. Long term -- someone will see the value as the next two wells start to prove out the value.
Golones: The problem I foresee with the Beetaloo is that we are going to be stuck in a holding pattern before we will receive an offer many of us will find acceptable. It's a bit of the 'cart before the horse' issue. Tamboran's production date is early 2026 - that is soon after the first two pilot wells are to be drilled. That gas will be going into the Amadeus pipeline and if memory serves me well, Tamboran has contracted a 40 mmcf/d take or pay contract with the pipeline. Doing an AI search on Amadeus Pipeline indicates that currently there is no excess capacity - I assume 'no excess capacity' allows for the contracted 40 mmcf/d but the question is just how much excess capacity above the 40 mmcf/d might there be? The pipeline's total capacity is only about 165 - 175 mmcf/d which isn't that large. The point I am getting at is that Tamboran will likely be holding up on drilling the SS5H, SS6H, SS7H wells. The SS4H will likely be drilled sometime in 2026 to backfill Tamboran's 40 mmcf/d contract as there will be a typical Marcellus decline curve over the first 6-8 months of these first two wells. Tamboran doesn't have the funds available nor the inclination to punch holes in the ground without a market for its production. Tamboran is correctly informing the market of first production in 2026, but in typical Tamboran fashion, they fail to tell the market the 'rest of the story'.
With all this said, any 2025/2026 offers for Falcon will be based on the next two-three wells and not the full 6 well pilot program. That's not saying an offer can't come at any time, but IMO, the big guys are not buying into something that is not well proven - they would rather pay-up when the field is better proven/understood.
From my understanding, the new APA proposed pipeline hasn't even begun permitting. Building a large enough capacity line to handle even the next 10 years production is going to be a major project and cost billions of dollars. We could be looking at 2027 - 2028 before that might be completed.
Bottom line is that to receive the price many of us want, we might be looking at a lot more patience - what's three more years at this point - assuming I'm still around :^) IMO, Falcon owes it to its stockholders to shoot straight on the current timeline on a proposed sale. No one can predict with certainty when a legit offer might be received, but I believe if we stockholders might potentially be looking at 2027 or 2028 before a sale, then the stockholders need to understand this as a possibility.
GLA
Wet, unfortunately, I and a few others have been saying this for awhile. There is no reason for anyone to buy FOG anytime soon. I also think that 27-28 is probably on the early side. There is no reason to buy FOG until it is producing revenue. We can sit here and say someone may want a piece of it just to control the gas down the line and is willing to pay for it now. Maybe that will happen- but I doubt it. Add into the issues that in 4-5 years the social and political landscape may be entirely different. When that lowball offer from BS comes in (if it does), it's going to look very good to long term shareholders. I said that before the results of the last well came in that I was hoping to cut my holdings by about half- good or bad. I haven't, because the stock price has been so pitiful. I wish I had sold at $.16 obviously but hindsight and all that. As someone pointed out, it's true I don't know who may be interested- that maybe there are many. Given the stock price and the volume however, I doubt many believe that.
I think BS will buy it way before then to keep his price down. He knows the prize and I'm sure he has the funding to do it. If POQ is busy talking on the side to other suitors which we won't find out unless someone else jumps in -- either way I see this stock going up over time. Been in for almost 20 years -- so I can still wait, but think it will come sooner than later to keep BS price down.
Yeah I'd be surprised if it hadn't been bought by Christmas 2025 if the two wells this year are decent.
Gonoles,
To me that's our best hope. That BS tries to come in w a lowball offer and it sparks several interested parties to do their own bidding. There are probably several people saying "hey let's let TMB and BS prove up these wells and we'll sit and wait". That's why I think when his lowball offer comes in- if it's the only one, the shareholders will jump on it. A double at this time would look pretty good. While 3-5 more years isn't the end of the world, when I look at the oppty cost of the cash I've had tied up for 7,8,9 years....
WetWater, just a minor correction, that I believe is correct.
Tamboran is planning for two 3km horizontals at the new SSH2/H3 site for later this year -- and then four more in 2025 for a total of six 3km horizontals before the end of 2025. This will be six new wells that will be required for the 40mm proposed flow rate going to the Amadeus pipeline in 2026. There could be a seventh drilled in 2027 to keep the production running at 40 mm cu.ft per day when the natural decline rate is taken into account. That could potentially lead to very little additional drilling after 2026 by Tamboran -- until the big new pipeline by APA to the East Coast is completed by 2028??
