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Group cash £221m of which £169m is unrestricted - so big anomaly as trading at around cash and so there is alot of headroom for rises, hence why the £25million buyback program has been initiated, don't foregt IPO around £4 and trading is very robust, particularly Flexipay business nearly quadrupling. I see a big rerate coming
I guess today's raise says a lot. Market makers aren't going to let the price rise easily now, as they control the market. With 25 million buys needing to be executed under 45p, I don't expect this stock to move much higher anytime soon. GLA
Thinking of a good exit price and I agree, this has legs to go to 60/70p very quickly.
The £25 million buyback is currently underway. Look at those large trades. I can sell my entire holding in one second for a premium price.
13:01:44 44.38182 100,000 44.38k O
12:01:24 40.77178 250,000 101.93k O
It has to make it between 70p-£1 I’m sure being watching this for such a longtime
Significant Buyback: A £25m buyback represents a sizable chunk (over 15%) of the company's current market cap. This can signal strong confidence from management in the company's future prospects.
Growth Potential: The Flexipay element adds to the appeal, implying possible increased revenue and growth for the company.
Potential Share Reduction: The buyback could eliminate a substantial portion of outstanding shares, leading to increased scarcity.
Average Trading Volume: Average daily volume appears sufficient to support the buyback without excessive market disruption.
Where Does Fair Value Sit?
This is the crucial question to answer! Here are some considerations:
IPO Price: While a useful reference point, the IPO price (£4) may not reflect current fair value. Market conditions, company performance, and sector changes all factor in since the initial public offering.
Management Actions: The magnitude of the buyback suggests they believe the shares are undervalued, hinting at where they believe fair value may lie.
Growth Estimates: Consider Flexipay's potential impact. Higher growth projections would usually justify a higher valuation.
ShearClass 👍
A £25m buyback on a share with a current market cap of £160m is highly unusual, add in the growth element via Flexipay and it becomes an even better opportunity.
I've just had a quick look at trading volume over the last 12 months, if we strip out the 19m shares traded on one day in mid Feb + 2 other high volume days where multi million block trades went through then total volume in the last 12 months was 50.9m shares. We can estimate total value traded by multiplying this by the daily close price, which gets you £21.9m.
If shares were to remain at the current 44p then the £25m buyback could sweep up 56.8m shares, reducing total share count to 305m. This volume of shares across a 260 day trading year equals 218k bought each and every day, vs the 204k average over the last 12 months (excluding the 3 days of block trades).
The main question is where do they think fair value sits? With the IPO price of £4 and no dilution since, it's surely a long way north of here...
Big buys landing now!
It got to 67p last year at which point I thought it would continue to £1.00. Instead it sank to the low 0.20s. I expect it yo get further this time round.
Strong not str
Going to be a good str few days here now
Well my couple of months comment looks silly ... I'll claim a typo and say I meant hours. I imagine with a bit of time this should get to that year high number of 60p or so.
The below really caught my attention, looks very interesting indeed considering the overall market cap + share buyback
"Our newer FlexiPay business, which helps small businesses manage their cashflows, delivered strong growth in 2023, building on a successful full launch of the product in 2022. Transactions near quadrupled to £234m, compared to £59m in 2022, as we saw FlexiPay quickly become an essential and ongoing part of customers cashflow management toolkit. We more than trebled the number of active accounts to c.6,500 at the end of 2023 and we have been encouraged by the increasingly predictable repeat behaviour among users. We also continued to innovate and expand our product set in 2023. In the second half we launched our integrated FlexiPay card. Whilst this remains at an early stage, with its launch, customers can now borrow, pay and spend with Funding Circle."
Should be positive when that buyback represents 25% of what’s out there at todays SP. Will be interesting to see what the sale of the US business brings in as well.
Buyback could be defensive play as well. As they go through the US process, some might try low ball offers which they might need to defend.
Will buy some more at open if nothing too much happens to SP. Could look very good in a couple of months.
Share buyback announced! Very positive.
Two of my buys are showing as sells ... felt that SP was too good not to top up. Just looks like some games at play. Roll on Thursday. If they have managed to maintain increase in the US then this business will attract some interest. Feel this is an opportunity to be in close/at the bottom.
One week until the full year results. The share price seems to reflect a very downbeat sentiment.
I wonder if it’s T.Rowe Price and they have sold out completely ,they halved their holding last year. Good to see the shares up on huge volume.Could a takeover be on the cards with assets of 70p a share
Someone's just dumped about 18 million shares. I wonder who it was. I expect a TR1 on Monday.
Hi JW
The SYNT is a bit crowded this morning! I have had a look at FCH, the earnings and EPS are not the most consistent I’ve seen. However a share that has been good to me in the past does carry merit. Almost good as, the trend is your friend. Last year the SFO, CEO doubled their share holding. The results not until early march. I shall wit till closer to that date. Have you got anything else on them?
This looks too cheap now. Been here before on a rise to over 50 from memory so back for a similar journey hopefully.
Hopefully March report will show some traction on the profitability side.
Yep, The person / institution who bought £1.4m worth has really set things off. Just glad I'm in sub 40 now! Holding till March announcement then will decide.
Someone's buying big. Not seen those size of buys for quite a long time.
Been hovering around 36-39 range for some time now. Hoping it heads towards 45-50 and post full year results in March, should be a sizeable increase given subdued price and good performance (UK and US)