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Why The Green Transition Can’t Happen Without Natural Gas
Germany and Russia are currently just finishing up one of the largest gas pipelines, Nord stream II, to send Nat Gas into Europe.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/07/08/how-natural-gas-can-help-fuel-the-green-revolution/?sh=3ec555b93d82
Yep,fair point and it seems a lot of countries are declaring for net Zero by 2050 then realising it costs a lot of tax payers dollars to pay for it.Politicians want to get re elected and raising taxes etc isn't a popular move!
"Green", but currently building 21 new coal plants. China building 180 plus........So talking green doesn't match actions.
Bloomberg News on LNG
Global LNG market faces shake up after Japan's green shift.
It appears LNG imports could drop a third by 2030 if green shift succeeds.
Time to pull the finger out in the northern territory!
Longtime follower and first time poster. I’ve had a decent position in FOG for a few years and have bought the dips. I have never been able to post on this board for some reason but it just started working. I am hoping this year we start to get the data that supports a sale of the asset at a value that been worth waiting for. POQ acknowledged this year will define what happens going forward. And so far, we are not off the start we were hoping for. While I understand many want him to say something, he said a lot in 2015 and none of the came to fruition. So, he probably should keep his mouth shut. Finally, if the current blockage is as simple as some have assumed, I suspect we will hear something shortly. If not, assume is not good. I hope this becomes a great investment.
end "rns'
Oleo
With all due respect,the end said there was "evidence' of a blockage.
Last winter,there were speculation on this board of salinity,damaged aquifers etc....it's pure speculation as I said.The flow back was impaired by a blockage if you accept the latest RNs.
We deal with the problem in front of us now ,hope we see success and then we deal with any other like water saturation when we are told it's a problem,if at all
I am happy to deal with issues as they appear rather than looking for a problem which may or may not exist
Surely anyone investing in the oil and gas space understand s there are many and varied outcomes in this game.If you can't accept that,then ....
this game is bound to disappoint!
With totay's date I think it's not correct to say the water saturation is no longer an issue.
Still I have not seen any hint that the water saturation is low enough for a good prognosis for the hydrocarbon production. Additional we have one more problem, the new restriction or hold up in the well, that has to be solved first and before the next steps can be done.
Lets hope the planned new vertical well with diagnostic fracture injection test is a much needed success, although a horizontal well with many frac stages and a sustaining commercial production rate would be the best proof for commerciality for our Fog Beetaloo asset.
Thanks sneaky. Hope you're right.
LK
I hope I am correct but I believe yesterdays low may be a very good entry point 2 yrs down the road.A low volume day and if I was to split hairs,I prefer to hear that there may be a blockage that could be resolved favourably and not an issue with water as first suggested last December.
Re the share price, without the kyalla,to get a multiple of your investment in 2 yrs time......let it be 30p,that wouldn't be to be sneezed at.
The velkerri dry is huge,we know that.The velkerri wet will likely show very good signs,as did the kyalla of course!
In my opinion,I would be very concerned if we started seeing sustained trade below 5p because if the velkerri dry isn't worth 30p,then we have all being fooled and significant indications as to the commerciality of the velkerri are a few months away at most.
I may eat my words,I hope not.
There was always a risk with the kyalla but I was prepared for that because the geology of the velkerri seemed impressive and still does and we had a significant discovery bagged in a fraction of our holding.Nothing has changed on that score but the market and the investor s have forgotten that.
Believe me, tamboran will be blowing their trumpets hopefully before the wet season as they have an agenda ,very similar to ours.
We wait and see
I'm around the same but not adding now. I think we're going lower.
You think POQ would do an interview or something don't you? Guy has nothing to say, nothing to do, sits around all day doing what??
HOLDING 2 MILLION BUT WILL BE ADDING SHORTLY..." MAMA NEEDS NEW SHOES"
Have about 2Mil shares and holding. feel the same as you and don't invest what you can't lose.
All_
There is no question this project has been a mess. The oil and gas is full of stories like this and everyone of them has been a pain in the arse and this one is no different. But, there is considerable confirmation now the area has the makings to be productive. Yesterday I added another 500k shares and plan to do so again today. At this point it doesn't really matter who the seller is. Don't buy more than is comfortable for your personal situation, but for me I am willing to keep accumulating and thought some of might be wondering what I think. POODS
Would have been nice if Cenkos would have reiterated their valuation of FO from 2017 of $0.60 CDN rather than the simple “look through” 2x of our neighbour. Makes you wonder what value they bring to this relationship.
Thanks to James McCormack at Cenkos for the note
Recovering Unconventional Valuations – One potential commercialisation option
for Falcon following the discovery of commercial quantities of gas in the Beetaloo
involves the monetisation of its working interest. Whilst not an immediate
consideration, it is important to note that both the number and the average
US$/acre valuation of unconventional focussed deals has increased significantly
since the start of 2021 as the sector continues to recover from the impact of Covid-
19.
end
At A Significant Discount – Comparing Falcon to its Beetaloo focussed peers it is easy
to see why we believe that the value of Falcon’s Beetaloo assets is unrecognised
within the Company’s current market capitalisation. Having assigned 1.46Tcf of net
contingent resource around the Amungee NW-1H discovery in 2016, Falcon’s
acreage is further advanced than its peers and unlike both Empire Energy and
Tamboran Resources, Falcon’s 22.5% working interest is fully carried for its 2021
work programme.