However, I believe that scenario may not be taking into account what the next two full length horizontals are going to indicate from that tiny -- almost Postage Stamp area of 51,000 acres -- that POQ has very wisely decided to let Tamboran and Sheffield spend $400 to $500 million Aussie dollars proving up!!
A very quick off the cuff calculation (based on 136 full length horizontals, that Riddle said could be drilled on that Postage Stamp 51,000 acres-- indicates that there is a potential of 3 TCF of recoverable gas in just that 51,000 acres alone. This would seem to indicate that there are approximately another 20 Postage Stamps in just the dark blue CORE one million acres alone!!
Those kinds of numbers would seem to indicate a massive 60 TCF of recoverable gas in just the CORE area -- with a potential of 12 TCF to Falcon's side of the equation.
Given what is indicated for recoverable gas in just the dark blue CORE area of one million acres -- I think that (with the slowdown in any new giant shale gas fields in the US, along with the bigger companies like Chesapeake buying Southwestern -- just to get added volumes and new drilling locations), -- that there is some possibility of serious interest from the US after the next two horizontals?? I think it is very possible that we might get companies like EQT, Chesapeake, or any number of mid-sized shale gas explorers that could step in and take Falcon out at a ridiculously low 50 cents per share -- after the next two horizontals?
Even though the big new APA pipeline back East hasn't even gotten to the first stage and will be at least 3 to 4 years away -- I am wondering whether big players like EQT, or Chesapeake -- or possibly others in the US that would buy out Falcon's very realistic potential of 12 TCF in the CORE area (and potentially another 12 TCF in the remaining 3 million acres), would look very closely at joining up with Tamboran and Sheffield to build a much shorter, less expensive and faster to complete -- 600 km smaller pipeline to Darwin that could feed gas into either the Inpex LNG system, into Santo's LNG plant, or alternately into a third LNG train that Riddle wants to build?? With Sheffield fully involved -- the success of the next two horizontals will be big news in Texas.
Correction on my estimate of 12 TCF of gas net to Falcon from the one million acre dark blue CORE area. After redoing the numbers it looks more like 10TCF of gas to Falcon's side of the equation -- my bad. Not sure exactly what the Falcon's share of the remaining 3.5 million acres would be, but given what we know from the Amungee H1 -- I think it is very reasonable to expect that area would hold another 12 TCF to Falcon's side of the ledger.
Correction on the numbers for the 51,000 acre Postage Stamp is: – 136 wells X 18 BCF EUR = 2.44 TCF for the 51,000 acre zone. if we increase the acreage by adding on the other DSU (which is the 21,000 acres around the SSH1 drill site) -- we get to a larger 72,000 acres for a potential of 192 wells at 18 BCF = 3.45 TCF.
That’s a massive 48 TCF over the 1 million acres. So a net 10 TCF to Falcon over the dark blue CORE area.
Appreciate the replies guys! None of us have all the information we need at this point to make an accurate call but glad to get your ideas.
Newtofo: If these next two 3K horizontals live up to expectations they will come online at about 18-19 mmcf/d. So those two wells are going to take up most of that 40 mmcf/d contract. These will typically decline over the first 6-9(?) months to the point that a third will could be drilled to backfill the contract. After that there will be no additional pipeline capacity for add'l Tamboran gas. If that is the case, then I believeTamboran will be cutting back on drilling until the gas can be sold. Maybe Tamboran will in time give us their updated plans to address this shortage of capacity. I don't believe the next 4 3km wells will be drilled until there is a place to sell the gas - that's a lot of money tied up to wait two, three or more years to begin production. Also, not an engineer, but I don't believe Tamboran would be fracking these wells if they cannot be flared/produced.
Another option I have heard is that there is a possibility that Falcon could be merged into Tamboran. I'm not sure what I think about that, but I it's something that could pop up.
Newtofo. Great job on the volumes, how many years do you think it will take to drill 3.5 million acres? 1 million? 51,000? How will the value of the gas vary over the forward life of the investment?
Thanks smallfish -- but I am only expecting just enough gas to light my cigar in the next year or two -- while Tamboran gets diluted to around 3 billion shares!! Therefore -- I couldn't give a dam about how many million years it takes to drill the remaining 3.5 million acres.
Dear Mister Smallfish I apologize in advance I use the filter