Table 1: Beetaloo Peer Comparison
Company EV
(US$m)
EV/2C
(US$/boe)
EV/Prospective Resources
(US$/boe)
Falcon Oil & Gas 70.2 0.3 0.02
Empire Energy 96.1 3.4 0.02
Tamboran
Resources
166.1 N/A 0.09
Source: Cenkos Securities
At Tamboran’s current market cap (US$175m), the “look through” valuation for
Falcon would be 12.7p per share, c2.1x the current share price.
? A Significant Year for the Beetaloo – As we have previously highlighted, in addition
to Origin/Falcon’s comprehensive 2021 work programme, activity is accelerating
throughout the Beetaloo Basin:
? In EP 161, Santos and Tamboran Resources have completed the drilling of the
Tanumbirini-2H well to a depth of 4,800m, including a 1,000m horizontal section
within the Middle Velkerri B shale. The rig will now commence drilling of the
Tanumbirini-3H well to a similar TD, prior to fracture stimulating both wells with
10-20 stages and an expected 180-day flow test. Preliminary flow test results
from both the 2H and 3H wells are anticipated in Q4/21.
EP 161 lies adjacent to EP 76, where the Falcon/Origin JV will drill the Velkerri 76
vertical pilot well in 2021. However, unlike the Velkerri 76 well which will be
targeting the potentially more lucrative Velkerri shale liquids rich gas play, both
the Tanumbirini-2H and Tanumbirini-3H wells will be targeting the Velkerri shale
dry gas play – a play in which Falcon/Origin have already discovered 6.6Tcf of 2C
gross contingent resources through the Amungee NW-1H well, drilled in
2015/2016. The 6.6Tcf of 2C resources only covers an area of 1,968km2,
immediately surrounding the Amungee NW-1H well, with any success by
Santos/Tamboran likely to extend the Velkerri shale dry gas play fairway c100km
to the east. Santos have previously reported excellent testing results from the
Tanumbirini-1 vertical well, delivering an IP rate of >10mmscf/d with an average
rate of 1.1mmscf/d over 19 days.
On completion of the Tanumbirini-2H and Tanumbirini-3H wells, Santos and
Tamboran anticipate drilling two additional horizontal wells on EP 161 during
2022 (Inacumba 1H and 2H) to further delineate any additional resources,
capturing key data and informing future development activity.
? In EP 187, Empire Energy has executed a four-stage fracture stimulation at the
Carpentaria-1 vertical well. Over an initial 72-hour test period, the well achieved
a peak flow rate of 0.5MMscf/d, with an average flow rate of 0.365MMscf/d. As
Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd
Kyalla 117 Well Update
Activity has recommenced on the clean-up of the Kyalla 117 well. whilst
this has allowed the Kyalla 117 to begin flowing again without assistance
for intermittent periods, production has not been sustained and there is
evidence of a potential downhole flow restriction. Operations will now be
temporarily paused while the cause of the restriction is investigated. In
the meantime, the Falcon/Origin JV remains on track to drill the Velkerri
76 well and commence a further extended production test at the
Amungee NW 1H well in the coming weeks.
Whilst frustrating, its important to note that the downhole restriction
could be due to many reasons, including a simple blockage in the
wellbore. Having flowed gas to surface, its apparent that the Kyalla liquids
rich gas play contains moveable hydrocarbons, and given the potential
prize its worth exploring every possible avenue in order to achieved
sustained unassisted production.
Intermittent Production – The intermittent production at the Kyalla 117 well could
be due to a host of different reasons, and whilst some of these could be regional or
play related issues, others could be solely related to just the Kyalla 117 well (eg a
blockage in the wellbore). Given the size of the prize, and the potential of the Kyalla
liquids rich gas play we are encouraged by Origin’s persistence to explore every
avenue in order to clean-up the well in preparation for extended production testing.
Activity Across the Portfolio – Whilst investigations are ongoing at the Kyalla 117
well, the JV will drill the Velkerri 76 pilot well, targeting the Velkerri liquids rich gas
play along the south-eastern flank of the Beetaloo. Core, log and diagnostic fracture
injection test data will be collected across the Velkerri and analysed over the wet
season - the results of which will determine the 2022 work programme.
In the coming weeks, the JV will also return to the Amungee NW-1H discovery well
to determine if all frack stages contributed to the initial extended production test
conducted in 2016. Casing deformation after the 7th frack stage of the Amungee NW-
1H well may have prevented the final seven frack stages from contributing to the
extended production test, meaning that the 1.1MMscf/d flow rate may only be
reflective of five frack stages (instead of all twelve).
cont.....